Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[zebediah] 13/6/2019 14:12

New paints selling out. https://www.belloflostsouls.net/2019/06/gw-contrast-paints-selling-out-fast.htmlIt's crazy to see that "paint" has generated this much buzz. Think about that for a moment. It's a new type of paint with the promise of quickly getting your models battle ready and on the tabletop and hobbyists around the world are buying it up in droves. When you think about it, it kind of makes sense – this is similar to when a new edition of a core rulebook gets released. Everyone who plays the game is probably going to need to buy the book. Only in this case, instead of just one game system, it's EVERY game system. And it's not just GW's miniatures – this stuff will work for any miniatures. No wonder it's going so fast.Source: https://www.belloflostsouls.net/2019/06/gw-contrast-paints-selling-out-fast.html

[skirbell] 13/6/2019 13:39

I've also reduced my holding here a little as I was getting very over weight in my portfolio and it's been a fantastic run. I still have plenty left but at a more comfortable portfolio level.

[shanklin] 13/6/2019 10:58

Having 4 bagged from under £10 to over £50 in just over 2 years, I have sold 20% of my holding, not because I no longer like GAW but, because they had grown to just over 40% of my share holdings.

Rather irrelevantly, the proceeds and dividends have more than paid for what I have left.

Will run the rest for the moment.

[cockerhoop] 13/6/2019 09:43

bisho4,

Paint sales are circa 12-15% so far from small.

The beauty of the Contrast paint is that by speeding up painting time it'll allow hobbyists to be more productive and help remove a bottleneck in the Buy, Construct, Paint, Play chain.
There are reports in Warhammer Community of a professional painter completing 6 models using contrast in the time it used to take him to paint 1!

So my view is it'll not only simply speed up painting but will also lead to more models eventually being purchased by GAW punters.

[push n run] 12/6/2019 20:20

Thanks for the article Robin.

I love this quote at the end:

“It would be hard to find a worse slogan than ‘You’ll never go bust taking a profit’. Every sale is a confession of error.”

[robinnicolson] 12/6/2019 19:23

Good article by Nick Train with this quotation by Peter Lynch:

"McDonald's was up 10-fold after IPO but it was only in 18% of countries. Then it gets to 30% and the stock is up 30-fold. You have to know what innings you're in"



Since its flotation in 1994, Games Workshop is now up 50-fold. What innings is our business in?

[mad foetus] 12/6/2019 18:44

Well, I posted last week when I sold and all I can say is that I was wrong. A superb company and now I have the unpleasant choice of either not holding shares in it or trying to time a repurchase at much higher than I sold. A market correction and revisit to £32 would be ideal if MMs are reading. Well done holders.

[bisho4] 12/6/2019 18:30

I got a chance to try out the new Contrast Paints in store, and they are awesome.

If GW are looking to boost sales in all aspects of their business, then paint sales (whatever small percentage that is of the total) are going to increase for the 19/20 year :)

This new CEO is doing an amazing job, looking at revamping every single aspect of the game/business and improving it. Very happy lth here.

[robinnicolson] 12/6/2019 14:13

It is interesting to note the very strong inflows into the Sanford DeLand Buffettology Fund, the assets under management topping £1 billion this month. The fund is run by Keith Ashworth-Lord, a huge fan of the Games Workshop business.

I believe FCA rules dictate that OEICS cannot own more than 20% of a single company's equity but according to Morningstar their ownership interest in Games Workshop is currently just 3.48%. Apparently his fund owns 18% of Bioventix (albeit a smaller business, with a market cap. under £200 million).

They are currently exploring the possibility of opening a global fund. Perhaps they will hold Games Workshop in that too.

[daijavu] 12/6/2019 09:59

There seems to be resistance around £50

[robinnicolson] 12/6/2019 08:28

Cor blimey. Fifty quid.

[shanklin] 12/6/2019 07:47

Fair point push n run

[push n run] 11/6/2019 20:11

To be fair Shanklin, at least he's covering us. I think he's the only one?

[europa79] 11/6/2019 17:30

Amidst all the dross out there, what a bloody great share GAW has proved to be!

[shanklin] 11/6/2019 16:14

ROFL - so he gets an award for continually massively underestimating progress at GAW?

Albeit no doubt at the direction of GAW management :-)

[robinnicolson] 11/6/2019 16:13

From The Times last week:

"Charles Hall has been named the top individual analyst for uk small and midcap stocks in the closely fought annual Extel rankings.
Mr Hall, 51, head of research at Peel Hunt who covers consumer goods, spent nine years at Cazenove and nine years at Panmure Gordon before joining Peel Hunt in 2008.
His successful tips last year included recommending investors to buy Games Workshop and Genus, as well as suggesting that they dump their shares in Dignity, the funerals group.
Institutional investors, companies and individuals all vote in the survey."

Edited "madcap" to "midcap"..!

[woozle1] 11/6/2019 14:09

Analysts usually are fixated on the P&L, which would explain the inconsistency. I've met few analysts who model the c/f, b/s and the p&l and get them to reconcile.
w1

[nod] 10/6/2019 22:56

The last time Peel Hunt gave a similar anomaly PH explained it as "currency headwinds". Which suggested they forecast a strongly rising GBP once Brexit is sorted. They got "currency headwinds" wrong last time as Brexit is far from sorted.They may be throwing in a bit extra if forecasting a falling USD. A combination like this would have an impact on GAW, although you would expect to see it reflected in PBT.

[xajorkith] 10/6/2019 15:57

Good to see Blackrock adding on the trading update.

Broker forecasts remain far too cautious.

[greyingsurfer] 10/6/2019 11:24

Agree, is there any explanation of why they think FCF will fall in 2021, though they forecast rising PTP and reduced capex?

[shanklin] 10/6/2019 10:48

robin

Assuming that's Peel Hunt, no big surprise there, albeit why FCF goes down in 2021 I am not sure. Obviously dividend forecasts are as bizarre as normal.

[robinnicolson] 10/6/2019 10:11

Updated broker forecast:

FY2019:
Turnover: £255.1m
EBITDA: £88.5m
Pre-tax profit: £80.4m
EPS (pence): 196.9
Dividend (pence): 155.0
Capex: £17.5m
FCF: £52.5m

FY2020:
Turnover: £265.8m
EBITDA: £94.0m
Pre-tax profit: £84.7m
EPS (pence): 206.9
Dividend (pence): 151.0
Capex: £15.8m
FCF: £58.1m

FY2021:
Turnover: £277.4m
EBITDA: £98.0m
Pre-tax profit: £89.0m
EPS (pence): 214.5
Dividend (pence): 145.0
Capex: £15.0m
FCF: £51.1m

[robinnicolson] 09/6/2019 08:28

Some follow up on the trading statement:

"Analysts said that the retailer had been helped by the popularity of Games of Thrones, but they expected it to survive the fantasy television series' finale last month"

Well that's reassuring...

[sspurt] 07/6/2019 11:48

Love the progression in royalties - GAW products turning into franchises which have much more value..