Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[aimingupward2] 01/6/2015 18:20

"Good to see I'm not alone in my thoughts "

Almost inevitably you get lots of critical comment on a company and it' s management when bad results are published, but this does not necessarily mean that it's on it's last legs and won't recover. Selling out close to what will be seen,in a year's time, to have been a share price bottom is probably not a good move, so I share you're view battlebus.

[eezymunny] 01/6/2015 18:04

Capturing market share by writing policies that prove, ultimately, to be loss-making overall, perhaps to the extent that your very survival is threatened, does not strike me as a value-adding concept. When you try to ramp up the premium on renewal you're just back competing with everybody else, no?

You just have to look back at Independent Insurance to see what can happen to a fast growing insurer writing policies at the wrong price. I should stress that I have no idea if the same could happen here....no idea at all. This may be a great or terrible time to buy GAH - I have no idea which.

[battlebus2] 01/6/2015 17:54

Good to see I'm not alone in my thoughts shakeyhands.

[shakyhands] 01/6/2015 17:48

There is some value to increasing revenue and capturing market share.Gable has fallen a long way very quickly.It is cash-rich albeit a lot of that cash must be held in reserve.I think it will bounce.

[battlebus2] 01/6/2015 16:05

That's your view Ed 123, i still think we will settle in the mid thirties , no advice intended..

[ed 123] 01/6/2015 16:02

It's only going to bounce if the buying pressure exceeds the selling pressure. After what we've read, why would anyone buy? OK, technical traders may be looking for a bounce but they are effectively relying on finding someone even less astute on fundamentals to buy from them to get their exit. Sure, the Company can point to increased sales but anyone can 'buy' turnover. If the business is to be viable long term, they need to pay out less in claims over the full insurance period than they take in premiums....... In the meantime, the auditors have highlighted material concerns with these results.

Some auditors have been critisized in the past for not spotting/not stating concerns. At least folk have been warned here.

[battlebus2] 01/6/2015 16:00

LOL we will see :))

[billy_liar] 01/6/2015 15:30

Lead balloons don't bounce.

[battlebus2] 01/6/2015 15:00

Get ready for the bounce :))

[battlebus2] 30/5/2015 18:56

Yes I had the stop in place but changed my mind. Hasn't been a great decision so far but I have a habit of sticking with it and feel all is not lost here.

[spooky] 30/5/2015 18:31

BB - I thought that you had a 30p stop.

[battlebus2] 30/5/2015 14:07

Lucky mouse the point is that is all in the past, the future outlook is much better imv.

[luckymouse] 30/5/2015 12:55

battlebus - what did the brokers say at the top of the huge slide down - were they truthful?

[battlebus2] 30/5/2015 12:36

Yes a lot has to said about how this company has been badly or even mismanaged, almost too many to list and all documented in various excellent posts above. I've been asked by a few fellow investors why are you still here flogging a dead horse?? Well if I'd bought at 50p or above likewise I'd have sold down a few times so can fully understand why everyone has jumped ship. The difference now is the risks are for me almost all in the current price and the market has punished the share price accordingly. After buying on Friday my average is now 34p with the current share price 27/28 so still a long way to break even. I feel we can get back to atleast that price so happy to be a holder for now. I have been in contact with the co expressing my disappointment and distrust and have received some reassurance that barring another unforeseen major claim the procedures are in place to see us through the next growth phase. Time will tell I guess and as ever no advice intended DYOR etc.

[saucepan] 30/5/2015 10:46

William Dewsall took out from the Company £855,000 in remuneration for the year 2013 alone *. I have not been able to find a figure for 2014. He clearly makes his millions that way. I am not sure that could be described as suffering :-)

* Source: 2013 Annual Report (available on the Company website)

[the shuffle man] 30/5/2015 10:34

Everyone is slagging off Dewsal and probably rightly so but he has a lot of skin in the game with an 18% holding so is suffering like all of us.

[billy_liar] 30/5/2015 09:21

Once again I watched reasonably significant profits dwindle as the share price dropped over the last 12 months, until eventually showing a loss. Once again I tried to convince myself that it wasn't people in the know that were offloading, as all market sensitive information would be put out in the open for all shareholders to digest. Once again I was wrong and clearly the Directors have shown the only interests they serve are their own and those of their closest buddies.

Sold most of my holding yesterday morning (may keep the residual holding to keep some skin in the game, but I'll more than likely sell into any strength, not that I expect any).

Once again the key investing lesson learned here is the need to find companies with trustworthy management (one of Warren Buffet's key factors no less!).

Thanks for the great postings above from some clearly very knowledgeable posters about how the industry works (or should I say 'should work').

[topvest] 30/5/2015 08:43

Interesting. I'm not sure that you could call Numis independent as they will be the party organising a lucrative fundraising if required. I've lost most of my investment here anyway so will hold on to the few I have on the hope that they turn things around and have a better 2015.

[battlebus2] 29/5/2015 23:09

Printa don't believe we will be anywhere near 20p.

Gable Holdings (LON:GAH)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by analysts at Numis Securities Ltd in a research report issued to clients and investors on Friday. They currently have a GBX 50 ($0.77) price objective on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 55.64% from the company’s current price.
Broker Numis says BUY Gable (GAH). Says 2014 results were impacted by abnormal losses and consequent margin caution to our forecast of £9.4m on the same basis. As flagged in the February trading update, Gable suffered a large fire claim in France and the UK business is now also reported to have experienced two unusually large losses. In total these abnormal claims cost a net amount of £5.1m. Including these losses we calculate a combined ratio of 95%, indicating inherently profitable underwriting margins, but substantially weaker than a COR of 70% in 2013. The statutory pre-tax result was a loss of -£5.4m (NSe £4.4m profit), which includes an additional reserve adjustment of £6.3m (NSe £5.0m). NTA at Dec-14 was 17p, being a decrease of 4p during the year. Price target 50p

Separately, analysts at FinnCap reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Gable Holdings in a research note on Thursday.

[prita] 29/5/2015 18:52

Took a big loss buying at 82p and selling at 58p some time back and vowed never to get involved again. Out of curiosity thought I'd have a glance and suprised to see it about half from my sell price! Looks like their is good support at 20p. Might take an initial position there...

[solarno lopez] 29/5/2015 16:27

What evidence do you have that indicates city boys are buying ?

[apfindley] 29/5/2015 16:13

Motive MTVNext to blow 10 bagCity boys loading up to pump it next week.

[battlebus2] 29/5/2015 16:00

It is high risk that's why i said it, makes sense for me to average down from 39.5p.

[ed 123] 29/5/2015 15:35

battlebus2.

"High risk" is not deterring your followers. :-0

It's to be hoped they don't all run for the exit at the same time. MM's will be waiting. ;-/

[battlebus2] 29/5/2015 15:22

Could rebound to 30+ imv..