Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[whilstev] 15/4/2021 10:27

I hold for the good/rising with inflation dividend. Nearing retirement so a decent dividend income with relatively secure share price is important to me. Would prefer the price to be higher but seems out of favour at the moment.

[growthpotential] 11/4/2021 18:04

What is the long term investment thesis for this stock?

[whilstev] 22/3/2021 12:31

Two director buys giving a boost to share price.

[stewart64] 15/3/2021 18:39

Any unexpected change in nav will, of course, cause an immediate price movement one way or another so it would be hard to benefit. I'm happy to gamble on the 31st December nav, which isn't ancient history.

It looks cheap compared to other FTSE 250 renewable ITs. Trig, which I hold, has an 8% premium. GCP Infrastructure which is mainly a lender to Renewables ( only 9% Direct Equity) has clawed back to nav. The difference here is that the assets look fairly transparent and ( I would have thought) easy to value. With GCP I can't work out whether the " loans" are plain vanilla fixed or some more complex vehicle since the valuer took an axe to nav over perceived weak electricity price prospects. Now we are flirting with a zero nav premium here for a direct Equity model, I have to say this looks like the pick of the sector just now.

Could be wrong and once these ITs get stuck in the doldrums they stay stuck for a few weeks usually.

[rustle2] 10/3/2021 17:58

Personally I'm awaiting an updated NAV at the next update.

[stewart64] 10/3/2021 15:08

I too think the electricity price thing is a bit overdone. I'm actually surprised, too, that a 2.5% nav premium hasn't proved more tempting to the Market when we are used to something closer to 15%.
And although some websites calculate nav on a very primitive actual nav minus dividend paid out basis( assuming no earnings in the meantime) to arrive at a pessimistic " estimated" nav; Greencoat, of course, has raised 200 million shares at an 8p premium to nav, which alone raises 16 million quid and that would have paid for half the last quarterly dividend of 30 million quid.

[aspringo] 09/3/2021 10:06

Agree with you 2naive, don't believe a word of it.Whose had a quote from their electricity company on next year's tariff and it said excellent news your bill is going down.

[2naive] 09/3/2021 08:33

Interesting that electricity prices are expect to fall. I'd have thought that with the massive move from petrol/diesel to electric vehicles imminent, and possibly a mass move from carbon to electric heating (heat pumps), we'd see an increased demand for electric.

[stewart64] 08/3/2021 19:28

Rich288..I was referring back to my post of February in which I pointed out that Trig was richly priced compared to Greencoat nav-wise, which was surprising as they hadn't triggered their sub ipo. And it turned out to be a valid observation after Trig shares fell.
A big fall in one IT in the sector is always likely to have some impact on sentiment. Probably only very fleetingly. And it was only a suggestion, in the absence of any other news ( the corp tax by then was probably priced in), as to why Greencoat had fallen back on that particular day only.

But as the above post points out we are battling lower electricity price expectations too for the longer term trend. Though nav. premiums have already been trimmed back to almost zero in some cases...as here.

[nerja] 08/3/2021 19:18

Irememeber posting this
Update) Investors in London’s expensive listed renewable energy funds are at a risk of a 43% share price fall and a 33% drop in asset values due to the slide in long-term power forecasts, JPMorgan Cazenove has warned.

Strong investor demand for their reliable dividends and environmentally friendliness has pushed shares in London’s six wind and solar power investment companies to an average 16% premium above their underlying net asset values (NAV).

But UK investment companies analyst Christopher Brown said the double-digit premiums of companies in the £9bn renewables sector were unsustainable in face of mounting evidence that growth in carbon-free energy would slash the cost of electricity in the next 20-30 years.

While that's good news for consumers and the planet, it is bad news for funds generating most of their revenues from selling electricity into the wholesale market, said Brown and fellow analyst Adam Kelly.

Using the latest figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, an independent forecaster owned by financial media giant Bloomberg, the analysts believed the NAVs of Bluefield Solar Income (BSIF), Foresight Solar (FSFL), Greencoat UK Wind (UKW), JLEN Environmental Assets (JLEN), NextEnergy Solar (NESF) and Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) could drop by a third on average.
At the time I got slated , sadly didn’t take my own research

[rich288] 08/3/2021 18:00

Stewart64, Im probably missing something but I don’t see what this share has to do with trig? I thought the price would drop when they issued the extra shares! However I’m stumped as too why it has dropped today and from my novice investigation looks like a good stock?

[rustle2] 05/3/2021 12:38

Worth a read - doesn't read well for UKW.

hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/budget-2021-infrastructure-and-renewables-funds-hit-by-corporation-tax-hike/a1475130

[gateside] 05/3/2021 10:06

Good to see though that TRIG are allowing Private Investors to take part

[stewart64] 05/3/2021 09:57

I warned on here that Trig share sub ipo was coming ( see 25th February)and the premium was out of line with Greencoat. They've pulled the ipo trigger at 123p and the price has collapsed. I expected 126p, this has come as a shock to the Market..it may well track back to 123p now.

Greencoat possibly hit by the news of ever falling sub ipos prices.

[jong] 01/3/2021 16:28

Yep, mines just come in now around lunchtime :-)

[bothdavis] 01/3/2021 14:18

Just checked mine....its in!!

[bothdavis] 01/3/2021 14:15

Also with Halifax...always seems to b a delay wit payment of Greencoat divis, don't know why?!

[jong] 01/3/2021 12:45

That should have dividend included !

[jong] 01/3/2021 12:41

Is anyone with a nominee account still waiting for last weeks (26th Feb) to be paid ? I'm with Halifax Sharedealing and still no sign of it yet :-(

[stewart64] 28/2/2021 13:59

Bothdavis...FTSE 100 total return from December 2019 is minus 11%..it's about par for UK Equity since you invested. (6222/6980)

[stewart64] 27/2/2021 15:46

I'd expect Greencoat is close to the bottom of its natural range with nav at 120.4 ( and unlikely to have dropped since 31st December with new capital being raised at a 10.6p premium to that).

GCP infrastructure ( mentioned above) is even more interesting having drifted below nav.

[panshanger1] 27/2/2021 10:35

Cost of debt with inflationary risks affecting a lot of the energy and infra trusts Also watching NESF and GCP aswell

[bothdavis] 26/2/2021 23:10

Hmmmmmm!

Down 9.26% since investing...that's with dividends reinvested.

Not as safe and reliable as I'd hoped.

[igoe104] 26/2/2021 20:02

Decent interview with the CEO -

[93marquez] 26/2/2021 15:04

Make that 127.2Now got a dodgy keyboard