Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 28/5/2015 07:24

Hi Ed 123, the market is all risk and this one is no different, i'm not as gloomy as most on here and will be adding if we fall any lower, there is value here if your patient enough to see it through. Like you say the market had already got wind hence the fall over the last few months, to me this has been already priced in and i look forward to a rising share price over the next period. This is one of forty holdings for me so the risk is always mitigated. All imho as ever dyor etc and GLAH.

[ed 123] 28/5/2015 07:19

Agree it appears that the market (ie. not private investors) knew about the UK fire claim. Imo the market should have been informed (ie. rns). Not to have done so impacts on the level of trust between management and shareholders.

My concern is: Are they winning lots of business because they are underestimating the risks? Further, are they doing this to get hold of the upfront premiums in order to meet claims? What happens later, when a percentage of these insurance contracts result in claims? Will they need to write even more to get funds to meet the next round of claims? The risk here is they downward spiral.

Of course, my worries may be misplaced and it might all go swimmingly.

Being one who likes to sleep at night though, it's not for me.

For holders, I hope it proves me wrong.

[hydrus] 28/5/2015 07:07

Too risky for me, my concern was that multiple years get affected by a 'one off' event, meaning that in reality this isn't a particularly profitable company, with the added worry that a catastrophic year for claims could wipe it out

[stegrego] 28/5/2015 07:00

They have written 40 million euros from that new contract alone so far this year, so the written premiums is going to sky rocket.
Not much use if they can't reinsure more of the risk and if they get large claims again.

I suppose it is par for the course with insurance industry - if you get lots of claims, like floods hurricanes etc then you lose. If you avoid those then you win. Very hit and miss though.

[saucepan] 28/5/2015 06:52

Only watching from the sidelines as a past holder. However, the results read to me somewhat like groundhog day: more fires that the market had got wind of before private investors.

The frequency of the fires seems to undermine GAH's claim that heavy insurance losses are rare events and do not need strong cash reserves to provide for.

[tsmith2] 28/5/2015 06:49

Yes and particularly the recent weakness

[billy_liar] 28/5/2015 06:44

Certainly seems to have leaked out somewhere looking at the graph over the last 12 months! Not overly impressed by selective leaking - would have much preferred bad news out in the open for all, particularly as mentioned above, when that bad news is material!

[adyfc] 28/5/2015 06:43

Problem is the outlook on every rns is positive-looks promising in the the hope they can turn it around in the next 12 months.The tail is catching up and it's got a nasty sting.

[tsmith2] 28/5/2015 06:39

Yes, that's my point..and yes, surely that should have been reported...

[stegrego] 28/5/2015 06:34

No mention previously of UK claim, surely that was material at 5 million?
Outlook sounds reasonable.

[the shuffle man] 28/5/2015 06:33

Looks like additional reserving is now done so profits should return strongly this year. Outlook looks positive. Recent weakness must have been on the back of this additional reserving which i don't think was factored in to estimates. Let's hope we have seen a bottom and can move on from here.

[tsmith2] 28/5/2015 06:33

Prob with GAH is that it's historically grown top line but the bottom hasn't necessarily followed...and the two claims producing a loss show that they've under provided significantly for claims..You can see that with the Italian business growth too...you would have thought that they would have been prudent and further increased the reserves in line with the unexpected increase in premiums written..Gauging by recoveries on previous claims Not fully reinsured at all either...so a large incident will knock off profits One to but unconvincing?

[battlebus2] 28/5/2015 06:31

It's all about the future imv...


"2015 has begun strongly with record GWP in Q1 reflecting the Group's strong franchise and range of innovative niche products. The Group continues to see attractive new business opportunities which are well supported by quota share reinsurance arrangements with major reinsurers. We expect these partnerships to continue as our pipeline of new business opportunities grows and we are also exploring a number of strategic alternatives in order to seek to optimise returns on equity.

"When we announced in March 2015 the new product for Italian motor fleets, our conservative expectation was for an initial programme of Euro 10 million of gross written premiums per annum. We are delighted that as a result of increased demand we have already written Euro 40 million of this business to date and expect this to increase to Euro 75 million on an annualised basis.

"We fully expect 2015 to result in a record year of growth with our pipeline of new business providing the next stage of momentum for the Group."

[cottoner] 28/5/2015 06:29

Dividends may be paid in 2016.

[francoismyname] 28/5/2015 06:25

Looks positive to me . The Italian business is fantastic news a near 700% rise expected

[adyfc] 28/5/2015 06:15

Shocking. £5.4 million loss. They're just writing any old business to generate revenue. It looks very overvalued.

[francoismyname] 28/5/2015 05:28

Let's hope my small holding here sees some daylight today.

Frustrating as the company makes a decent profit and appears to have a very good BOD.

Let's hope today's results move us in the right direction.

[cottoner] 27/5/2015 13:44

Directors (CEO and FD) bought shares on the same day as the TU in Feb in the 43/44p range.

There were also several lots of Director buys at over 70p last Sept 2014.

Be interesting to see if they buy after tomorrow's results.

[ed 123] 27/5/2015 13:36

Confident outlook was indeed expressed in February but the share price has fallen steadily since then. To me, that doesn't say, 'All is well.'

Yes, sellers can have their own agendas. The sells may be something specific to the selling institution. We just don't know.

Not long to wait.

[battlebus2] 27/5/2015 13:13

I said a few weeks back their was a seller but was sharply put in my box so not mentioning THERE'S A SELLER again.. Who knows why???

[cottoner] 27/5/2015 13:11

Confident outlook expressed in Feb TU.

Outlook
January 2015 has started extremely well with an estimated Gross Written Premium of £15 million including £9 million of new commercial SME business introduced to Gable via its broker network. The Company's focus continues to be on profitable niche business with the objective of generating a strong underwriting profit at CORs of under 90 per cent. Gable has also commenced the process of putting part of its cash resources, which exceed £42 million, to work through a measured investment programme with a specialist advisor.


The Board expects to continue to deliver profitable growth for the foreseeable future and the Board will continue to manage the business in a prudent and professional manner. Gable's Solvency II preparations are well advanced and the Company remains committed to building capital reserves to prudent levels.

Commenting, William Dewsall, Chief Executive, said: "2014 saw an increase in claims activity which has impacted our profitability but I remain pleased that we will still report a creditable result. I believe that our risk management protocols provided the Company with the essential protections which mitigated a large proportion of the downside, whilst allowing us to provide a swift and efficient service to our insured customers. January 2015 was the strongest single month of new premiums in the Company's history and I fully expect this growth to continue throughout the year. We will build upon the strengths the business has accumulated in both balance sheet terms and as a reliable brand in a growing number of product categories and countries in Europe."

[ed 123] 27/5/2015 13:06

Less than three hours to go, then no chance to change holdings before the results announcement.

There still appears to be an institutional holder selling. When the private investors build up a bit of strength, the selling kicks in. Eg. see the 100,000 share sell today, printed at 10:56:28. It looks like other selling followed it.

If the seller were expecting good news or even a relief rally, would s/he be offloading on the day before the results?

Battlebus2. You say you are confident. I couldn't be confident, seeing this pattern of trading. I'm staying on the sidelines. Not long to wait. Good luck to all.

[battlebus2] 27/5/2015 12:26

No worries , i'm confident we will have seen the back of the bad news with a great forward outlook statement..

[the shuffle man] 27/5/2015 09:43

Fingers, toes and everything else crossed LOL

[cheshire man] 27/5/2015 09:21

Buyer's this morning for the hopefully good news in the morning :-)