Halfords Share Discussion Threads

[glavey] 28/2/2024 09:54

That could be the divi gone.

[bookbroker] 28/2/2024 09:49

Perfect for a take-out, refinance the business with tight cost control, and you have a great business. No reason to be such a complicated business with the likes of EuroParts and GSF supplying parts.

[darrin1471] 28/2/2024 09:35

Lodge tyre business HFD bought is 90% B2B and has 248 mobile fitting vans so it is not the same as HFD car servicing.
The sudden drop in PBT shows lack of financial controls and forecasts.
Poor free cash flow in the last 2 financial years with increasing debt/ebitda ratio has to put the dividend under pressure or under threat.
I hold no position in HFD, long or short. Just watching.

[buoycat] 28/2/2024 09:33

The January trading update was hardly positive to be honest.

[bookbroker] 28/2/2024 09:28

This will now interest P/E., strip out the cycling side and you have a well-placed auto business. No point trying to compete with Evans in the family/kids sector, and the specialist retailers of racing/hybrid/electric bikes. Yorkshire, there are numerous very high end retailers of marquee brands. Stick to motors in essence, tyre shops and service centres. Protyre and Kwik Fit busy all the time!

[ayl30] 28/2/2024 09:26

Can't see the FD being around for long, obviously needs some new beads in the abacus!

[finkie] 28/2/2024 09:22

Good call 21ant prob best to stay clear until they get some clarity on how to address numbers to the market. This is shocking and they are being punished accordingly.

[smithie6] 28/2/2024 09:17

From update on 25th January

"Chief Executive Officer Graham Stapleton said: ".........the business is very well-placed to drive significant profit growth once those markets recover. Trading in Q4 has begun strongly....."

To provide an update 4 weeks later with a massive reduction in PBT for the year shows that either the previous update was a known intentional lie or that GS has no idea really what is going on inside Halfords & that Halfords is unable to calculate/monitor it's profit numbers week to week or month to month.

Numerous parts of the RNS just have no logic or sense at all.
eg 1) 'car servicing is seeing growth but sales of tyres is down' !!
Surely one of the biggest parts of Halfords car servicing is the sale of tyres !!

2) the text says that margins on bicycle sales is down due to increasing competition, yet the profit forecast for profit for '24-'25 assumes that the profit margin will recover, despite giving no justification at all for that happening (imo it won't).

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I don't know Halfords RNSs or accounts very well but personally I think the shares are currently univestible at any price since it appears that the exec dirs have no idea what is going on inside the business. And if the profit implodes if there is some rain then it's not where I would want to invest. (Although one strategy might be to invest when it is raining & sell when it is sunny !! , if the profit & share price follows that !)

[darrin1471] 28/2/2024 09:12

Profit forecast falls £10m in 4 weeks since last update.
£100m equals the loss in confidence.

[buoycat] 28/2/2024 09:08

Have I got this right? Profits to fall by £10million, market cap falls by £100 million.

[s34icknote] 28/2/2024 09:04

Think the cold weather in dec early Jan perked trade up and they thought it might continue ! But storm after storm washed that hope away !

[sooty snipes] 28/2/2024 08:49

That's a hell of a turnaround from the January 25th update. Something is definitely off kilter. The FD needs to explain what's gone on here

[s34icknote] 28/2/2024 08:46

What's the new eps ?

[blueball] 28/2/2024 08:14

Thats a bad fall.

[eigthwonder] 28/2/2024 08:09

The inability to forecast has been in evidence for several years now - it's the most consistent thing about the company

[ayl30] 28/2/2024 07:52

HFD, that's a huge reduction in anticipated performance since the Q3 update only a month ago. Wonder if they have a monitoring problem in their finance department, I think the FD has a lot of questions to answer.Will be interesting to see mkt reaction, only a small holding for me thankfully

[darrin1471] 28/2/2024 07:41

At our Q3 trading update on 25 January 2024 we indicated that we expected Underlying Profit Before Tax1 (“PBT”) for the 52-week period ending 29 March 2024 to be between £48m and £53m, assuming markets did not weaken further in Q4. Since that update, we have seen a further material weakening in three of our four core markets (i.e. Cycling, Retail Motoring and Consumer Tyres), resulting in a significant drop in like-for-like (“LFL”) revenue growth in our Retail business.

As a result, we now expect PBT to fall in the range of £35-40m. This reduction in profit expectations is driven by two key factors:

Both the Cycling and Retail Motoring markets have been impacted by a combination of continued weak customer confidence and unusually mild and very wet weather, which affected footfall into stores and sales of categories such as winter and car cleaning products. Volume in the Retail Motoring market fell year-on-year by 5.1% pts in January (vs an increase year-on -year of 0.2% in Q3); volume in the Cycling market fell year-on-year by 8.0% pts in January (vs a decline of 5.1% pts in Q3); and volume in the Consumer Tyres market fell by 4.3% pts in January (vs a decline of 2.6% pts in Q3).


The Cycling market has become more challenging and competitive as it continues to consolidate. Promotional participation has increased, and more customers are purchasing on credit, leading to weaker gross margins than previously anticipated.
We continued to deliver good growth in our resilient and strategically important Autocentres business. Although the Consumer Tyres market worsened in January, we saw a strengthening Service, Maintenace and Repair (“SMR”) market and we continue to see good customer demand in this area.

Our FY24 PBT forecast assumes the same challenging market conditions continue for the rest of Q4, including through our peak Easter cycling period in March. We have continued to take decisive action on cost, but in the short period between now and the end of the financial year this will not be sufficient to offset the significant market deterioration we have seen.

Looking ahead to FY25, we remain cautious on market recovery in the short-term, and the current significant volatility in market conditions means that forecasting accurately is challenging. Notwithstanding this, we anticipate that underlying PBT in FY25 will be broadly in line with that forecast in FY24 assuming that: 1) There is marginal year-on-year growth in our core markets, with trading conditions seen in Q4 proving anomalous; and 2) The Cycling market normalises and margin pressure dissipates through the year. FY25 PBT will be supported by cost savings that more than offset net inflationary headwinds.

Whilst we have reduced our profit guidance as a result of very challenging and exceptional short-term market conditions, we remain confident in our strategy and longer-term growth prospects. When our core markets recover, the platform we have built leaves us exceptionally well-placed to succeed.

[darrin1471] 28/2/2024 07:35

RNS missing on my ADVFN

[s34icknote] 28/2/2024 07:27

Sales significantly lower !!!! Trading deteriorating !!!160 open !

[eigthwonder] 28/2/2024 07:20

Car crash of an update

[glavey] 22/2/2024 06:58

[551]

Very droll.

[schofi2] 21/2/2024 21:31

Possibly taking on Wiggle....

[21ant] 21/2/2024 20:28

Sold out here last week, Somethings not right. If this is a bid rumour and nothing materialises then I think there's a sharp pull south due. Finances look weak and I'm normally a holder. Don't trust GS anymore

[fenners66] 21/2/2024 17:52

directors have rejected a bid as they feel it overvalues the company....