Griffin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[up just a little bit] 15/12/2017 08:45

Indeed why don't you take the alba chat back to the alba BB

[galoot] 15/12/2017 08:45

Cantor Fitzgerald today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Griffin Mining (LON:GFM) and raised its price target to 166p (from 137p).

[ramellous] 15/12/2017 08:39

Glad I got in here couple of months ago. Great companies like this. Quietly multi bagging and hardly any activity on the boards.. Great stuff.

[mpclag] 15/12/2017 07:38

Already hold lots of Alba, but thinking of pumping more in. The case for share price growth is compelling.

[stephen2010] 14/12/2017 22:03

ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following:

MARKET CAP PUZZLE
❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed
companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and
JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these
companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value.
Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG
are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse
Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba
has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only
about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities,
the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable.

VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note
uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The
Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from
Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own
assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks
factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived
for Horse Hill.

Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have
adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of
$223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value
of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS
and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very
rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder
value.

We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which
4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth
of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we
recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential
15 times plus uplift from the current share price.

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/12/2017 21:49

19:43
Re: GFM, Now Debt Free, Throwing Off Cas...
millwallfan
As I have commented before my calcs suggest that the debt repaid in 2017 alone equates to about 18p per share. Apart from some additional capital expenditure to enhance the mine infrastructure and retaining some to start building reserves ready to increase production on licence issue then the obvious application of such profits in 2018 will be to announce a dividend. I would hope this would be a minimum of 6p but could be as high as 10-12p. Given the chairmans statement that the licence would enable production to double, with only revenue costs increasing accordingly, then the potential future profit COULD reach 40p per share so we could even dream of 20p dividend. The future is currently bright but with the licence is stellar. Presumably the chinese authorities will also benefit from the licence issue through increased tax revenues so a win,win . Let's hope there's no lonmin or glenmore type predator eyeing us up- but at least from this point of company stability and £1 share price any hostile bid would need to be at a significant premium - £1.50 - £2 I would guess.

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/12/2017 21:43

nice chart courtesy of sourhills on iii

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/12/2017 21:40

My calculations could be wrong, would welcome a second opinion

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/12/2017 21:39

Could have cash pile of 28.8p per shr according to my forecasts for next year

This from iii

Tue 09:03
Re: GFM, Now Debt Free........
millwallfan
The debt repayment this year equates to about 18 pence per share. Accepting companies never pay out all profit as dividend it must surel look like a dividend of 5 to 9 pence next year which on any sensible P/E ratio must take the share price up well over the pound - providing no major mine accident or significant drop in commodity prices. And then just imagine if the issue of the extended licence enables doubling of production with mostly fixed overhead costs and only increased variable the profit margin will be superb !!!!! But let's not get over excited eh. Lol

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/12/2017 20:50

World Zinc stockpiles to run out according to this article?



Any impact on the refined zinc market is months away and the size of the restart should be seen in the context of the International Lead and Zinc Study Group's most recent assessment of a 401,000-tonne metal deficit over the first 10 months of this year. That deficit is mirrored in falling exchange stocks.

[phillis] 14/12/2017 17:37

NB
No which ground
The Waca?

Thought DM and JB played the last session fantastically well ( the only one I watched!)
About time JB batted six, I would swap Malan and Vince round, maybe put your mate at 5 and Vince at 6

We need 425+ at least

and I am hanging on here for £1.75

[callmebwana] 14/12/2017 17:25

Joined the party this AM @97P. Already in profit. Great stuff.
GLA.

[nicebut] 14/12/2017 16:31

Nice rise here!

O/T

Phillis,

Nice to see some fight down under at last- And some from my `new best mate`!! 100 too tomorrow hopefully

Did you see my ground on the telly last night? :)

[owenga] 14/12/2017 16:23

Lol. Advfn doesn't like party hat emojis!

[3rd eye] 14/12/2017 16:11

GFM Griffin Mining having a stormer. An island top created and further gains from here expected. RNS declaring it was debt free a few days ago and awaiting grant of license. A little corker and play on Electric Cars.😀ԅ26;

[ukgeorge] 14/12/2017 15:45

Booooooooom £1 has gone merry Christmas

[banj] 14/12/2017 15:00

Breaking out again ;)

[polaris] 14/12/2017 13:44

As long as Zn prices hold up then this is a compelling buy. Can't remember how many years ago it was since i last bought into GFM but i am back now and looking for a further rerating once the revenue/profit become clearer at the FY results. Until then it is not really mainstream. Looking at resource and possibilities to expand production then i would be happy with a P/E of around 8 on 2018E. Even those simple numbers could be blown out of the water by an approval for mining zone II. The mill is ready and nameplate now 1.5Mt p.a. so a lot of possible upside.

[up just a little bit] 14/12/2017 13:17

What would be a conservative PE ratio for Griffin generating pure cash?

[phillis] 14/12/2017 12:23

you get a good idea of the impact of the zinc price as far as profit and cash generation are concerned
bank debt stood at $35m after the repayment of c$11m in the first half
this opening amount has been paid down in 5 months!

[return_of_the_apeman] 14/12/2017 12:18

Expect the brokers will not get off their fat derrieres until after the results are announced in March, even though the figures can be calculated now as the reporting period is all but done