Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[beernut1] 28/11/2024 11:13

Not 100% sure but Bah bah black sheep once posted that Gkp block plus adjacent blocks were equal to Kirkuk's oilfield. .
Bp moving in to kirkuk now.

Gla

[habshan] 28/11/2024 11:07

"Habshan, yes AKIPUR would be justified in the doubting the ethics of the ICG however it would be a simple matter to stop production if felt necessary."

What concerns me is this:-

Let's say that APIKUR agree to the proposal to restart exports now and then have their costs determined by an outside consultant further down the line. What then happens if 7 of their members are happy with what they are being offered but one (GKP for instance but it could be any one of them) isn't.

Would that IOC then withdraw their production and continue fighting on their own.

The pipeline would be open so would Baghdad care that one IOC had been sidelined and that that a small amount of exports were lost and being used to supply the local market.

They would have their northern export route, they would have met their obligation to BP, and Turkey would be happy.

APIKUR need to ensure that they aren't divided, they need to act as one, and that means NO EXPORTS until everyone knows what they are going to be paid and are happy with it.

As soon as I saw that proposal I saw a potential divide and rule tactic.

Fortunately Caggins subsequently said "Written agreements and contracts agreed and signed before exports".

And in my opinion that is why Baghdad and others say they don't expect exports to restart until the new year. Once the amendment has been approved by parliament the consultant will have 60 days to come up with some numbers and that takes us to February.

Let's see.

[beernut1] 28/11/2024 10:57

Hi Habshan. Thanks too for your posts.
I can copy and paste news articles but what you do in keeping all the sh I t kickers away is brilliant.
Though you’d been closed down a couple of weeks ago when you stopped posting.
So nice to see you back.
Gla

[highlander7] 28/11/2024 10:40

So far as I am aware the Consultants are only there to assess production costs within 60 days. Everything else should be in the new contracts that have already been agreed in principle with AKIPUR.

Why would they be "low" ? I would expect them to be realistic. I also understand the concerns of the ICG after prior corruption issues with the Kurds.

Yes I agree that there is plenty scope here for yet more delays.

[lonely hermit] 28/11/2024 10:30

Hi H7,

///My understanding is the pipeline will open with the current agreement in place then negotiations will continue over the cost of production when the Independent Consultants (who are looking at this) make a recommendation.///

I assume any 'independent consultant' would establish the lifting costs (likely to be low in all cases). However, they will also need to take into consideration the legal financial arrangements that each company has entered into with the KRG.

I can see the above dragging on somewhat with the current oilers. It could be $16 a barrel for a while. Regardless, this figure and the new guaranteed financial arrangements when agreed and signed, puts our valuation (and many) others in a different ballpark.

I would imagine the above process would speed up massively if the ICG were dealing with a major!

:-)

[bobgray51] 28/11/2024 10:30

One does wonder how many of these 714390 posts are the never ending bang gone takeover tomorrow crew. I suspect we are probably at about 10 percent useful comments. Mostly by you. Thank you. The rest seems to be bickering between the lunatics.

[highlander7] 28/11/2024 10:13

Habshan, yes AKIPUR would be justified in the doubting the ethics of the ICG however it would be a simple matter to stop production if felt necessary.

I dont think it would come to that based on what appears to be a major change of position in the ICG.

IMO

[habshan] 28/11/2024 10:10

"We’re a team and all posting when possible between work / home commitments."

Hi Beernut, I'd like to be associated with that remark.

I find it hard to imagine another board with 714390 posts spanning almost 15 years and it's all thanks to posters like you Punter and our many other newshounds down the years who have tirelessly scoured the internet to keep the rest of us informed and given us the basis for discussion and debate on a daily basis and created THE place for anyone out there wanting to know what's going on with GKP, it's only because of what you and others post that we're able to make sense of what has been and remains a very complex situation.

Anybody wanting to write the book when this is all over should make this board's archive their first port of call as everything is there.

So well done and much appreciated.

[fardels bear] 28/11/2024 10:09

I'm not on LSE. It does my hypertension no good.

[beernut1] 28/11/2024 09:55

Highlander
Your posts are spot on and equal to all mine and all positive poster's.
We’re a team and all posting when possible between work / home commitments.
I too have been here 15 ish years but hopefully we’ll all meet at the TO party and laugh about it all with lots of money in our pockets.

GLA

[nestoframpers] 28/11/2024 09:28

Ever thus in the big oil arena . Shenanigans have been constant throughout the GKP saga, the filthy animals have made them look as bad as possible , a psycho ops. The dogs havent been called off yet.

[fardels bear] 28/11/2024 09:15

Just 25 posts in your four year history on ADVFN. That's not even cub level. You are an Ursine disgrace, sir..I rather think you're another, very amateurish troll.

[elbigbear] 28/11/2024 09:10

Even at this stage there are too many filthy animals around here.

[bang_gone] 28/11/2024 09:09

Ps it's all irrelevant anyway , as the company has long since made an agreed takeover sale.The AGM resolutions were the final confirmation that

[bang_gone] 28/11/2024 09:08

No doubt the contractual arrangements required have been made clear.Already.Each company will have different costs of production hence the consultants.$16 represents a 70% increase in revenue for Gulf.So provided it's paid in advance , plus agreement on back payments, I expect a restart , then normalisation of long term numbers.

[bobgray51] 28/11/2024 09:05

OPEC meeting has been pushed back to next Thursday

[habshan] 28/11/2024 09:04

Highlander - "My understanding is the pipeline will open with the current agreement in place then negotiations will continue over the cost of production when the Independent Consultants (who are looking at this) make a recommendation."

That's what is proposed in the amendment, with an interim $16 being paid until the independent consultant comes up with their opinion on the production costs of each field after which the per barrel payment will be adjusted up or down accordingly.

I've never been able to see the IOCs going for it, because they would be agreeing to start production for export without knowing how much they were going to be paid for it, their payment could be adjusted up to for instance $18 or down to $14.

So as APIKUR say, the proposed amendment is a good start but they won't start producing until they have written agreements and the individual IOCs have agreed their new terms and signed their new contracts, and that means knowing how much they'll be paid, not some wooly promise of $16 but maybe more or maybe less, you can't sign a contract on those terms.

So I can't see any oil being exported until after the independant consultant has done his work and each IOC has agreed to what is being offered, only then can contracts be signed.

"Myles Caggins, spokesperson for APIKUR, told Rudaw that they see the amendment as a "good step" but "Before we begin exporting oil, we must have written agreements."

"So right now, we are seeing Article 12 of the budget law in Parliament. After that, we need to have written agreements, and each individual company must agree to these terms under the new contracts," he said."

[bang_gone] 28/11/2024 08:31

Yes an interim arrangement, then within 60 days individual IOC and independent consultants to establish forward long term terms.

[highlander7] 28/11/2024 08:29

My understanding is the pipeline will open with the current agreement in place then negotiations will continue over the cost of production when the Independent Consultants (who are looking at this) make a recommendation.

[mmt1] 28/11/2024 08:27

I think this is the most progress we have seen since the ITP shut down... Vote next week is more crucial than today me thinks, then talk with the IOC's can actually begin. If they think we will just restart at their will and at whatever price they say with no agreement on backpayments they must be barking!

Sunday OPEC+ meeting also...