|Just trying out a new signal system on a whole bunch of different stuff - different timeframes, assets, indices etc - and yep - on the weekly (daily too but messier) - it gave a clear sell signal one month prior to the results 11Sep2014.
Wish I had known that particular trading system back then - could have retired on that short lol
1. Over Extension 2. Divergence 3. Turn 4. Break|
|Good luck to you too.|
|Hi guys, you are both very experienced & been through a few hedges :) So i genuinely respect your opinions.
You have overriding reporting events, macro events, and political rotation events, and TA for the space in between - which is 80% of the time. Provided the mkt is transparent, and there is some liquidity, the pre tells are in the chart for sure - but only for the advanced viewer - takes ages to learn unfortunately. In this case the best signal was in the mthly - which few look at - so almost impossible to spot!
(EDIT: and weekly - see below - not so impossible to spot after all - doh - eats part of hat lol)
The news overrides for sure - esp if there is positive or negative surprise. So when there is real transparency the TA works, when there is surprise it doesnt. And skill in reading the rns contents, the 'personality' of the rns, and what that means in terms of co growth life cycle in particular (start of a new cycle or end of one), then becomes the main read. So i agree with you in this case, because of the surprise & because the rns personality was disingenuous, and because the growth life cycle ended. Of course there was also the offshore profile..
I hope your other investments are running well
|I don't know much about charting. But, whilst I can see it having some use with large cap, liquid, shares, I struggle to see it being helpful on v small caps. Especially in "interesting" cases like this.
Fundamentals rule for these v small companies - and not just announced info.
I completely agree with Effortless Cool.|
If you think that improving your charting skills is the way to avoid disasters like this in future, then you have learned the wrong lesson from the experience.|
|Chart upto & inc Sep 2014 results where the significant fire (which had been unreported) and the substantial extra provisioning was revealed - thereby roughly halving the pbt.
Now my charting skills are significantly more advanced i decided to revisit this to see if my eyes see anything different.
There is a triple top with a large shooting star prior - but that had mostly completed its height - and share price then seemed to make a dbl btm with modestly rising money flow into the results - rising MF, and esp strong rising MF, prior is usually a v good sign - so folks were expecting this to be good. If MF falls like a stone prior, as with BT recently, then get out. We didnt get that signal here. It also became v choppy - which i now know means a battle between buyers and sellers - sometimes pi's on one side - inst's on the other.
A shooting star immediately prior is bad (i bet was when the insiders knew in hindsight) but this was an imperfect star & 2 mths earlier. The only other clue was the TSI was below zero. V. Strong runners tend to have it above zero - i wouldnt have known that back then. The triple top also looked a bit like an expanding sideways wedge - a little known reversal pattern, hard so spot even today in the volatility. So a bit cruel, because the tell, the imperfect shooting star & expander, was actually detached prior by a couple of mths & should have had an accomanying rns! The LT weekly chart also showed a touch of rolling, and the monthly actually revealed top divergence (a huge signal!), but mthly rarely looked at. It also wasnt rising as you might expect a very ahead runner to, but that often happens. The fact that the best signal was on the mthly which is unusual reveals there was a slow leak or slow realisation. Basically it was a surprise because they werent upfront. I remember you also had to read the RNS 2 to 3 times to figure out the earnings had effectively halved. Which also revealed their propensity to be less than ingenuous.
So in conclusion - even today - not an easy read - the tells were too subtle and long term based. But correct decision to instantly get out on the day when presented with negative surprise.|
|Hi Garbetklb, I think the scams that were mentioned were Gable's involvement in providing cover for Axiom Legal Financing Fund and Argentum Capital Litigation Fund. There may be others. All connected to the legal service of "no win no fee". I do not think Gable paid out on any of the policies that it issued, although I understand there are some litigation matters for Gable to address.|
|Thanks - Corvus I already know about. Not an outfit that appeals in the slightest.
I've an insurance background - so interested in the "sham insurance"|
|Corvus were the group that effectively floated Gable through one of their shells|
Can you expand on the "sham insurance for at least three investment schemes" - I've not heard of that before & am curious.
If you look back at my posts, you'll see that I've never been a fan......!
Until recently I'd failed to connect Mike Hirschfield / Corvus / Cloudtag et al
|Offshore insurer Gable Insurance ordered to stop writing new business
Oct 03 2016
Liechtenstein insurer Gable Insurance, whose Cayman Islands parent is listed on the London Stock Exchange's AIM and which has provided apparently sham insurance for at least three investment schemes that swindled investors out of more than £200 million, has been ordered to stop writing new business by its local regulator.
