Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[steve73] 05/12/2017 15:40

I've never managed to buy this at anything better than the typically wide quoted spread..

U3O8 front month now over $26, with the longer years up even more than $31.

[wskill] 05/12/2017 15:17

NAV now 23.66p excellent let's see what next year brings have had a limit order in all day at 26p and it's still not filled.

[quepassa] 04/12/2017 17:41

When the market assimilates fully what is going on with Cameco cutting production at Cigar Lake and now additionally Kazakh cutting production by 20%, U3o8 is going to surge. And this will feed through rapidly to the whole sector.

This has the potential to make this year's ballistic price rise in BITCOIN look like the poor cousin.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dogberry202000] 04/12/2017 16:59

Info. via John Quakes on Twitter:

Spot #uranium 2600/2700 USc/Lb U3O8 (+350c,+14.6%) (from Numerco)

and,

[dogberry202000] 04/12/2017 16:33

You are right, truthteller3 - as you are on the register the subscription shares will be alloted to you. I don't deal through Barclays but the share trading services usually attend to this on your behalf and let you know when the these sub. shares have arrived in your account. Maybe someone who deals through Barclays can let you know if it is any different on this thread.

[truthteller3] 04/12/2017 16:15

I feel confident enough to ask what may be a silly question. My reading of the announcements tells me that I need do nothing to receive these bonus shares. Am I right in my assumption?

(I have asked those idiots at Barclays Stockbrokers but they have so far refused to give me an answer.)

[kenmitch] 04/12/2017 15:17

Yes, flying start for uranium shares today with Nexgen up 12%. Cameco is up 16%!

Hope this continues, to allow NAV to catch up with share price EXCEPT that the higher the NAV on Dec 13th the higher the exercise prices. The lower the exercise prices the better, and ditto for Golden Prospect.

e.g at current NAV, exercise prices will be around 25-26p for 2018 expiry, 26-28p for 2019 and 29-30p for 2020.

Target modest 50p share price in time (if only modest uranium rally)and sub would be worth 20p for 2020 exercise price. If it starts around 3p then 6 or 7 bagger.

But if NAV soars this week then much higher exercise prices would reduce that gain for a 50p share price a lot.

[dogberry202000] 04/12/2017 14:49

There's some knowledgeable posters here vis a vis the debate above.

The uraniums are raging higher over the water. One source, Michael Bigger of Biggercapital, says the Kazahks are ready to take another 20% out of production by the end of the month! With the 10% they already removed earlier and Cameco's reduction there would well be around 40% or so curtailment in uranium by next year. Don't forget Honeywell also stopped processing U308 at its key plant.

[kpo115] 04/12/2017 13:47

At last a decent and instructive debate on ADVFN! It's so pleasant that the noisy narcissists have disappeared back into the woodwork or down under.

[kenmitch] 04/12/2017 12:51

This time I agree re more upside potential for uranium than gold/silver. Assuming another uranium bull market before final sub share expiry date, then GCLS are going to prove a huge winner again at some point. BUT against that we've been waiting many years now for the next bull run and again there are delays in Japan. So we might have to be patient.

[quepassa] 04/12/2017 12:36

Well if GCL warrants start trading at 1.25 p, I'll likely look to buy 10 million.

Difference between GCL and GPM warrants?

Basic.

1. Investor appetite for uranium vs gold/silver.
2. Forecast price increases for U3o8 v/s forecasts for gold/silver

A warrant on uranium has SIGNIFICANTLY more UPSIDE POTENTIAL than gold/silver.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[kenmitch] 04/12/2017 12:14

Que Passa

The current extraordinary premium to NAV might or might not be because of the free sub share issue. BUT then how do you explain away the fact that the same is not happening with Golden Prospect new issue subscription shares? GPM NAV is 37p and share is 32p so unlike GPM currently at a significant discount to NAV?.

As explained in the previous post a new warrant issue doesn't usually have much effect on the share price but perhaps GCL is an exception as it is thinly traded.

IF current NAV premium is because of new sub shares then yes, a good chance that GCL will revert to NAV or a discount. Tempting to sell if that is going to happen, miss out on the free subs, and then buy the subs once they start trading, if at a fair price. BUT risk of another little run for uranium shares before ex date, and missing out on that if selling now, so not an easy decision.

3p is too high a starting price. 1.25p would give a CFP of around 10% so that's about right, but market makers often price new issues incorrectly so GCL could well start overvalued, and even as high as 3p.

Don't know how you got the idea that I was comparing UEMS with GCLS. I was simply pointing out what good value UEMS were and trading at a discount. BUT warrants and sub shares have often traded at discounts for months and even sometimes years on end, again because of lack of knowledge on how to price them correctly. And UEMS has been at a sometimes very large discount for ages. UEM and UEMS are both up today.

My guess fwiw is that both GCL and GPM will start higher than 1.25p. Coincidentally a bit over 1p is also fair value/CFP10% for GPMS.

[quepassa] 04/12/2017 08:36

Totally disagree.

The current extraordinary 20% PREMIUM to NAV is due entirely in my view to the proposed free warrants issue (plus perhaps the market ghosts wanting to push up the underlying warrant strike price based on November-end market price)

My expectation is that, assuming the sub share issue is approved, that GCL will trade rapidly back down to NAV and that the warrants will be independently priced/valued at circa 3-4p reflecting their 3 year maturity and relatively low premium of 5/10/20% over the end-Nov '17 strike price.

To compare the time value of UEMS warrants with three months to run with the time horizon of GCL warrants with 3 years to run is not a worthwhile comparison.

The current GCL share price reflects in my opinion the value of the share - which normally trades at or below NAV PLUS the 3 year time-value of the warrants.

