Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[marktime1231] 07/4/2022 11:41

For wide-ranging read a scattergun of hollow promises.

We already have the offshore wind sector flat out delivering +30GW by 2030, so where is an extra extra +20GW coming from? 5GW from very expensive floating wind farms, and ... and what about grid connections, balancing services, storage, ...

As things stand we cannot nor conceivably could we deliver 8 new nuclear reactors by 2030. As the nice man on the telly said this morning, nuclear developments take 10 years to plan and 10 years to build. And cost £10B each per 1.6GW reactor. The only nuclear developer-operator we currently do business with EDF, a company controlled by a foreign country by the way, could not begin to cope with that sort of financial investment. And the UK govt seed funding each one by a few £M makes no odds. We are now promising what the Cameron govt promised ten years ago. Aaaaaaaaaaagh!

The cutting of onshore wind lead times by a year, yes good news for UKW perhaps, but so what does that mean in actual terms as far as we stand today?

How are extra developments in 10 years time going to solve our energy crisis over the next 2 years? Where is the storage / buffer solution?

What will solve our current energy crisis is the return of the northern hemisphere Summer, and increased supplies of natural gas to Europe. Nothing else.

[la forge] 07/4/2022 08:38

Philip Whiterow

08:06 Thu 07 Apr 2022


Nuclear, offshore wind and revitalised North Sea the bedrocks of PM's new energy plan

Up to 50Gw of new offshore turbine capacity is planned by 2030, which would be more than enough to power every home in the UK

North Sea


A new licensing round for the North Sea was also announced

Boris Johnson is backing a revival of the UK’s nuclear industry, offshore wind and the rejuvenation of North Sea oil and gas production to secure Britain’s energy future.

In a wide-ranging document, the PM said the new National Energy Strategy would reduce "dependence on power sources exposed to volatile international prices we cannot control".

A new nuclear power body, Great British Nuclear, will be set up immediately to look into new projects backed by state money, he said, while a £120mln Future Nuclear Enabling Fund will launch later this month.

Up to eight new reactors could be built through the plan, with Wylfa site in Anglesey highlighted, or one a year up to 2030.

A new licensing round for the North Sea was also announced, which will launch in Autumn and be overseen by a new task force that will provide 'bespoke support' for new exploration and projects.

Offshore wind and solar, however, are seemingly two of the most ambitious steps of the strategy.

Up to 50Gw new offshore turbine capacity is planned by 2030, which would be more than enough to power every home in the UK said the statement.

Some 5Gw of this will come from floating offshore wind in deeper seas.

The PM also looks to have won the row in the Cabinet over onshore wind farms, with approval times for new developments cut to one year as part of an overhaul of the whole planning process.

Communities are to be offered lower energy bills as an incentive to host new wind farms.

Solar, too, is set for a major capacity increase with a target to increase the UK’s current 14GW up to 5 times by 2035 including its use on household and industrial and commercial rooftops.

As a nod to energy efficiency, domestic use of heat pumps will also be encouraged through a £30mln competition to develop a new efficient unit that uses less gas.

Green hydrogen production targets were also be doubled from the current 10Gw by 2030, with at least half coming from green hydrogen and utilising excess offshore wind power to bring down costs

Johnson said they were: "Bold plans to scale up and accelerate affordable, clean and secure energy made in Britain– from new nuclear to offshore wind – in the decade ahead.”

“This will be central to weaning Britain off expensive fossil fuels, which are subject to volatile gas prices set by international markets we are unable to control, and boosting our diverse sources of homegrown energy for greater energy security in the long-term.”

[growthpotential] 31/3/2022 16:14

Okay great, thanks!

[growthpotential] 31/3/2022 16:12

Going to landfill seems at odds with ESG no? I hold UKW, but I do have a few issues with the landfill issue...

[marktime1231] 31/3/2022 12:47

Thank goodness wind speeds are picking up again after a very quiet 10 days.

I spotted in SSEs close-to-year-end report yesterday that it was recovering from a wind deficit of 19% as at Christmas to a 12% deficit by 22 March. So we can read across that UKWs Q1 2022 performance will have been superb (but for the last 10 days), wind speeds significantly above base plan and 5-7 x normal wholesale prices.