Slippery Mike has also managed to swipe a bundle off CTAG pis too,exiting on the hyped up peak|
|Useless & Toothless FCA Confirms formal death of AIM casino disaster story Gable
Published 2 hours ago
The FCA has put out a statement confirming that it is all over at Gable (GAH). William "piggy" Dewsall has made £15 million, but shareholders have lost everything and now it seems that policy holders will be screwed too. Gable issued statements while its shares traded that were simply not true but will there be any action against piggy or hapless Nomad Zeus? Whaddya think? The FCA confirms the worst:
SCANDAL: PWC lays bare the £60 million black hole at Gable and the massive regulatory failure on AIM
Published 4 days ago
PriceWaterhouseCcoopers, PWC, is acting as administrator to the subsidiaries of Gable Holdings (GAH) and has published a damning report making clear the black hole that has existed there since the start of the year. The shares were suspended only on September 12. This is a scandalous failure on the part of Nomad Zeus and the Oxymorons at AIM Regulation.
|hTTp://www.shareprophets.com/25352 The £60 million black hole....|
|Not sure what this means
Gable owner barred from insolvency proceedings Matthew Neill 14 November 2016
Gable Holdings has been prohibited from attending a shareholder meeting called by special administrator PwC on behalf of Gable Insurance.
In a statement, Gable Holdings, the parent company of Gable Insurance, said it had challenged PwC's appointment in the Liechtenstein court and lambasted the accounting firm's proposals, which it said were not "in the best interests of either policyholders or creditors".
Prior to PwC's appointment by the Liechtenstein regulators, Gable Holdings said it had been negotiating with two parties that...|
the shuffle man
|Yep - so instead of a BHS Philip Green style asset strip job (to the wife) - this was a premium strip job (to offshore)|
|At a guess, BH didn't as they would have stopped doing business with Gable ASAP and I don't think they did.
I don't recall any particular shocks - except them finding that the ATE policyholder couldn't / wouldn't pay the premium GH had in their books. Although, to be fair, that was a pretty substantial shock. But they should never have been running / been allowed to run such a large risk. The company was reckless, the regulator incompetant - as I said a couple of years ago, the Board was singularly lacking in insurance experience.....
Otherwise, they didn't have any particular shocks - the problem was more of simply charging too little for too much cover. After all, what did they have to offer? Cheap price, wide coverage - and, maybe (because I don't know), higher than average commissions to the producing brokers?
Given a choice between a larger/better known company in a mainstream jurisdiction or Lloyds and Gable (Small, based/regulated in a mickey mouse jurisdiction, run by someone who had previously had a run-in with the FSA) why would you choose / recommend Gable?
The company isn't teetering on the edge of bankruptcy because of Solvency 2 - it's because claims + expenses have substantially exceeded premiums. And, within expenses, the ludicrous salary to Dewsell plus the fees paid to Hogarth, which he owns.|
|Maybe B.Hathaway tipped off the regulator in some way once they started doing business & found some inconsistencies? Agree the whole thing may have been a well glossed ride unable to withstand any real shocks to support one massive salary.|
|I'd be pretty confident that Gable are hopelessly insolvent - and that an analysis would/will show that their underwriting has been pretty awful pretty much from the start. I very much doubt that Gable have actually made (as opposed to reported....) a profit in (m)any underwriting years.
I doubt we'll hear much from Dewsell - why would he want to comment?
But this suggests that the comments about all the problems being caused by Solvency 2 wasn't entirely the whole story.
What does interest me is why the hell the Italian subsid of Berkshire Hathaway had anything to do with Gable - reputational risk chaps...... I wouldn't be surprised if BH did something to help out the people they introduced to Gable. I doubt any of the other poor policyholder will do so well.
And shareholders won't see a penny.|
|Proposal to put to a general meeting of shareholders today. Who is going to give more funds to Dewsall.|
the shuffle man
|Further information on Gable Insurance AG
On 10 October 2016, the Liechtenstein Financial Market Authority (FMA) has appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers AG, Birchstrasse 160, 8050 Zürich, Switzerland (PwC) as Special Administrator (Sonderbeauftragte) for Gable Insurance AG. PwC assesses the financial situation of Gable Insurance AG and protects the interests of Gable Insurance AG‘s policy holders.
PwC informed the FMA that they have good cause to suspect the over-indebtedness of Gable Insurance AG. On that basis, PwC stopped making payments to brokers and policy holders in order to ensure that no policy holder is preferred to the detriment of other policy holders.
PwC called for an extraordinary shareholders meeting of Gable Insurance AG on 11 November 2016 to give the shareholder of Gable Insurance AG, Gable Holdings Inc., a final opportunity to provide the capital required to avoid the initiation of winding-up proceedings.
Further, PwC notified on 31 October 2016 the competent Liechtenstein court of the company’s over-indebtedness, and asked the court to postpone the commencement of winding-up proceedings at least until the date of the extraordinary shareholders meeting.
The FMA takes all supervisory measures to protect policy holders and is in close contact with the national competent supervisory authorities in those European countries in which Gable Insurance AG wrote business. Moreover, the FMA is closely cooperating with the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA).
The FMA is not in a position to provide information on questions of contract law. Further questions may be addressed to the Special Administrator (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Information on Gable Insurance AG, 13 October 2016
Information on Gable Insurance AG, 15 September 2016
|so would you if you read the administrators were going to take £4m a year for their services|
|Gable administrator asks court to delay bankruptcy
|---Translation from above--- Dewsall is keeping the company going for as long as he can to extract every last £ in wages before it goes under.|