Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 01/12/2017 12:17

It’s very unlikely that recent share price rise is the market pricing in the likely starting price of the subscription shares. Subscription shares and warrants are rarely issued now but used to be commonplace for Investment Trusts. Announcement of a new warrant issue rarely saw the share price move up for an existing Trust. Also the mechanics of how to price subscription shares (eg CFP) is often little understood by market professionals let alone amateurs. Indeed because they are so little understood glaring pricing mistakes are common for the very few left.

E.g currently UEMS (Utilico Emerging Markets sub shares) are at far too low a price and have been for months. Exercise price is 183p ( but final expiry date very close at end of Feb) and UEM is 217p to sell. So UEMS is worth 34p but can be bought for 30p. So not only is there nothing extra to pay for the remaining time value, but UEMS is at
a 4p discount. So if confident UEM share price can rise, and currently it is at bottom of recent trading range, then UEMS is a strong buy. And there is a trustee to exercise lapsed sub shares for those who don’t want to or can’t afford to exercise.

e.g If UEM can rise 10% to 240p then UEMS worth 57p compared with 30p buy price today.

Back to GCL sub shares;there is a negative effect on NAV but only if/when the sub shares are exercised. But the big plus is that the Trust gets £millions of new money to invest when all the subs are exercised. And I’ve checked with the Trust and though no provision for a trustee to exercise lapsed sub shares is in the listing document there will be one if the subs finish in the money.

And yes; if the shares do well the sub shares will do far better. The last GCL sub shares could be bought for less than 1p just before the last big uranium rally and the sub price went up 60 fold in a few months while the share only doubled.

So great fun could be had with both GCL and GPM.

[dogberry202000] 01/12/2017 00:12

End of the month shenanigans in the uranium price is causing volatility. The strongest seasonal period is still before us.

[matt123d] 30/11/2017 21:14

337k at 26p and 362k at 25.95p

[dogberry202000] 30/11/2017 16:32

QP I agree. Possibly the biggest drivers of the GCL share price at the moment are the subscription shares and the prospects of a price recovery, gradual or otherwise, in Uranium.

I have no answer to this but I've sometimes wondered whether closed end funds like GCL, particularly at key turning points in their markets, just passively react to price changes in their holdings or anticipate them. Recently, with the announcement of the subscription shares it seems to have been the latter. Could GCL be a leading indicator? There must be a decent sized investor base here always doing their research and/or in possession of key information. I suppose, time will tell. Still, the range of holdings are attractive, compared with say URA which is heavily weighted with the leader of the sector, Cameco Corp, and you get a good mix of companies with decent prospects that could rise by over 100 fold in a bull market.

[quepassa] 30/11/2017 15:33

If the price of U3o8 sky-rockets as many,including me, think it eventually will, these GCL warrants (with the subscription price based on GCL's NAV as at 13/12/17) may prove to be extremely valuable warrants in their own right in the fullness of time.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 30/11/2017 15:28

NAV today is 21.39p.

Mid price is 24.5p.

Yes that is a premium of 3.11p per share.

However, I would suggest that this is the market pricing in a value to the proposed free warrants/subscription shares. This 3.11p may be an early pricing or "the monetary value" of the free subscription shares.


The Company spelled out the benefits of the Subscription shares as follows and maybe this is already bearing fruit:

-- Subscription Shares should represent an attractive way for investors to
participate in any future NAV growth of the Company through conversion
into Ordinary Shares at a predetermined price;

-- Qualifying Shareholders will receive securities:


-- with a monetary value;

-- which may be traded in a similar fashion to their existing Ordinary
Shares or, in due course, converted into Ordinary Shares; and

-- which are qualifying investments for the purposes of an ISA and permitted
investments for the purposes of a SIPP;


-- on any exercise of the Subscription Share Rights, the capital base of the
Company will increase, allowing operating costs to be spread across a
larger number of Ordinary Shares, and this may cause the ongoing charges
as a percentage of the NAV per Ordinary Share to fall;

-- following the exercise of any Subscription Share Rights, the Company will
have an increased number of Ordinary Shares in issue which may improve
the liquidity in the market for the Ordinary Shares; and

-- the Bonus Issue may broaden the Ordinary Shareholder base as the
Subscription Shares are dispersed in the market, attracting new investors
and improving liquidity for Ordinary Shareholders.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dogberry202000] 30/11/2017 14:40

GCL is at a premium here but the buyers want it so badly they don't care. There's been big buys going through over the last few days. It doesn't get more bullish than that.