[marktime1231] 30/3/2022 13:07

Yes rustle, quite right. Unfortunately most of the last 25+ years of turbine blades installed in the UK are made of thermoset polymers bonded with fibres, or carbon fibre, etc. Designed to be super tough and difficult to separate back in to raw materials. So we have a generation (haha) of not-easily recycled materials to deal with, the best we do with them at present is chop them up and landfill them. Incineration or gasification might be an option.

I wonder who owns the actual cost and carbon liability of disposing of end-of-life turbines.

That big turbine blade makers are, only now, working out how to make more easily recyclable turbine blades in future is rather disappointing, considering this is supposed to be a green industry. Not a good story.

The good news is that the rest of the installation other than the turbines blades, and probably about 90% of the weight, is approaching fully recyclable.

[rustle2] 29/3/2022 21:55

Orsted commited last year to sustainable recycling of all turbine blades. You can search for more details.

[marktime1231] 29/3/2022 18:19

Landfill.

Well I am happy to be corrected that the UK does indeed seem to now be in favour of significantly expanding onshore wind, which has been at around 14GW for sometime and has only modest developments in the current pipeline.

According to the Grauniad, this from BEIS today ...

"The government is aiming to triple the number of solar panels, more than quadruple offshore wind power and double onshore wind and nuclear energy by 2030, in a move that could lower bills for consumers and reduce the UK’s reliance on foreign energy suppliers such as Russia.

Kwarteng put forward the targets as part of Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) plans for inclusion in the upcoming energy white paper.

The paper has faced delays because the cost of approving at least six nuclear power stations as part of an expansion of the UK’s renewable energy strategy has been debated at the Treasury. Ministers are also divided over plans to back onshore wind.

BEIS’s targets include increasing solar power from its current capacity of 14GW to 50GW, offshore wind from 11GW to 50GW, onshore wind from 15GW to 30GW, and nuclear power from 7GW to 16GW, according to the Financial Times.

Solar power and onshore wind generation have, to date, not had official government growth targets."

Hmmmn. Factchecking ... current utility and grid scale solar is only about 8-9GW, the rest is small scale rooftop solar which contributes little to the national picture. Finding places to triple up grid scale solar eg in the sunny areas of the UK will be difficult. Uncontested space to double onshore wind also a challenge, the current trick is to bribe the local community with discounted energy. The most preposterous element of this plan is to increase nuclear so sharply in such a short timeframe ... we will be down to under 4GW by 2025 and then to 1.2GW by 2029 before Hinkley Point C 3.2GW comes onstream in 2026, Sizewell C 3.2GW still on the drawing board so not before 2030, how is the extra 6-9GW going to be delivered?? Methinks these BEIS targets are for 2050, not 2030. And no use whatsoever in solving current over-reliance on gas which we cannot supply ourselves and cannot store in strategic quantity. The baseline net-zero plan was to phase out gas by 2035, which now looks too soon to be safe.

So. More onshore wind and solar by expanding and upgrading existing sites, coupled with battery and other forms of storage, are the most likely to make the most difference in the short term to ease the UK's energy crisis, but even unchallenged those developments still take years to implement. In the meantime we will be begging for LNG tanker supplies and paying a huge price. We remain hooked on gas and our lack of storage at least until 2035.

Nevertheless, if the revised BEIS strategy enables UKW to efficiently expand and upgrade its onshore wind farms while there is an expensive energy market that will be good for business. All we need now is near-term investment opportunities, a willing local community, funds, and developer / operator partners.

[tuftymatt] 29/3/2022 12:00

I got in on this one yesterday as I think the divi looks good and should grow in the coming years too. A few pence per year on the share price too would be lovely!!

[bothdavis] 28/3/2022 22:06

Don't they use them as ship propellers?

[growthpotential] 28/3/2022 18:28

What happens to old wind turbines when they come to the end of their natural life?

