Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[marktime1231] 31/3/2022 11:47

Thank goodness wind speeds are picking up again after a very quiet 10 days.

I spotted in SSEs close-to-year-end report yesterday that it was recovering from a wind deficit of 19% as at Christmas to a 12% deficit by 22 March. So we can read across that UKWs Q1 2022 performance will have been superb (but for the last 10 days), wind speeds significantly above base plan and 5-7 x normal wholesale prices.

[marktime1231] 30/3/2022 12:07

Yes rustle, quite right. Unfortunately most of the last 25+ years of turbine blades installed in the UK are made of thermoset polymers bonded with fibres, or carbon fibre, etc. Designed to be super tough and difficult to separate back in to raw materials. So we have a generation (haha) of not-easily recycled materials to deal with, the best we do with them at present is chop them up and landfill them. Incineration or gasification might be an option.

I wonder who owns the actual cost and carbon liability of disposing of end-of-life turbines.

That big turbine blade makers are, only now, working out how to make more easily recyclable turbine blades in future is rather disappointing, considering this is supposed to be a green industry. Not a good story.

The good news is that the rest of the installation other than the turbines blades, and probably about 90% of the weight, is approaching fully recyclable.

[rustle2] 29/3/2022 20:55

Orsted commited last year to sustainable recycling of all turbine blades. You can search for more details.

[marktime1231] 29/3/2022 17:19

Landfill.

Well I am happy to be corrected that the UK does indeed seem to now be in favour of significantly expanding onshore wind, which has been at around 14GW for sometime and has only modest developments in the current pipeline.

According to the Grauniad, this from BEIS today ...

"The government is aiming to triple the number of solar panels, more than quadruple offshore wind power and double onshore wind and nuclear energy by 2030, in a move that could lower bills for consumers and reduce the UK’s reliance on foreign energy suppliers such as Russia.

Kwarteng put forward the targets as part of Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) plans for inclusion in the upcoming energy white paper.

The paper has faced delays because the cost of approving at least six nuclear power stations as part of an expansion of the UK’s renewable energy strategy has been debated at the Treasury. Ministers are also divided over plans to back onshore wind.

BEIS’s targets include increasing solar power from its current capacity of 14GW to 50GW, offshore wind from 11GW to 50GW, onshore wind from 15GW to 30GW, and nuclear power from 7GW to 16GW, according to the Financial Times.

Solar power and onshore wind generation have, to date, not had official government growth targets."

Hmmmn. Factchecking ... current utility and grid scale solar is only about 8-9GW, the rest is small scale rooftop solar which contributes little to the national picture. Finding places to triple up grid scale solar eg in the sunny areas of the UK will be difficult. Uncontested space to double onshore wind also a challenge, the current trick is to bribe the local community with discounted energy. The most preposterous element of this plan is to increase nuclear so sharply in such a short timeframe ... we will be down to under 4GW by 2025 and then to 1.2GW by 2029 before Hinkley Point C 3.2GW comes onstream in 2026, Sizewell C 3.2GW still on the drawing board so not before 2030, how is the extra 6-9GW going to be delivered?? Methinks these BEIS targets are for 2050, not 2030. And no use whatsoever in solving current over-reliance on gas which we cannot supply ourselves and cannot store in strategic quantity. The baseline net-zero plan was to phase out gas by 2035, which now looks too soon to be safe.

So. More onshore wind and solar by expanding and upgrading existing sites, coupled with battery and other forms of storage, are the most likely to make the most difference in the short term to ease the UK's energy crisis, but even unchallenged those developments still take years to implement. In the meantime we will be begging for LNG tanker supplies and paying a huge price. We remain hooked on gas and our lack of storage at least until 2035.

Nevertheless, if the revised BEIS strategy enables UKW to efficiently expand and upgrade its onshore wind farms while there is an expensive energy market that will be good for business. All we need now is near-term investment opportunities, a willing local community, funds, and developer / operator partners.

[tuftymatt] 29/3/2022 11:00

I got in on this one yesterday as I think the divi looks good and should grow in the coming years too. A few pence per year on the share price too would be lovely!!

[bothdavis] 28/3/2022 21:06

Don't they use them as ship propellers?

[growthpotential] 28/3/2022 17:28

What happens to old wind turbines when they come to the end of their natural life?

[marktime1231] 24/3/2022 18:27

Thanks igoe. Actually that story from PI is just suggesting ( without evidence ) that buffoon Boris may now be in favour of new onshore wind, which has stalled at around 14GW. At the moment finance, industry and operators are all flat out delivering an additional 30GW of massive offshore wind farms by 2030 on top of the 10GW we started the decade with. The amount of onshore wind in the pipeline is relatively small and I think UKW are already engaged or looking at what is underway.

Most local people are against large new onshore wind schemes because they are a blight on the landscape. Onshore wind turbines and farms tend to be smaller, enjoy lower average wind speed, therefore not so economically efficient over the long term. Maybe a few existing schemes will be allowed to extend. Maybe they come at a slightly lower initial investment cost and are quicker to install?

Let's see what the UK govt come up with in their revised plan in the coming weeks.

It could be good news if UKW is able to participate on good terms in extended developments of onshore schemes, which were hitherto refused but might now get permission. But I am not aware of any situation where UKW schemes or opportunities are blocked by a lack of approval, it usually invests in mature developments and where blades are already spinning.

[igoe104] 24/3/2022 18:02

Positive wrire-up.

[uncleoswald] 22/3/2022 10:23

Maybe historically it is.
But, net profits could double this year to £500m. P/e of 6. Should result in a rerating!!

