Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[technofiend] 10/7/2015 04:41

Thanks Saucepan and others.

I'll stay out for the time being.

[shakyhands] 09/7/2015 22:14

The debt providers should presumably have to rank behind potential insurance claimers in the queue,otherwise the money wouldn't stand as security for future claims - does it work that way in practice?. If it does,then the debt would be high-risk,so the interest rate would be so high that it wouldn't be worth doing.They'd be better off just running off the existing claims against existing capital,while cutting overheads to the bone.
Ditto for any share placement while the management are under a cloud.New management needed.

[taylor20] 09/7/2015 21:35

The two main issues that I thought had been raised were:

Provisioning - i.e. that it is easy to show rapid earning growth by writing lots of new business... but there is a significant lag before you actually know if that business is as profitable as the company believes it is.

Capital Shortfall - The company is still negotiating with structured-debt providers, its only got until Jan 2016... after which it will be prevented from writing new business. The longer they take the worse the terms will be.

[eezymunny] 09/7/2015 21:34

The shares may indeed be cheap shaky. Or they may expensive. Unless you have some understanding of what policies are still in force, and what the current and future liabilities for those policies may be, you can't say which.

The history is one of under-reserving for future claims and booking of profits which went up in smoke as claims came in.

One to be very very careful with unless you understand in detail what is going on - which your average PI just ain't going to be able to do. Your average PI shouldn't fall into the trap of looking only at the P/E ratio. That would be very dangerous. If they need to raise fresh equity it could be at a much lower price than today's share price They may go bust.

I should stress that I have no idea what is going to happen here and offer no opinion at all on whether it's cheap or expensive! Just think you need to understand what you're getting into if you hold these.

[shakyhands] 09/7/2015 21:15

Whilst I appreciate that that is really bad,the shares are looking really cheap now.

[tsmith2] 09/7/2015 20:58

Misled investors re: provisioning and claims

[saucepan] 09/7/2015 20:55

TechnoFiend: you will get some good insights from this thread if you have the interest/patience to trawl back through it - especially discussion following the publication of latest results.

The headline numbers are not as good as they seem. There is a lot buried in the small print of latest results. It is worth being cautious - but no advice intended.

[technofiend] 09/7/2015 19:03

So Gable appears to be a decent company with good growth prospects that has ran into a negative period of performance.

However I am staring at this collapsing share price wondering "what does the market know that I don't".

Are future prospects really looking this bad now for Gable?

[adyfc] 09/7/2015 10:38

Just gets £850k to soften the blow each year.

[the shuffle man] 09/7/2015 10:33

He did actually buy 100k not 10k and he has got nearly 25m shares so he has suffered as well as all of us.

Very disappointed with the share price :-(

[adyfc] 09/7/2015 10:23

I think Dewsall deserves a bonus to buy some new gold golf clubs.

[shakyhands] 09/7/2015 10:09

Billy,you appear to be talking in generalisations.What is the situation at Gable ?

[billy_liar] 09/7/2015 09:49

Directors milking a company for all they can then stepping aside at some point. New team moves in, massive restating of accounts and write-offs, requests for more funds from the market, then rinse and repeat.

Never seen that scenario before? If not then you haven't been investing for long, or you are just gambling rather than investing which is what the Directors of these companies rely upon.

Caveat emptor.

Apply more due diligence to buying shares than you would your latest car purchase, or better still as an analogy to choosing your wife/husband since investments made correctly should be with you for life!

[tsmith2] 09/7/2015 09:04

Numis to Zeus...definitely doesn't inspire much confidence.something just doesn't feel right here.Note that other than 10,000 shares,directors purchases have been zilch since update

[saucepan] 09/7/2015 08:46

Ugly new lows being made, I see.

[the shuffle man] 06/7/2015 09:21

Any views on the change of advisor to Zeus ?

The shares haven't done well since the change to Numis, maybe Zeus will offer better advice.

[battlebus2] 23/6/2015 20:50

AGM may have gone down well given the rise today??

[adyfc] 19/6/2015 23:15

But Dewsall's got to keep the fat bonuses rolling in for the golf course. That's why the 'profits' need to be reported pronto.

[garbetklb] 19/6/2015 20:20

Shuffle Man
We know the under-provisioning is NOT behind us - they have told us that they need another £7.5m this year.
But they don't say which underwriting years this covers - so we are left hoping (and no more than that) the current years are being correctly reserved.
I should emphasise that reserving isn't a precise science - reserved at actuarial best (gu)estimate, they could easily be over or under reserved by a significant amount.
Yesterday I spoke to my successor at the company I used to work for - I left 8 years ago and whilst the underwriting years I was responsible for are looking OK at the moment, it's still too soon to declare a result...... But we would never have dreamt of declaring a profit as quickly as GAH felt they could. Worth thinking about......
All the best

[the shuffle man] 19/6/2015 12:25

Hoping they take the opportunity next week at the AGM to issue a statement to try and give some confidence and change sentiment in this share.

Market needs some reassurance on the steps they are taking to address the new Basel II rules coming in next year.

If the over provisioning is behind us and they can address the potential capital issue the shares look very cheap at these levels IMO.

[aimingupward2] 07/6/2015 16:40

You really should have a close look then!

[battlebus2] 07/6/2015 16:32

No not one aiming upwards you can find them on the thread BBUS.

[aimingupward2] 07/6/2015 16:25

>40 holdings! Wonder if you've got GBO amongst them. My best bet over the the next 12 months.

[battlebus2] 07/6/2015 12:37

All very true luckymouse but i do believe these are currently worth around 35p, if they can prove themselves they will be worth a whole lot more. As investments go it is HIGH RISK but for me averaging it's sensible to wait and see. This is only one of 40 plus stocks i hold which is my own risk management.
As ever dyor etc...