Griffin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[malcolmmm] 21/12/2017 18:03

Nice recovery, it was difficult to buy in volume today.

[mariopeter] 20/12/2017 21:53

$50m PAT full year on those assumptions . Be interesting to see. If they have offset the $16m at half time then $34m PAT and prudence set me down at $30m. My maths exactly.

Better to build up the other way with volumes and prices but who knows volumes and quality of mine throughput.

As you say why use uk funds to pay local debt. My thoughts were to enable that debt rns but who knows..........

[phillis] 20/12/2017 18:51

so on to tonight's task
take the first half cash flow
assume the cash (outside the country) stays the same
rebuild the cash flow back up to PAT(assume tax is paid as earned)
put in the major number of $35m into bank loans paid off

and what do you get for PBT/PAT

Answers by 8am tomorrow

[phillis] 20/12/2017 12:20

Mario
Indeed
I believe the cash balances to be outside China and thus have not been repatriated and used to pay down local Chinese debt
We shall have to wait and see

[polaris] 20/12/2017 11:47

You need to take into account the smelter charges. H2 2017 Zn price is $3-500 above that for H1 so there will be an increase in revenues but not 50%. It is all down to the production at this stage as Zn price looks to be stabilising in the $3-3.25k/t range.

Looking at annual Zn chart then average H1 price is around $2700 and average price received is $2082. for H2 let's assume the charges are a %age of metal in concentrate, so GFM get 77.1% of the Zn price (you can equally go for a fixed smelter charge in any calcs). The current H2 average price is around $3100, which gives price received around $2400. With constant production you are looking at an uplift of around $6m in H2 revenues, or close to $8m using a fixed smelter charge.

The falling LME Zn stock may mean a further price rise but i am sure that several mines on care and maintenance will come back into production during 2018 and so you cannot depend on a shortage squeezing the price higher.

Secondary revenues from Au, Ag and Pb are likely to remain in a similar range to H1.

However you look at it, GFM is now churning out a decent cashflow and the forward prospects look good, especially now the company is debt free. Zone II application approval is key to really ramping up the revenues through increased output. It 'can' almost double current mill capacity, assuming that will be the bottleneck on any approval.

[ukgeorge] 20/12/2017 11:23

Zinc revenues before royalties and resource taxes in the six months to 30th June 2017 were $40,259,000 (2016; $15,798,000) with 19,336 tonnes (2016: 13,414 tonnes) of zinc metal in concentrate sold with an average price received after smelter charges of $2,082 per tonne up 90% on that received in 2016 of $1,090.


Current zinc price is $1.465 or $3210/t :)

So if zinc production is kept at 19300 revenue from zinc alone could be over $60M during H1 next year. :)

[gbh2] 20/12/2017 11:19

Low volume drift atm, and SP's never seem to drift up ;)

[mariopeter] 20/12/2017 11:15

PhillisThe results maybe somewhere between our projections . There was also 15.7m cash at bank at half time.

[rose_by_another_name] 20/12/2017 09:34

Iwebsharedealing charge £200 to open an account.
I'm looking to leave TD/iii as well. They used to
be good. IG seem a possibility.

[ukgeorge] 20/12/2017 08:56

Iwebsharedealing are £5 a trade with no annual fees for ISA or share dealing account. They are now part of Halifax.

Does anyone have a good broker for Canadian and Australian equities? I use to use TDwaterhouse, but, iii has now taken over and are going to charge £22.50 a quarter. Which is very annoying as I rarely trade them.

[gbh2] 20/12/2017 08:39

"£4.95 with AJ Bell"

But what are the Annual Fees?

[phillis] 20/12/2017 08:33

Mario
They made $15m in the first half
Second half should be (nearly) double that

[rose_by_another_name] 20/12/2017 08:15

I have ISAs of course, but I have more
investments than will fit within the limits.
I've held some of my Griffin from before
there were ISAs.

[mariopeter] 20/12/2017 08:15

Phillis I said 2017 not 2018.

[roguetreader] 20/12/2017 08:14

Phillis
No I'm happy with your numbers and my arithmetic, gives an interesting forward PE.

[phillis] 19/12/2017 22:17

£4.95 with AJ Bell

Rogue
Are you asking me to confirm your arithmetic?

[gbh2] 19/12/2017 20:42

"A bad person for not having it in an ISA"

Especially now IG offer a No Fee ISA with trades of £8 ;))

[roguetreader] 19/12/2017 17:54

So Phillis on your numbers I make it a current forward PE of around 3.23 for 2018?

[up just a little bit] 19/12/2017 16:35

Don't forget to to back out the interest payments

[phillis] 19/12/2017 16:30

Mario
after 1st half GFM had bank loans (gross) of $35m having posted PAT of $15m
for 2nd half I estimate PAT of $30m

so without any throughput improvements and - all other things staying the same (they never do!)- we should be looking at $60m for 2018
Do the sums again

[up just a little bit] 19/12/2017 16:06

What a wonderful thing to fret about!

[ukgeorge] 19/12/2017 16:05

Only a bad person for not having it in an ISA :)

[rose_by_another_name] 19/12/2017 15:54

I am already fretting about the CGT.
Does that make me a bad person?

[up just a little bit] 19/12/2017 15:49

Looks like a way to go yet without the license with a PE value of Gfm's peers. With the license then we are going to be pigs rolling in muck.

[malcolmmm] 19/12/2017 15:30

looks like these may tic up shortly