Greene King Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 23/3/2018 06:50

NYSE GNK chart looks well wrong now

RSI in the header could see 30 again in a market sell off due to USA drop/s coming

A USA correction looks imminent


buywell3 - 21 Nov 2017 - 17:07:19 - 1144 of 1287 Greene King - GNK
Sub 500p chartwise now on

Others in this sector are taking market share away

[philanderer] 21/3/2018 14:42

Anyhing retail is getting more or less tw@tted right across the board today.

We'll have to wait and see if the big money is calling this right.

[ianian4] 21/3/2018 14:27

Shorters are doing good business today and over the last couple of weeks. Would think they will be buying back at 450. Easy money if you have deep pockets and a bit of nerve.

[cc2014] 21/3/2018 14:21

Trying to get my head round this one. I bought MARS which is holding up much better but at 466 we are starting to look like it's silly season with GNK as well.

[philanderer] 21/3/2018 09:13

Seems the world and his dog is shorting any sort of retail now.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/3/2018 15:49

Note in the S.Times by Ian Cowie Business page 15.

[eggbaconandbubble] 18/3/2018 12:27

Bernie Madoff paid out a good divi too!

[philanderer] 18/3/2018 11:38

'Pubs facing triple tax whammy, says Camra'


The Campaign for Real Ale (Camra) is calling for a fundamental review of the tax system to stem the tide of pub closures.

It says pubs are being hit hard by a "triple whammy" of one of the highest rates of beer duty across Europe, rapidly rising business rates and VAT.

[philanderer] 17/3/2018 00:59

That would be a potential yield of 8.2% on an unchanged dividend !

[yf23_1] 16/3/2018 22:12

Possible next support just above 400.

[jotoha2] 16/3/2018 19:59

£3 price target still in place , fantastic .

[yf23_1] 16/3/2018 16:46

Obviously not priced in enough seeing as support level broken.

[philanderer] 16/3/2018 12:49

Note details..


“While the outlook for UK pubs and restaurants looks set to remain tough, we think Greene King’s like-for-like sales underperformance will start to narrow in 2019, and our new work on its debt securitisations suggest its dividend is secure.” With a dividend yield of nearly 7 per cent and a valuation of less than eight times earnings, “a lot of bad news is priced in”.

[philanderer] 16/3/2018 10:26

Morgan Stanley upgrading today to 'overweight'.... target 640p up from 610p

[jeffian] 14/3/2018 19:59

(Copied from the MARS thread)

"Smith & Williamson’s Mark Swain has warned pub groups may need to cut dividends and use the cash to compete against ‘nimble’ restaurant brands."

It's an interesting analysis but I would have said it's completely the other way around! Reading on down the article, it is clear that he is attacking branding/'sameness' and lauding individuality but that is exactly what pubs are so good at. OK, an element of MARS (and a bigger one of GNK) has gone down the 'branded' route, but the vast majority of their estates are individual pubs run by a tenant or manager attuned to his local market. The big new-build 'family' pubs seem to be working OK for MARS but, even if they don't, they are not an overwhelming part of the estate. Meanwhile, GNK say they are reacting to the 'casual dining' squeeze by putting a more pubby wet element into their eateries. It's very easy for pubs to adapt (and think how they have over the ages) but what can Byron or Pizza Express do if their model becomes less popular? "Nimble"? Hah! Quite the opposite. I'm coming up 67 now and have lived through plenty of recessions, every one of which has produced predictions of the demise of the British pub. Sure, plenty have closed, but the ones that adapt survive and thrive and I'm far more confident in pubs than "‘nimble’; restaurant brands."

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2018 19:54

Is the MAB interim dividend news an early warning of what may be to come?.

Agree GNK will be around in some form for many years,
however if you are looking mainly in terms of income, I
might think twice. May be wrong!.

[speedsgh] 14/3/2018 19:27

Swain calls time on pub sector and warns of divi cuts -

[jeffian] 14/3/2018 16:20

It's a perennial question on all the pubco threads. Try typing "debt" into the search box as it's been discussed at length before. You will see both sides of the story and at the end of the day it comes down to whether you are comfortable with debt/gearing or not.

As for GNK, it's been around for a few centuries and I'm not expecting it to disappear any time soon!

[eggbaconandbubble] 14/3/2018 12:23

In looking at these and Marstons, (because of the good divi yields) I noticed that both companies have very large debt.

Although both companies have been carrying this debt for several years I feel rather hesitant of dipping my toes in here.

Comment anyone!

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2018 08:29

Looked at RTN yesterday, but not brave enough to take the pre results trade.

[jeffian] 06/3/2018 17:02

I agree with you about Loch Fyne, whackford. I'm not sure it's ever been a great success or fitted happily into the GNK 'stable' of brands. Mid-market/'branded' eateries are caught in a squeeze between 'fine dining' and the rise of gastro pubs, so ironically it's the success of the pub wot's done for it. I know from personal experience that whereas in the olden days I would eat out in 'local' restaurants if I wanted a reasonably priced meal, I now almost always go to one of the several local pubs who serve good food. Loch Fyne probably falls between two stools with its 'oyster bar' image putting off cheaper eaters and yet the branded image not appealing to better-off diners.

On another point, I certainly agree with the concept of putting the 'pub' back in 'gastro pub'. I want a bar with a decent range of beers where they don't mind whether you're going for a pint and a sandwich or a 3 course meal, or even just having a beer at the bar. Nothing puts me off more than being 'seated' and served at table when all I want is a beer!

[whackford] 06/3/2018 16:04

If GNK want to sell Loch Fyne (see above) they have chosen a bad time to do it.

I was always sceptical of the acquisition at the time - too specialist for a pub operator in my view and too dependent on well-heeled customers.

I wonder what is driving the decision to sell - the need to drive down debt (?) or is Loch Fyne making an operating loss (?). The Telegraph today claims "about a third of all restaurant are running at a loss".

[philanderer] 06/3/2018 15:45

Repeat performace today , GNK the only red one in the portfolio.

Can't complain ;-)


edit: on an unchanged dividend, yield today is 6.7%

[ed 123] 06/3/2018 14:55

Fwiw, my gut feeling is that we've not seen the last of the US bond and equity market wobbles. Interest rates are to go up in the US. Will the Trump tax cuts make even higher rates necessary? Then after the Trump tax cuts have been digested, what is there to lift the US equity markets higher? It may take as long as the traditional month of October, but I would not be surprised to see a US equity market correction. Our equities would, of course, follow.

Calling the bottom? Just about impossible. No advice, but for me, if a price is attractive I go for it. Short term could easily be wrong but, if the analysis is right, hang on and the medium term will give the profit. (Yes, it's easier said than done - watching holdings lose value will test anyone's nerve.)