The value of the warrants will be split out shortly and separately traded if all goes ahead.



The REAL QUESTION is whether:

1. To hold the warrants
2. To Buy more warrants
3. To sell the warrants


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[kenmitch] 01/12/2017 22:48

Yes that was the spread, but It’s often possible to buy and sell sub shares well inside the spread. I did a dummy trade before posting and the buy price was 30p. Also there was a 100,000 trade at 30p that was probably a buy.

“So no value in UEMS at present.” That’s not the case as I explained in previous post. Also UEMS have been in the Warrants Alert list of undervalued sub shares for ages.

But you are right about the downside. It will be just as fast as the upside and the share only needs to fall just over 10% and then stay down and UEMS would expire worthless. So UEMS are only a buy if bullish on the Trust and markets. December is often an up month.

[bigtbigt] 01/12/2017 18:59

I think you'll find UEM share price is at
Bid: 28.25 Offer:31.00

So no value in UEMS at present. Each 1% further drop in UEM would reduce UEMS by some 6% or so. With global markets looking shaky, I am not a UEMS buyer right now.

But I do not disagree with your more general points about the great potential of subs on some occasions

[kenmitch] 01/12/2017 12:17

It’s very unlikely that recent share price rise is the market pricing in the likely starting price of the subscription shares. Subscription shares and warrants are rarely issued now but used to be commonplace for Investment Trusts. Announcement of a new warrant issue rarely saw the share price move up for an existing Trust. Also the mechanics of how to price subscription shares (eg CFP) is often little understood by market professionals let alone amateurs. Indeed because they are so little understood glaring pricing mistakes are common for the very few left.

E.g currently UEMS (Utilico Emerging Markets sub shares) are at far too low a price and have been for months. Exercise price is 183p ( but final expiry date very close at end of Feb) and UEM is 217p to sell. So UEMS is worth 34p but can be bought for 30p. So not only is there nothing extra to pay for the remaining time value, but UEMS is at
a 4p discount. So if confident UEM share price can rise, and currently it is at bottom of recent trading range, then UEMS is a strong buy. And there is a trustee to exercise lapsed sub shares for those who don’t want to or can’t afford to exercise.

e.g If UEM can rise 10% to 240p then UEMS worth 57p compared with 30p buy price today.

Back to GCL sub shares;there is a negative effect on NAV but only if/when the sub shares are exercised. But the big plus is that the Trust gets £millions of new money to invest when all the subs are exercised. And I’ve checked with the Trust and though no provision for a trustee to exercise lapsed sub shares is in the listing document there will be one if the subs finish in the money.

And yes; if the shares do well the sub shares will do far better. The last GCL sub shares could be bought for less than 1p just before the last big uranium rally and the sub price went up 60 fold in a few months while the share only doubled.

So great fun could be had with both GCL and GPM.

[dogberry202000] 01/12/2017 00:12

End of the month shenanigans in the uranium price is causing volatility. The strongest seasonal period is still before us.

[matt123d] 30/11/2017 21:14

337k at 26p and 362k at 25.95p

[dogberry202000] 30/11/2017 16:32

QP I agree. Possibly the biggest drivers of the GCL share price at the moment are the subscription shares and the prospects of a price recovery, gradual or otherwise, in Uranium.

I have no answer to this but I've sometimes wondered whether closed end funds like GCL, particularly at key turning points in their markets, just passively react to price changes in their holdings or anticipate them. Recently, with the announcement of the subscription shares it seems to have been the latter. Could GCL be a leading indicator? There must be a decent sized investor base here always doing their research and/or in possession of key information. I suppose, time will tell. Still, the range of holdings are attractive, compared with say URA which is heavily weighted with the leader of the sector, Cameco Corp, and you get a good mix of companies with decent prospects that could rise by over 100 fold in a bull market.

[quepassa] 30/11/2017 15:33

If the price of U3o8 sky-rockets as many,including me, think it eventually will, these GCL warrants (with the subscription price based on GCL's NAV as at 13/12/17) may prove to be extremely valuable warrants in their own right in the fullness of time.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 30/11/2017 15:28

NAV today is 21.39p.

Mid price is 24.5p.

Yes that is a premium of 3.11p per share.

However, I would suggest that this is the market pricing in a value to the proposed free warrants/subscription shares. This 3.11p may be an early pricing or "the monetary value" of the free subscription shares.


The Company spelled out the benefits of the Subscription shares as follows and maybe this is already bearing fruit:

-- Subscription Shares should represent an attractive way for investors to
participate in any future NAV growth of the Company through conversion
into Ordinary Shares at a predetermined price;

-- Qualifying Shareholders will receive securities:


-- with a monetary value;

-- which may be traded in a similar fashion to their existing Ordinary
Shares or, in due course, converted into Ordinary Shares; and

-- which are qualifying investments for the purposes of an ISA and permitted
investments for the purposes of a SIPP;


-- on any exercise of the Subscription Share Rights, the capital base of the
Company will increase, allowing operating costs to be spread across a
larger number of Ordinary Shares, and this may cause the ongoing charges
as a percentage of the NAV per Ordinary Share to fall;

-- following the exercise of any Subscription Share Rights, the Company will
have an increased number of Ordinary Shares in issue which may improve
the liquidity in the market for the Ordinary Shares; and

-- the Bonus Issue may broaden the Ordinary Shareholder base as the
Subscription Shares are dispersed in the market, attracting new investors
and improving liquidity for Ordinary Shareholders.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dogberry202000] 30/11/2017 14:40

GCL is at a premium here but the buyers want it so badly they don't care. There's been big buys going through over the last few days. It doesn't get more bullish than that.

[bigtbigt] 28/11/2017 22:51

Thanks for clarifications kenmitch