Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[jimmywilson612] 19/10/2021 17:08

Some great insight Rustle - cheers.

I've followed UK_WindEnergy which gives me hourly updates on the wind generating activities. Seen it was terrible low for a few months but back to normal levels now, so must be making lots of excess cash because wholesale electricity is nowhere near back to normal!!

[rustle2] 19/10/2021 16:15

They also said they only needed a power price of about £10/Mwh plus the guaranteed ROCs to cover dividends so expected dividend cover to be close to 2x at year end. Any excess cash would go to paying down debt ( or of course acquisitions) so impact NAV rather than paying out.

[yump] 19/10/2021 15:27

Sawtooth a bit higher up would be ok ;-)

[marktime1231] 19/10/2021 14:45

Agreed, entirely forseeable NAV progression which may include booking gains on assets / trading but mostly from surplus cash. So what on earth caused the recent slide to 130p, or caused the previous one or the one before that? UKW should be enjoying steady slow progress subject only to gearing events or fundraising issues of new stock, enough with the mysterious saw-tooth volatility please and thank you.

[rustle2] 19/10/2021 14:44

On the conference call they said that the benefit from the current power prices (applies to around half of their portfolio) had outweighed the lack of wind in the recent quarters. NAV currently doesn't assume high power prices continue for significant period and assumes average wind for next quarter. i.e. cautious NAV.

[woodhawk] 19/10/2021 11:43

RBC RAISES GREENCOAT UK WIND PRICE TARGET TO 150 (145) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

[jimmywilson612] 19/10/2021 10:29

Must be because the excess cash they are generating with higher wholesale energy costs - Can't imagine they've revalued the assets in the portfolio? Could be wrong

[whilstev] 19/10/2021 09:59

Nice increase in NAV announced at 129p which is up more than 6p in six months.

[marktime1231] 06/10/2021 10:26

The UKW share price continues to ignore the double plus good news of the wind blowing strongly around Britain again while day-ahead energy prices are averaging £150 / MWh and rising, twice the budgetted level. The difference this is going to make to the financial outturn is huge, no wonder management have been adding expensive looking capacity. The crisis being caused by natural gas demand outstripping supply, a squeeze from Russia, disrupted import from France nuclear surplus where they are having a strike anyway ... bad news for some, good news for others. Energy storage and balancing must also be having a field day.

[golden_eagle] 30/9/2021 22:49

Looking good value now at close to NAV and 5.5% yield. Topped up at just below 130p today.

[bothdavis] 30/9/2021 20:16

I thought this would be a consistent dividend payer, and slow but sure shareprice riser!!

[marktime1231] 30/9/2021 20:01

Still don't see why the share price has sunk so sharply back from its recent peak. UKW in my income portfolio as a steady earner.

NAV increasing, the wind blowing strongly again, energy prices still high, and news today the operating capacity is growing. The share price should not be this volatile and right now should be rising.

[rustle2] 28/9/2021 15:30

Gearing up to 30% of Gross Asset Value. Fund cap is 40%.
(Had to look it up as thought it might be 30%)

[marktime1231] 28/9/2021 14:43

Wow, maybe that explains it, the cost of expanding its portfolio is certainly going up. £121M for the operational 35MW Andershaw onshore wind farm sounds jolly expensive. Hopefully it signals a re-valuation of UKWs other assets?

At least the wind is blowing again.

If we are due another round of fund-raising hopefully they will do it when the share price next peaks, stimulated perhaps by excellent results and NAV uprating.

[igoe104] 28/9/2021 14:43

Cant see them taxing wind farm companies, how will government meet there targets, if they are peenislising these green companies. It will only discourage companies building more farms. Total noise.... that tax the government is taking about is for gas companies profiteering from high gas prices...

[hohum1] 28/9/2021 14:23

The “windfall tax” comments from the Government won’t have helped sentiment

[marktime1231] 23/9/2021 12:33

I wonder what can have caused the recent spike and fall in UKW share price.

Appreciation that steadily increasing its portfolio generation assets will be driving income, baseload energy prices up x2 from this time last year, more than offsetting light winds. But the cost of acquiring new assets must be going up, and the money for the next round of expansion might have to come from another big share issue because gearing is already at the top end of its intended long-term 20-30% range.

Thank goodness the wind has started to blow again, a breezy winter will be good news just as the newest wind farms come on line, and take some heat out the wholesale market.

[marktime1231] 16/9/2021 11:48

And / or the twerps maintaining the IFA link have managed to burn down the Sellindge transformer station. In other circumstances we would be accusing someone of sabotage.

[marktime1231] 15/9/2021 11:04

Charging up presumably on higher wholesale energy prices. Or the prospect of higher inflation means this is a better place to invest than elsewhere. Either way, heading for a big fund raise?

[marktime1231] 30/7/2021 21:06

And a high volume Uncrossing Trade to finish today, at a penny higher than the level it was trading at most of the day. I don't know what that spike means, but it feels like investors are beginning to see deeper value in UKW than is showing up in the NAV or in the rather conservative forecasts for full year performance. If the premium to NAV keeps widening surely the board will take advantage and go for another fund raising issue, I suspect a prospectus for £250M would be over-subscribed and be immediately beneficial in terms of reducing the top layer of debt or new asset opportunities.

[marktime1231] 29/7/2021 19:21

Impressive report from UKW.

A strong advance in wholesale energy prices more than makes up for a lack of wind in the last 6 months. April was unusually cold but calm. Yield now covered 1.5x. Normal average wind speeds would add 20% output, wholesale prices expected to be 35% higher in H2, a 10% growth in generating assets in the pipeline and already funded. Debt significant but in control. NAV progressing modestly. The outlook forecast for FY21 that yield will be covered 1.7x looks extremely conservative.

All good. No wonder the share price is enjoying a 5% or so premium, if it gets much stronger that would make the case for another substantial issue to improve the balance sheet or/and to fund an expansion. The report makes it clear new assets would only be acquired after strict tests of financial merit, but to keep up with the rapid expansion in UK offshore wind generation UKW needs to add about 50% to its 1.2GW capacity by 2030.

H2 and the full year likely to be characterised by strong cash flows, so proceeds for debt reduction or future investment or dividend progress. Or all three.

Actually the dividend payment will have to step up to keep up with NAV progressing at around a 5% annual rate. All very good.

[bothdavis] 09/7/2021 20:16

Maybe.....just maybe its going to grow the shareprice....whoooohoooo!!

[pandy999] 22/6/2021 16:25

Cocopah I've not done well on aim so other than the odd one I stay away. It's bent holding alot of bottom draw and if I pop my clogs my kids will think I drink to much . As Rothchild wotever said buy when there's blood on the streets