Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[sd_anon] 01/1/2022 21:21

I was interested in the SWS comment about non cash earnings. It isn't royalties, they are very much cash earnings.

Any non cash earnings should be visible in the cash flow statement as a necessary deduction from operating profit to reconcile to cash flow but there is nothing there to suggest non cash earnings of any magnitude.

IMO SWS are just plain wrong about it. There are no non cash earnings to speak off. I would be interested to hear if anybody can find anything to suggest I am wrong about this?

[nod] 28/12/2021 05:04

Total War Warhammer 3 is scheduled for release on February 17th.
This is the 3rd entry to the Total War Warhammer series created by Creative Assembly and published by Sega. As of right now, there’s not that much known about the Campaign story of TTW3. What we do know is that the game is set in the Far East, on the realms of Kislev and Cathay.

[nod] 27/12/2021 04:11

New York Times
Christmas Day
By Shane O’Neill

[conradin] 21/12/2021 16:35

hxxps://youtu.be/TlkzcreCKrU

[nod] 18/12/2021 20:32

I don't think anybody would disagree with you.

[princesa_consuela] 18/12/2021 09:40

I stand with my position that simplywallstreet is close to useless in this case.

[conradin] 17/12/2021 22:22

Simply Wall Street

[nod] 17/12/2021 21:59

The Warning Signs are a teaser to get you to register with SWS.

[princesa_consuela] 17/12/2021 20:48

what is SWS?

[epo001] 17/12/2021 10:26

That SWS 'analysis' refers to an unpleasant warning sign, which I presume is non-cash earnings, so royalties? Good banner graphic too, very relevant.

[nod] 17/12/2021 03:30

The Embracer Group is to buy poorly run Asmodee for over $3 Billion USD. Asmodee produces some Warhammer board games under licence.
My understanding is that Embracer acquires companies and lets current management continue operating the business under the watchful eye of Embracer.

[nod] 14/12/2021 21:26

Henry Cavill, of The Witcher, confirms his dream to play a Warhammer character in a movie. Good publicity for GAW with 16 million subscribers to IGN.

[nod] 13/12/2021 20:59

The H1 results are to be released on 11 January.The bears like to have a go on result days. GAW usually throws in a few statements of caution, which then get exaggerated by the press and bears.

[nod] 13/12/2021 20:51

Edison also uses DCF and ends up with 12900 as present intrinsic value.

[princesa_consuela] 13/12/2021 11:15

I do think that the price targets of "simplywallstreet" are useless, and that in fact the only use I take from them is to know what it may be considered a "fair valuation" to be even more sure how wrong other's are estimating value.

Just for fun, nearly a year ago in Oct. 2020 simplywallstreet "fair estimate" of Games Workshop was around 40 GBP/share.

hxxp://web.archive.org/web/20201030224611/hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-durables/lse-gaw/games-workshop-group-shares

[nod] 13/12/2021 09:25

Simply Wall Street does some heavy maths to estimate the intrinsic value of GAW. The shortcut answer is 10722.https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-durables/lse-gaw/games-workshop-group-shares/news/estimating-the-intrinsic-value-of-games-workshop-group-plc-l

[liquidtyler] 12/12/2021 22:21

@nod (On the point around dividends) I wouldn't disagree with what you said, but I would say this: The goal of management is not to 'give shareholders what they want'. Their objectives are the increase shareholder wealth under the stewardship principle. For example I am sure there are many investors who don't want them to pay the staff these bonuses, however they are acting in what they believe is the best interest for maximising long term shareholder wealth, so they can independently make these judgements. An attractive feature of GAW dividend policy is that they distribute excess cash. (I.e cash which cannot be deployed into the business at a higher rate than the cost of capital, for a theoretic answer). Regarding the point around shareholders selling because the dividends on offer are not attractive, that doesn't really matter because then they are not really long term investors, what is important is increasing overall shareholder wealth (something GAW management have shown to be excellent at).

[cockerhoop] 12/12/2021 08:12

My understanding is that contracts can be structured in a variety of ways but typically would contain a licence fee and a minimum income guarantee recognised on contract signing followed by a royalty per game which could be tiered (ie different royalty rates at different sales bands - i'd imagine they are set at a % of sales price rather than fixed price to account for different prices in different regions.

[nod] 11/12/2021 23:51

Thanks for the clarification.Is it a pre-agreed amount per game sold and does it vary by the delivery method eg Steam or Store ; Does it vary by country eg rich countries sell games at a higher price.

[cockerhoop] 11/12/2021 22:50

Only the minimum income guarantees are accounted for on the signing the contracts.

Any royalties above these initial hurdles will be accounted for as the games are sold. For example Vermintide and Total War 2 have been earning ongoing royalties for several years.

[nod] 11/12/2021 20:08

License fees are accounted for when the contract is signed rather than when a product is being sold.

[nod] 11/12/2021 20:04

Licensing income is lumpy but the long-term trend is up. It is very high margin income.

[cockerhoop] 11/12/2021 13:12

From the fan responses it looks a potentially material release. No date yet but 2022 looks excellent already with Darktide and Total War 3 scheduled.

[nod] 11/12/2021 04:50

Captain Titus is back.
Space Marine 2 announced.

(video added to thread header)

[nod] 11/12/2021 04:28

The Edison update has dividends increasing over the next two years by 8.3% next year and 7.7% in 2023. At these forecasts the yields would equate to 2.6% and 2.8% Am I being unreasonable in expecting GAW to easily beat the forecasts for 2023.