[bigtbigt] 28/11/2017 22:51

Thanks for clarifications kenmitch

[kaos3] 28/11/2017 13:29

bought more as I expect the price Will bounce from the MA support

[kenmitch] 27/11/2017 19:23

They are the same except for a technicality. Call them subscription shares and they can go in to ISAs but call them warrants and they can’t!

Whether to buy more or wait depends on the starting price.

I haven’t worked out any prices yes, but just to give you a guide to potential upside: the last subscription shares had an exercise price of 75p. A few months ahead of expiry date when the share was in low 60s the subs could be bought for under 1p. The share soared to about 140p ahead of expiry date sending the sub price to around 65p.

But uranium and so GCL performance has disappointed for years and if that continues for 3 more years this new issue will be a damp squib.

[brugen] 27/11/2017 18:41

kenmitch,

Thanks for the info. Your experience has obviously made you a fan which is good to hear. I assume warrant and subscription share are just two different names for the same thing.

When we get the first market price for the SS I might dust off my Excel and do a bit of variance modelling.

If anything can bring the Golden Prospect closer I'll be a happy man!

Thanks again.

brugen

[kenmitch] 27/11/2017 17:51

Brugen.

Yes you are missing something.

IF the share does well the sub shares will do FAR better.

E.g the last GCL sub shares went up 60 Times at one point. Over the same period the share price went up about 8 times.

Also shareholders are getting them for free. They can always buy more if/whenever they are good value.

And if the sub shares finish in the money the Trust gets £millions of new money to invest.

Yes, there are negatives too, including negative effect on NAV but in the past warrant after warrant and sub share after sub share went up miles faster than the share. They are now a rarity, partly because since the change in how financial advisers are paid Investment Trusts have wanted to keep things as simple as possible because they want to attract more investors.

So I’ very pleased with the sub share news and hope Golden Prospect will follow suit.

[brugen] 27/11/2017 09:30

Having read the Subscription Shares RNS I am struggling to see what there is for me as an owner in this.

If no Subscription Shares were issued I would gain all of any NAV uplift anyway.

If SS are issued I have to put more money in. Any uplift between now and any of the three buying dates will be paid for by existing shareholders in a dilution of the NAV.

Management will of course get more shares to charge more management fees on.

Am I missing something or have GCL found a free lunch for me?

[steve73] 27/11/2017 07:17

Update RNS on the Subscription Shares...

[novicetrade68] 23/11/2017 19:10

Delayed trade 500k @24p.

[x54v] 23/11/2017 12:39

Pushing up strongly again.

[dogberry202000] 22/11/2017 19:49

QP I, too, have concerns over the fee being too high. The doldrums for U lasted most of the year and longer than many expected. Underperformance was possible within this context.Most of the same team also manage GPM who sometimes outperformed their indexes.

I think the Board would have acted on the subs. shares if the downturn hadn't lasted so long. They may want to issue them at a higher level but they need to clarify by restating their position on this.

NXE, the biggest holding, is up around 8.5% tonight as I type. The holdings are good. We may be in a better position to judge performance by the end of Winter.

[someuwin] 22/11/2017 15:10

Looks good to me.

[x54v] 22/11/2017 15:03

If the momentum keeps up in the uranium stocks then another quick run up to 30p+ looks to be on the cards.

[x54v] 22/11/2017 14:56

NAV now up to 23.05p.

Strong start for US and Canadian uranium stocks.

[shavian] 22/11/2017 06:41

Canadians strong overnight again, should be good for us here this morning when we open.Like Cody.com I've happy with a bit of sector exposure via GCL during the recent lull in U prices, but may now add a few individual stock starting with FCU.

[x54v] 21/11/2017 16:20

There have been a few false dawns so maybe people are still reluctant to buy. They will end up chasing in due course.

Some decent moves just now in the US & Canadian uranium stocks but GCL down a little on the day.

[steve73] 21/11/2017 16:05

When yellowcake was in the $25-30 box earlier this year, the share price of GCl was well over the 25p mark, and peaked at almost 35p intraday.... I remember as I was too slow pushing the "confirm" to sell button then.

[x54v] 21/11/2017 15:42

"#U3O8 Spot Price moving higher again today so far, US$25.82 and headed for US$26/lb.🚀That's an over 29% increase in less than 2 weeks. #uranium $URA $GCL"