Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[jadedpersimmon] 09/3/2022 13:35

Recession is likely already here.
Cost of energy spiked in europe and UK well before this war. A number of energy companies went bust (though this seems like the distant past right now).
Coupled with energy rises, the prices of food will increase around the world globally. Wheat and sunflower oil directly impacted by the war.

All of which significantly reduces disposable cash for the average household and likely significantly changes the phyche of the average person to 'save more spend less'

[cockerhoop] 09/3/2022 12:41

Not sure that's correct MB?



I interpret that as they disclosed a 0.53% short on 7th March which remains open. Positions under 0.5% not disclosed so they could have been short prior but at a lower level.

[m_e_x] 09/3/2022 11:56

Medieval Blacksmith, was the short in GAW (just checking you are on right board)? How do you get that information?

There have been a few 'bears' on here calling the fall, all the way from 125 now down to 65 ish ... I have never believed them, but they have unfortunately proven to be right this time

Is the trading update due next week? Fingers crossed for something positive!

[cockerhoop] 09/3/2022 08:09

Interesting to note that GAW sales actually rose modestly during the GFC when the business was in a much poorer state.

[nod] 09/3/2022 05:14

Customers can always find the cash for plastic crack. LoL. A recession would certainly have on impact on spending. Although, I haven't heard too many economists suggesting a recession. Britain, the USA and the EU are not at war. As with covid, this disaster could be a reason for extra spending.

[nod] 09/3/2022 05:07

Profit taking. Very often in downturns investors keep the weeds and sell the roses.

[scooper72] 08/3/2022 22:02

I am getting ready to increase my holding. I bought back in a bit early at just under £100.

[2bluelynn] 08/3/2022 15:46

I would of waited to see if it tested £60 1st next support imhoAfter that £40!!

[mozy123] 08/3/2022 11:46

Started buying back my GAW today. Opportunities like this dont come around too often.

[medieval blacksmith] 08/3/2022 10:21

mondex

A lot of it is probably down to anticipated future interest rates and not GAW in itself. When markets expect interest rates to rise then anticipated future cash flows hold less value in today's money. Growth stocks - where a lot of the anticipated 'intrinsic value' sits - are therefore affected the most. This and Hargreaves Lansdown - two of some of the best growth compounders on the LSE with strong market shares - are both getting hit. See it as an opportunity to increase holdings gently over the following months. :)

[m_e_x] 08/3/2022 09:55

I think the drop can be explained by: people will have less money to spend on plastic toys in future. And the costs of making and distributing the models has increased.

[mondex] 08/3/2022 09:48

GAW has suffered a drop of >33% since the start of the year. Would anyone like to explain this?

[nod] 02/3/2022 00:52

Barron's picked 16 European stocks that it considers undervalued and from those selected five favourites to withstand further escalation in the war. GAW is one of 5.
"European stocks that could withstand further escalation between Russia and Ukraine and are undervalued in the eyes of analysts."

[nod] 26/2/2022 23:57

Edison updated their report on 24 Feb. PER for 2022 is below 19 and we continue to grow the business.https://www.edisongroup.com/company/games-workshop-group/

[princesa_consuela] 24/2/2022 22:16

Russia GAW revenue probably very small, but I am not joking here, when I browse tiktok there are a few russian women painting figures that appear on my feed all the time. Probably the algorithm detecting I am a man who probably likes women and warhammer. Anyway, let's see if there is a TU next month with a few data points, since the management will never give us guidance for the year....

[nod] 24/2/2022 11:12

MEX, indices outperform around half of the companies in an index. Unfortunately, high performing shares tend to get hit hardest in a downturn, simply due to profit-taking. The reasons are not always economic factors, as we have seen recently, fear of the unknown drives markets down.Wars can be a good long-term opportunity to buy.Will GAW survive this global turmoil?

[princesa_consuela] 22/2/2022 09:56

And if I say something else: I don't think it is rare to see the ESG/enviornmental stuff for a company listed on the LSE Main Market and that a few months ago was not very far from the FTSE 100 threshold. Despite the current drawdown, it is not unrealistic to think it can happen in the medium term (specially if more LSE listed companies are being acquired by US companies or private equity), and the ESG/environmental requirements are a requirement.

[princesa_consuela] 21/2/2022 22:18

If there is a stock that checks both the valuation and quality with a 10/10 score please tell me which one it is, I am always opent to diversifying my portfolio.

[princesa_consuela] 21/2/2022 22:15

Regarding what m_e_x is saying, IMHO if I were to run a stock screener of some consistent revenue growth in the last 3 years (for example), plus EPS growth, plus attractive operating margins, decent FCF yield and CAPEX not taking a large part of the operating cash flow, I end up with very few names. The thing is, from my point of view, is that these characteristics are very rare and they tend to come at a price. Whenever you want to buy any of them at an attractive valuation, there *must be* something that is causing that distortion in the market: could be cyclical, terminal value risk, management is incompetent, dilutes shareholders, cyclical that has somehow benefitted and will be eaten by competition, etc... in the case of GAW, if I am buying the thing at a cheap valuation because "the press releses are vague" and "market does not like dividends not being paid in a regular pattern", I see it as a blessing that it is this the reason of the undervaluation and not a real risk to the business. Of course, I could make a wish list of how GAW could be perfect, give super exhaustive guidance, presentations, beat their own expectations, etc, but I very well know that if that were the case, the stock would be valued at a fair multiple given the market we're in. You either get the "amazing company with an annoying inconvenience at an attractive valuation" or the "amazing company with zero defects at a pricy valuation", but you don't get to choose both quality and price.

[epo001] 21/2/2022 21:00

Yes it is grim to see GAW going down while the whole of the rest of the market powers upwards. Another clown for the filter collection.

[cockerhoop] 21/2/2022 20:29

M_E_X,

Perhaps you could give a reference to the profit warning you allude to?

All I see is trading inline with board expectations.