Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 10/1/2018 08:35

turning down for a period of time by the look of the shares above and the sells in the last few days. which have found happy buyers. rights also stopped rising. short time correction/consolidation.

[ronconomics] 08/1/2018 16:46

I said I'd get back with the outcome of whether i can put more subs (GCS )in an isa. Well..I just tried a further purchase near the close of business on my platform and it went straight through to add to my freebies. So no enquiry necessary. I've similar in my sipp but as we agreed there was no doubt on eligibility. Sorry if I confused anyone.

[jitters3] 04/1/2018 22:02

Thanks for your input guys

[kenmitch] 04/1/2018 11:12

There’s no doubt GCS are overvalued. But will the price fall? Yes (obviously)if NAV and share price fall.

BUT i’m now wishing I had bought more GCS around 4p as good chance based on current uranium prospects that share and NAV heading much higher soon. If that happens then even at current 7p GCS are worth buying. And a mix of share and sub is a good tactic.

Yes, if share doubles to a bit over 40p this year GCS worth 11p at 2020 exercise price but higher for 2018 and 2019 excise prices.

Also if share does get to 40p this year and uranium on a roll then GCS could well be overvalued then too. I.e still, as now, with a lot extra to pay for time value.

So if share at 40p GCS could well be around 25p and so far more upside than if just holding the share.

Worst thing would be uranium bear market lasts 3 more years and GCS end up worthless and the Trust not getting around £10 million from the subs being exercised.

[jaf111] 04/1/2018 10:51

I agree with tightfist....IMO GCS are somewhat overvalued....

[tightfist] 04/1/2018 10:30

Based on today's Offer prices, subscribing in November 2020 and a cost-of-capital of 5%pa, it looks to me as though GCS offers a better RoI return if the GCL share price then exceeds 41.6p. At 55p the RoI would double with GCS.On the other hand, if the GCL share price is then less than 28.5p, GCS would become a 100% investment loss...Bearing some scar tissue from earlier write-offs with warrants, I am sticking with GCL for the time being.

[jitters3] 03/1/2018 09:16

Must be better to sell and buy the subscription shares surely

[jaf111] 03/1/2018 07:41

A decent day for Uranium stocks over the pond yesterday.....NXE up 6% and CCO up 4%.
Should see a positive day for GCL

[kenmitch] 02/1/2018 22:16

It used to be a grey area (and wording of legal eagles could if we’re not careful reignite it) but for at least the last 10 years ALL subscription shares have been ISA eligible.

Referring you broker to the info in Que Passa’s post would imo be unwise. Far better just to point out that all subscription shares have been allowed in ISAs for years.

Good luck and HNY2U too.

[ronconomics] 02/1/2018 21:35

Ken & QP

You guys are the best.
I'll let you know what happens next.
HNY2U.

[kenmitch] 02/1/2018 16:26

ronconomics

GCS can go in to ISAs and mine are in my ISA.

Your broker should know that subscription shares can go in to ISAs but warrants (even though exactly the same thing except in name) can't.

I added to mine at 4.5p and then 6p.

Fact is, technically GCS are now very overvalued, and even more so as the gains are while the share price is falling! BUT there are two ways of looking at the valuation.

IF optimistic that the share is going to soar in time, then current price will look a bargain. e.g share price £1 and GCS worth at least 70p.

BUT if no uranium rally and best the share can manage between now and end of 2020 is around 40p then GCS only worth 11p at 2010 exercise price. So at 40p share would do just as well or even a tad better than GCS.

Also at current share price GCS is all time value,

[bigtbigt] 02/1/2018 14:28

Falling knife
Mind your fingers!

[ronconomics] 02/1/2018 12:40

Tried to buy gcs for my isa lsst week but told the security is not allowed within the wrapper. I hold my free subscription shares there on the back of an isa position on gcl interestingly. Missed today's excitement on the top up as a result.

