Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 19/10/2018 18:46

Simso,

No probs, I agree that we're discussing the size of the upgrades, still lots going on. Tomorrow is a worldwide celebration of the 500th store with instore only limited edition models available.

Black Friday will have a major special release.

For them to release the revenue & profitability info in the TS I imagine they are confident in hitting H1 numbers.

Will continue to monitor.

[nod] 19/10/2018 10:43

The Playfusion cards are another example of how tabletop gaming in its many formats has taken off in recent years. I noticed on my local online store that they offered over 3,000 board games. When I looked into the brands only one game was Warhammer. The other WH games were under hobbies.

[someuwin] 19/10/2018 10:31

Bought in today.

[cockerhoop] 19/10/2018 09:00

Further ref Warmammer Champions:

"The demand for Warhammer Champions has simply been overwhelming, we never would have predicted that we would have sold almost 10,000,000 cards in just 10 days!" said Mark Gerhard, CEO of PlayFusion. "We always knew the PlayFusion team developed an outstanding collectable card game, but the tremendous response at both Games Workshop stores and local hobby stores has simply exceeded all of our wildest expectations. Supporting stores is a top priority for us."

[cockerhoop] 19/10/2018 08:53

Simso,

Actually last years profit split wasn't even it was £38.8m H1/£35.7m H2 (or £34.6 H1/31.1m ex royalties) so even a 50/50 split this year gets us to £1.90 EPS so plenty of room for further upgrades.

[nod] 19/10/2018 08:46

w1 should write the attention grabbing headlines.

[shanklin] 19/10/2018 08:43

On the subject of royalty income...

[woozle1] 19/10/2018 08:38

It is becoming obvious that 200p+ is the more likely earnings figure for this year.
w1

[cockerhoop] 19/10/2018 08:36

Simso,

Been pondering the same question regarding H1/H2 split.

I would caution on a return to the 42/58 traditional split. Whilst H1 2017 had 40k new 8th edition launch H1 2018 has had a new AoS 2nd Edition launch combined with a relentless release schedule. Obviously we don't know what is planned for the remainder of the year but it won't contain a new edition release.

Saying that the last 2 visits to my local store have been the busiest I've encountered - so much so I've been struggling to get my questions answered!

The other variable is royalty income, the consensus is that 2018/19 will be quieter on the video game release schedule. This will be countered by income from the Hachette part works and the Play Fusions Warhammer Champion card series game and app (which has been incredibly popular).

[greyingsurfer] 19/10/2018 07:43

Thanks for the Times link. Bit of a disconnect between the headline and the overall picture painted by the article. No real surprise, a shock headline is much better journalism!

[shanklin] 19/10/2018 07:31

Looking on Stockopedia, which appears to be half way through processing this, the EPS forecast for the current year has been increased from 153.6p to 168.5p. Before the update on 19-Sep it was 143.6p. This is reasonably consistent with the 10% increase in the PBT forecast mentioned yesterday.

PH is the only broker covering GAW so these are presumably their numbers.

[shanklin] 19/10/2018 07:16

Here's the whole of The Times article

Games Workshop

It does quote a second analyst who has understood the TS.

[nod] 19/10/2018 04:42

Here are the headlines from some of the more serious press. You would be forgiven for thinking that they copy each other rather than do any journalistic work on their own. Why the emphasis in the press on the standard words of caution? There was no such emphasis last year when GAW used the same sentence.
Why did none report that GAW are unexpectedly beating last year's peak sales?

Market 'uncertainties' put Games Workshop on the defensive - Financial Times
Games Workshop shares slip after it warns of uncertainties in upcoming trading periods - City A.M.
Games Workshop shares capitulate as company battles tough trading - Independent.ie
Games Workshop spooks investors with warning of uncertainty ahead - Telegraph.co.uk
Games Workshop slides on warning of 'uncertainties' ahead - This is Money

Nothing is scarier than a little reality - The Times
A dose of realism was not what investors in Games Workshop were expecting yesterday when the maker of Warhammer games issued an unscheduled trading update that warned of market “uncertainties”.
...