[whilstev] 22/3/2022 10:20

Its a divi share never going to fly just slowly plod along.

[uncleoswald] 22/3/2022 08:35

Wholesale energy prices increasing.
Ukw shares down to 150p!!
Strange!!

[marktime1231] 10/3/2022 15:53

Powering along again today, winds blowing and the sun shining too. Wholesale gas prices tumbling back to 7 x normal, UKW winning still.

[petewy] 10/3/2022 13:55

So original Growth

[growthpotential] 10/3/2022 09:41

Someone needs to oust this Putin

[marktime1231] 02/3/2022 18:41

Wow closed at 153p. You can buy a litre of petrol for that, nearly.

Responding to the wholesale gas / energy markets soaring up to 8 x normal rates this afternoon, and after a quiet night winds have picked up again today. More to come?

[yump] 28/2/2022 18:11

Trend looks like its curving upwards quite steeply. 18 months in the same range which is fine for an income stock but perhaps now a bonus rise coming ?

[marktime1231] 28/2/2022 13:48

More than a touch. UK wind delivering at near full capacity for much of February at a time of record energy prices must be helping.

My divi landed Friday (ajb).

Greencoat Renewables reporting positively today, a read across perhaps? Not looked closely at GRP until now but will be doing so now they have achieved scale. I did spot GRP welcomed the management acquisition by Schroders, in contrast UKW response was a bit frosty.

[woodhawk] 28/2/2022 09:03

Nice to see this up a touch today, but haven't had my dividend paid by IG Index yet.

[marktime1231] 24/2/2022 14:33

Superb NAV performance, now up over 133p per share. 2021 Generation socked by -20% winds, which is an exceptional low. Good net cash flow easily covering dividends x1.9, and gearing just 23%. Finances in great shape. Current trading prices and high winds surely producing cash flow out-performance in Q1 22, no wonder management are confident to step up the quarterly dividend to 1.93p.

Having introduced significant new capacity late in 2021 the growth outlook from here is more measured:

+38MW Twentyshilling at £51M to come on line in Mar 22 which I think is delayed from original plan Q4 21.

+38MW share of Kype Muir Ext at £51M to come online Q4 22.

+240MW South Kyle at £320MW to come online Q1 23.

There may be other near-term deals in the pipeline for 2022 which have not yet been committed, they mention having 7 live opportunities still under review. So maybe 2022 will be a year of generation catch up. To keep up its c. 5% UK market share UKW needs to add another 580MW capacity by 2030, and 395MW is already in process within 15 months, funding arrangements in place.

Do we want to accelerate ... I think the board is careful to scrutinise risks and financial prospects, but could UKW be tempted in to a bold step up by taking an early stage stake in another very large development or two. In the narrative they identify benefits from participating in larger scale wind farms ... why not go for it?

[woodhawk] 24/2/2022 11:22

Indeed, Income Investor. This is one of a very few of my shares that are up today. Nice divi increase. Onwards & upwards!!

[income investor] 24/2/2022 10:14

Excellent annual results out today. Even with low wind speed, dividend cover 1.9 times and targeting increase in annual dividend to 7.72p in line with increase in December RPI. NAV increased over year from 122.2p to 133.5p. Some good news on a grim day

[igoe104] 22/2/2022 16:38

Positive wrire-up.

[marktime1231] 22/2/2022 13:17

I think we are expecting UKWs annual results this Thursday 24 Feb?

Fact checking my own facts. In the results to Dec 2020 UKW reported generation of 2,952GWh (3% below budget) and net cash generation of £145M (is that the same as operating income?). Gearing was 33% around £1.1B at an average 2.26%. Fees were £19.8M for the year.

Since then UKW has added operational capacity up from 1,173MW in Dec 2020, in early January 2022 UKW announced additions of 92MW taking the total capacity to 1,422MW. (Dec 2019 was 979MW).

At the half-year stage UKW reported 1,476GWh and net cash generation of £104M. Capacity over 1.2GW. Gearing at 28%.

Wind speeds may have been low again but operating capacity grew rapidly in H2, so about level then? Prices since October averaging 4-5 times higher so net cash (operating income) as much as £300M to look forward to. Or am I getting carried away?

[marktime1231] 18/2/2022 12:55

Very interesting annual report from TRIG, where the portfolio is dominated by offshore wind. Lots of words and not easy to follow the figures though.

It separates corporate debt from project level debt and so it is not easy to work out the funding or development-in-progess position, net debt etc. I think TRIG are geared up to 40-45% at what they say is mostly fixed 3.4% interest rate. Whereas UKW geared around 30% can't remember the rate. My conclusion is UKW are now significantly bigger, expanding faster, and managing the economics better.

In 2021 TRIG operating income more than doubled from £100M to £210M, despite generation only increasing 5% from 3925GWh to 4125GWh. That is the effect of the sub-base model wind conditions last year, now picking up (literally, my kitchen bin has just flown across the back garden for the second time this morning). The read across for UKW is superb since they have introduced many new operating assets and are in the same frothy market for wholesale electricty prices.

Strangely TRIG only reporting a 3.4% NAV improvement and a miserley 1.1% dividend increase, despite fees rising by a third to over £21Mpa. Priorities? A more conservative wholesale price outlook?

So. Very much happier to be invested in UKW where the dividend is to be increased by 7.5% and presents a forward yield roughly 6% compared to TRIGs 5.2% at today's share prices. I would hope UKW NAV has advanced better than 3.4% too, to justify the premium in the share price.

All very good.