[kenmitch] 23/12/2017 12:46

If share gets to (unlikely) £1 by Nov 2018 then the sub is worth 75p but because they often trade at a discount, the sell price likely to be a bit lower than that. Share price of £1 at final Nov 2020 expiry date and GCS worth 71p.

We can’t know now whether the share will trade at a premium to NAV, or around NAV or at a discount. Current premium is unusual and with NAV falling, Geiger Counter share is overvalued and I’ve sold mine. So I only hold the sub share.

My guess fwiw is that the share will soon go to a discount to NAV. Until recently it had traded at a discount for years.

Remember that investors can buy and sell the sub share (GCS) at any time and as often as they want to until final expiry date in Nov 2020. Whether the subs prove a fantastic investment depends on how uranium/uranium shares perform. Uranium bulls have been wrong for years. We’ve got another 3 years to hope they are right eventually.

[mustbefunny] 23/12/2017 10:20

Kenmitch

I agree that if the share price is £1 at 30Nov18 then the warrant price should be 75p, assuming no discounts. I was however trying to put a value on the warrant in comparison to the NAV rather than the share price.

If the NAV of the underlying assets rises to £1 from 25p by 30Nov18, assuming no discounnts and a 25p strike price for the warrants, what should the value of the ords and subs be at that time?

[steve73] 22/12/2017 00:47

Compare this the GPM which is currently at a huge discount to NAV, so the SS reference price (set CoB yesterday) is well above current share rice.

[tonsil] 21/12/2017 15:53

ken
what is the exercise price on UEM subs - apols for being lazy i know DYOR but i suspect its at your fingertips.

[kenmitch] 21/12/2017 14:49

Thanks.

fwiw. NAV down today to 23.8p so GCL is still at a premium. Good chance share will go to a discount again, as until buying to get the free subs, GCL has normally trade at a discount. I’ve sold GCL as unless NAV rises GCL price likely to drift lower short term, assuming some more temporary selling, as has happened today.

imo best way to play the upside is via the sub share GCS. But again short term GCS could also go lower.

EDIT. Note. UEM is 220p to sell. So UEMS (worth 37p) is a bargain at 29.2p to buy.

Also GHE and GHW on good run and up again today. GHW now 85p - 95p.

FASS. Share up to 393p. FASS will go up fast if current good run continues. Horrible spread though.

i.e. Worth keeping an eye on other good value sub shares and warrants too.

[keya5000] 20/12/2017 17:13

kenmitch, superb post, you are the man with the plan when it comes to warrants/subs.

[kenmitch] 20/12/2017 16:50

Mustbefunny.

You're obviously struggling a bit with understanding warrants and sub shares.

Pricing them is simple arithmetic.

For simplicity I've rounded up or down the exercise prices. To work out what the subs are worth just deduct the exercise price from the share price.

So currently with share price below all 3 exercise prices the sub shares only have time value as already explained by Que Passa.

NOV 2018 exercise price is 25p. So if share goes to 50p GCS would be worth 25p.

NOV 2019 exercise price is 26p. So if share goes to 50p GCS would be worth 24p.

NOV 2020 exercise price is 29p. So if share goes to 50p GCS would be worth 21p. And if share reaches £1 by Nov 2020 then GCS is worth 71p.

Note that these days the few remaining warrants and sub shares tend to trade below what they are worth and so are bargains for anyone who is confident the share prices will rise. (I posted the prices for the other warrants and subs in post 646. Already Gresham House warrants have risen from 75-80p then to 80-90p on tiny rise in share price).

BUT it also means GCS could well end up being far too cheap too. e.g if share gets to 35p some time next year then GCS would be worth 10p and more than double current GCS buy price, BUT it may well be possible to buy for less than 10p and the sell price could be well below 10p.

And yes, when the subs are exercised that hits the NAV. At some point the Trust is likely to give two NAV figures with the "fully diluted" figure being the one covering the subs being exercised.