[marktime1231] 24/3/2022 18:27

Thanks igoe. Actually that story from PI is just suggesting ( without evidence ) that buffoon Boris may now be in favour of new onshore wind, which has stalled at around 14GW. At the moment finance, industry and operators are all flat out delivering an additional 30GW of massive offshore wind farms by 2030 on top of the 10GW we started the decade with. The amount of onshore wind in the pipeline is relatively small and I think UKW are already engaged or looking at what is underway.

Most local people are against large new onshore wind schemes because they are a blight on the landscape. Onshore wind turbines and farms tend to be smaller, enjoy lower average wind speed, therefore not so economically efficient over the long term. Maybe a few existing schemes will be allowed to extend. Maybe they come at a slightly lower initial investment cost and are quicker to install?

Let's see what the UK govt come up with in their revised plan in the coming weeks.

It could be good news if UKW is able to participate on good terms in extended developments of onshore schemes, which were hitherto refused but might now get permission. But I am not aware of any situation where UKW schemes or opportunities are blocked by a lack of approval, it usually invests in mature developments and where blades are already spinning.

[igoe104] 24/3/2022 18:02

Positive wrire-up.

[uncleoswald] 22/3/2022 10:23

Maybe historically it is.
But, net profits could double this year to £500m. P/e of 6. Should result in a rerating!!

[whilstev] 22/3/2022 10:20

Its a divi share never going to fly just slowly plod along.

[uncleoswald] 22/3/2022 08:35

Wholesale energy prices increasing.
Ukw shares down to 150p!!
Strange!!

[marktime1231] 10/3/2022 15:53

Powering along again today, winds blowing and the sun shining too. Wholesale gas prices tumbling back to 7 x normal, UKW winning still.

[petewy] 10/3/2022 13:55

So original Growth

[growthpotential] 10/3/2022 09:41

Someone needs to oust this Putin

[marktime1231] 02/3/2022 18:41

Wow closed at 153p. You can buy a litre of petrol for that, nearly.

Responding to the wholesale gas / energy markets soaring up to 8 x normal rates this afternoon, and after a quiet night winds have picked up again today. More to come?

[yump] 28/2/2022 18:11

Trend looks like its curving upwards quite steeply. 18 months in the same range which is fine for an income stock but perhaps now a bonus rise coming ?

[marktime1231] 28/2/2022 13:48

More than a touch. UK wind delivering at near full capacity for much of February at a time of record energy prices must be helping.

My divi landed Friday (ajb).

Greencoat Renewables reporting positively today, a read across perhaps? Not looked closely at GRP until now but will be doing so now they have achieved scale. I did spot GRP welcomed the management acquisition by Schroders, in contrast UKW response was a bit frosty.

[woodhawk] 28/2/2022 09:03

Nice to see this up a touch today, but haven't had my dividend paid by IG Index yet.

[marktime1231] 24/2/2022 14:33

Superb NAV performance, now up over 133p per share. 2021 Generation socked by -20% winds, which is an exceptional low. Good net cash flow easily covering dividends x1.9, and gearing just 23%. Finances in great shape. Current trading prices and high winds surely producing cash flow out-performance in Q1 22, no wonder management are confident to step up the quarterly dividend to 1.93p.

Having introduced significant new capacity late in 2021 the growth outlook from here is more measured:

+38MW Twentyshilling at £51M to come on line in Mar 22 which I think is delayed from original plan Q4 21.

+38MW share of Kype Muir Ext at £51M to come online Q4 22.

+240MW South Kyle at £320MW to come online Q1 23.

There may be other near-term deals in the pipeline for 2022 which have not yet been committed, they mention having 7 live opportunities still under review. So maybe 2022 will be a year of generation catch up. To keep up its c. 5% UK market share UKW needs to add another 580MW capacity by 2030, and 395MW is already in process within 15 months, funding arrangements in place.

Do we want to accelerate ... I think the board is careful to scrutinise risks and financial prospects, but could UKW be tempted in to a bold step up by taking an early stage stake in another very large development or two. In the narrative they identify benefits from participating in larger scale wind farms ... why not go for it?

[woodhawk] 24/2/2022 11:22

Indeed, Income Investor. This is one of a very few of my shares that are up today. Nice divi increase. Onwards & upwards!!