[hydrus] 18/10/2018 20:06

I don't think it's purposefully fake. Essentially, all journalists are actually sales people. They have to give a view on something multiple times a day, every day. No good sitting on the fence. In order to do that they have to reach a conclusion quickly and without proper research and thought. That means their analysis is frequently superficial and of no value. In relation to our interest here, it can create opportunities for well researched private investors.

[nod] 18/10/2018 19:58

The press is so full of "fake news". They all earn their money today from paid adverts on their web sites and this necessitates sensational headlines to get clicks onto their web sites. It's all about the clicks.As mentioned, GAW gave the same words of caution on 25 July 2017 and the share price spiked upwards."However, the Board remains aware that there is some uncertainty in the trading periods ahead for the rest of the 2017/18 financial year. A further update will be given as appropriate."

[simso] 18/10/2018 18:32

Sharing some simple extrapolated numbers, to compare against the upgraded PH numbers issued today.

First Half: With only 6 weeks to go until Half Year End, we should now hopefully achieve something very close to last year's first half PBT of £39m (EPS 95p).

Second Half: If one assumes last year's first half / second half fairly even profit split was abnormal (40K launch), then the average split of the previous five years PBT (Y/e May 13 to May 17) is 42% first half / 58% second half. Interestingly, the 3 more recent years Y/e May 15 - May 17 are 38% / 62%, and the five year average is distorted by a poor year in 2014. Nonetheless, for prudence, if I use the 5 year average 42/58 split, it would imply second half PBT of £54m (135p EPS).

Full Year PBT adds to £92m. I believe PH have upgraded their forecast from £62m to £68m today. I understand there may be additional cost investment in the second half, but cannot believe it can explain the gap. I would be surprised if we do not see a series of further upgrades as the year progresses.

Happy to return to the shareholder list today, and would welcome any reasons why my extrapolation is unjustified (eg is there anything about the launch programme this year which may make the first half proportionately larger as it was LY?).

[superstardj] 18/10/2018 17:29

Sensationalism

[shanklin] 18/10/2018 17:28

Blimey, more ignorance. Or, more likely, accurate reporting of ignorant commentary from one analyst?

[woozle1] 18/10/2018 17:22

From the ES

IT doesn’t take much to wreak havoc on the markets, as toy and games-maker Games Workshop found out today.
Short and sweet and providing no detail whatever, it caused shares in the company to tumble 273.8p at 3056.2p.

Analysts expressed dismay at the brevity of the statement, given that the business until this point had been renowned for always spelling out its problems.

Investors despise uncertainty and Peel Hunt now expects full-year profits to be behind last year because of higher operating costs.

The miniature figurine-maker famous for its Warhammer and the Age of Sigmar games is a favourite among investors and has enjoyed a rapid rise from small-cap tiddler to FTSE 250 stalwart over the past couple of years.

But eyebrows were raised last month and there were fears that trouble could be ahead when former chairman Tom Kirby sold £20.3 million of shares.

[superstardj] 18/10/2018 17:18

Some more comments showing an abject lack of understanding about this one ...
Still what an opportunity we have just been given to top up.

[cockerhoop] 18/10/2018 17:03

Good to have you onboard Leon, with GAW's quality metrics it looks right up your street.

[boros10] 18/10/2018 16:53

I bought for the first time today. It shares many characteristics with one of my other investments, Bioventix. Phenomenal returns on capital, cash generative and high profit margins and a tendency to underplay its view of the future and willing to be a bit different. GAW's CEO comments at the interims and finals just scream out quality, considered and honest.

[robinnicolson] 18/10/2018 16:22

From the Daily Mail:

When 'This is Money' contacted the firm for more clarity on the mysterious statement, a spokesperson declined to comment and said "no one is available to speak with regards to your query." ;-)

[robinnicolson] 18/10/2018 16:15

Peel Hunt had only recently upgraded their PBT forecasts to £62m for 2019 and £65m for 2020.

Charles Hall of PH today:
"This is an impressive performance given the tough comparison [to last year]. The company has been active in scheduling releases to ensure continued momentum, which will result in a strong first-half performance. We now expect second-half sales to be ahead of last year but profits to be lower due to the timing of cost increases".