Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[blackbear] 15/10/2016 14:10

This stock is going nowhere. check out MRS

[deanroberthunt] 15/10/2016 14:03

wtf went on here over the last few years, jeez.....better script here than Eastenders

[cutthecagain] 15/10/2016 13:59

The Prize: I got the impression that a blogger has been sending you personal details about another blogger by DM. Are you able to forward that to me by direct message? TIA

The Trump punt isn't looking good IMO.

[joseki] 15/10/2016 13:43

What an accusation from the LinkedIn Joanna Souttcott analyst masquerader :)

The answers were in the Muppets Munch

[joseki] 15/10/2016 13:41

The answers were in the Muppets Munch

[oil_investor] 15/10/2016 13:38

deanrobert: it's run by the board. Two directors have gone on the past month (one without the traditional thank-you) and three new ones have been appointed. I think it is very likely that the CEO will be making further changes to the management at various levels. Depending upon how one assesses the investments made by the bondholders - and their "lost upside" from the original Convertibles and Warrants - the shares they have received through the restructuring stand them in at anything from 2p to 4p/5p each, on the average. Why would they slaughter that investment now, with the Oil Price strengthening, ISIS (insofar as it actually exists as presented) being pushed out, the feeder pipeline being close, the payment of arrears being expected under the IMF/World Bank arrangements, production increases on the horizon, post-restructuring finances potentially showing a profit, etc?

[deanroberthunt] 15/10/2016 13:27

OI

on an equal footing it sounds massively undervalued.

trouble is bondholders are in conrol, and do they really want to run a penny stock. considering was has transpired before.

[1712notout] 15/10/2016 13:22

Correct owd
Now the company has been stolen
It's destiny in the hands of note holders
Let's hope for the best
All the other bs irrelevant
'Twas ever thus

[oil_investor] 15/10/2016 13:21

deanrobert: my understanding is that Shaikan production can be lifted, with axrelatively modest investment, to a level of some 80,000 to 100,000 bopd. Thus would involve installing some Electric Submersible Pumps, drilling maybe a couple of additional production wells into the Upper Jurassic (easy and cheap to do, a small trailer-mounted rig was used to drill Shaikan-3) and expanding the surface facilities with two or three add-on modules. The current production cost over barrel is no more than $4 (one of the lowest in the world, Jon Ferrier having reduced it from $5 last year) with I think some further possible reduction as an objective. There is also some $600 million due to come to GKP for arrears (including a payment due from the KRG's exercise of part of the Back-In Rights) and Cost Recovery for the monies already invested in capital plant.

[deanroberthunt] 15/10/2016 13:08

was it ever in anyones hands?

[deanroberthunt] 15/10/2016 13:06

so it has the same production as Enquest, but with only $100m debt, instead of $1.8bn....and their mcaps are very similar.

granted one operates in a safer and less corrupt environment, relatively speaking

[wildrider7] 15/10/2016 13:04

Thank you Oil-Investor for adding a bit of meat on the bone (of contention)

* 'fracture porosity: my question is very simple. If the 2012 Ryder Scott Fracture Report supports the ERC 0.4% "adopted" figure, then why haven't GKP published it?'

=> we know ERCE admitted plucking this 0.4% figure out of thin air.
clearly they were not privy of the Ryder Scott study or they would have referenced it on their CPR1. Now as you rightly point out, if it matched the 0.4% figure there wouldn't be any need to hide it.
talking about hiding, and the vanishing presentations from the GKP web site, are we surprised that webcast in which John Stafford says that only a "0.2% increase to the Shaikan Fracture Porosity would add 800 million barrels *overnight* to the Reserves."

we have a copy of this webcast, we have emailed the company a link to it after they told us it was lost without back-up! What shall we make of their refusal to re-instate it?

* Sargelu net pay: DGA and Ryder Scott gave very high figures for this. Someone at GKP chopped the figure back in the couple of weeks after the Excalibur Claim was received. What are the facts?

* water in the fractures: Stafford disagreed with ERC about this

* Triassic issues: both Jon Ferrier and Stafford both told me in person (not over the phone, or via electronic media) that there was new evidence which showed that the 30 August 2015 CPR assumption about the Kurrechine Dolomite was incorrect. I can - if I so choose - be very explicit about what they said. But the recent CPR update seems to disregard that new evidence, as if it didn't exist.

[oil_investor] 15/10/2016 12:58

deanrobert: OK. There are four (possibly five) blue posters constantly ticking-down just about everything I post. Two of them tend to appear together, the others following. Subtle it most certainly is not! Nor is it hard to work out who they are.

You pose two key questions. And they are very good questions, which are at the very heart of the oil business.

#1: does GKP have oil that can be extracted and sold? Most certainly. Current production at Shaikan is running at some 40,000 barrels per day of dry (no water) oil. It would be more, but there are some infrastructure constraints. Since 1 January 2015, all the oil produced at Shaikan has been paid for (the August 2016 invoice is a little overdue). So far, approaching 30 million barrels of dry Shaikan oil gas been produced. GKP preciously said that this level of output would rise by a factor of at least 10, under a Full Field Development. The current production is from Phase Zero, not even Phase One lol. The KRG will be connecting a 750,000+ bopd feeder pipeline from Shaikan to run the 10 miles to Kurdistan Pumping Station 2 entry point on the main Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline. That feeder will take Atrush and Swara Tika oil (maybe 150,000 bopd longer-term?) leaving maybe 600,000 bopd headroom for Shaikan. GKP really do not like talking, these days, about the longer-term expected production level at Shaikan.

#2: how much recoverable oil is there in Shaikan? Er...it is IMO a colossal oil accumulation. It covers c. 150 square kilometres and it has an oil column of over 1000 metres (three times the height of the London Shard) in the highly-fractured Jurassic formations alone.

More smoke and mirrors than at a magicians' convention with the smoke machines pumping out more fog than we used to get at the Marquee Club when Arthur Brown's Kingdom Come were on stage lol

[wildrider7] 15/10/2016 12:43

lardner23

why don't you do a search on 'John Stafford's other half'
it was first Joseki that mentioned about 'stafford other half'
in post #478040
which as you would expect has long since been modified by Dodgy Joseki

a copy of the original post can be found in #486071

hope this help


PS: why do the Shag'ger feel the need to modify their posting history?

#DodgyShaggers

[deanroberthunt] 15/10/2016 12:37

make that 3