Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[mw16] 18/4/2016 21:05

Why are they not a fair playing field?

[francoismyname] 18/4/2016 17:34

I bought the 2x 100k at 9.2.

Price didn't move at all after trades.

The markets are not a fair playing field , we all know that.

Just hope to be on the right side when this hopefully moves up.

Was told approx 6 years ago when this was 15p this was a good punt and was rewarded when price went to 40''s when I sold and then onwards to 80p.

Always therefore had a soft spot for the company and still feel it can turn things around in the coming months , years.

[mw16] 18/4/2016 17:23

Can anyone explain why the price fell today?

[battlebus2] 13/4/2016 14:47

Yes it's quite a fall though i only joined the fun at 30p with an average now in the high teens. Sticking with it now as things never play out so simple so maybe a twist or two to come yet...

[saucepan] 13/4/2016 14:44

Good luck with it. Sorry, I was not intending to rub salt into the wounds. GAH is however, quite instructive on just how far a share price can fall once an uptrend rolls over.

[battlebus2] 13/4/2016 14:41

Yes not so good saucepan, it hasn't been a good investment to say the least, i suppose i should say so far.......

[saucepan] 13/4/2016 14:39

Price dropping ever lower, I see.

[luckymouse] 04/4/2016 21:19

Garbetklb - insightful industry knowledge - tks

topvest - succinctly put

Feel for the longs here - TSI not showing any strength

free

[garbetklb] 31/3/2016 22:28

I'm afraid I'm generally in agreement with topvest & adyfc.

The comment about the "cost" of the Quota Share is rather odd - the QS is a means of passing on business that they don't have the capacity to keep themselves. Normally (assuming the business is any good - and maybe this is the key) they would earn a commission from the QS reinsurer. The word "cost" might imply that they are earning a negative commission?

They are mainly a writer of long tail business (as commented upon by topvest) - so I'm surprised at the £2m-£3m net hit from flooding. And I'm surprised at the wide range of the potential flood loss - suggests that their catastrophe reinsurance isn't v effective, or that they are still "discussing" how the cover works with their reinsurers. To be fair, flood losses can be pretty difficult to pin down in terms of how many losses (and reinsurance excesses for GAH) the flooding should count as.

The fact that the predicted loss has remained the same as previously, despite a flood hit of £2m - £3m suggests that they are accounting a similar profit from the rest of the business, which is largely long tail, I believe. Echoes of the past......?

WD's comments about Allianz Risk Transfer AG made me smile. Allianz are Premier Division, GAH are not. Allianz certainly haven't gone to Lichtenstein for the quality of regulation - I can't see the regulator having much of an idea about their business. And, realistically, he really has no need to be concerned there.

[adyfc] 31/3/2016 19:02

As long as they keep writing more £ than the last year they can keep the illusion going but when they can't, turn off the lights.

[topvest] 31/3/2016 18:57

This is a pile of absolute rubbish. The strategy appears to be....write a load of long-tail insurance at dodgy rates. Use the cash to pay directors large fees. Then the claims eventually come in and end of story. Very poor quality business indeed.

[saucepan] 31/3/2016 16:11

Going bust? I don't know. The main observation I have is that GAH still has the ugliest of charts. It does not look as if the market is convinced.

[battlebus2] 31/3/2016 08:06

Let's hope so.

[the shuffle man] 31/3/2016 08:03

I am hoping this is now the bottom.

The extra provisions of £7.5m will now stop so barring any further natural disaster they should comfortably be back in profit next year.

[battlebus2] 31/3/2016 07:01

Trading update out....still going bust guys??

[topvest] 28/2/2016 12:17

Still another 12p to lose as the business is not viable in my view.

[luckymouse] 27/2/2016 19:24

Possible bounce coming technically - but in the background there's also a risk it will test support if any bad news appears or stk mkt plunges - dust to dust

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[the shuffle man] 26/2/2016 11:14

Looks like we are due a trading update based on last years one. Hopefully this will shed more light on the current worries.

[ramridge] 26/2/2016 10:40

The key question to me is whether this company has fire sale value, and if there is, what is it.
Looking at the HY2015 figures, BV stood at £25m and Net BV at £17m. So on current share price, that's a discount of 32% and 19% respectively to the market value.

On first impression it might attract a bid from a bigger player. But there is one factor that worries me. The balance sheet shows a huge amount of receivables, £90m. I don't see anywhere any provision for bad debts. Given the immense pressure the management has been under, it is not inconceivable that these receivables are inflated. If you apply say a 20% haircut that means £18m of dodgy receivables, which just about equals the market cap. That makes the value of the company pretty well zero.
So my conclusion is that GAH is uninvestible both as an investment and as a punt.

all IMO & please DYOR

[valhamos] 25/2/2016 17:38

Hence "reasonably" encouraging. I do not know his personal financial circumstances. He needn't have bought any at all.

[ed 123] 25/2/2016 17:15

FD's gross remuneration last year was £215,000. If the market had it all wrong and Gable's shares were worth far more than 12.5p each, wouldn't Mr Hirschfield have bought more than £19,000 worth?

While I'm looking at remuneration, how many companies can you name where the Chief Executive receives over 4 times the remuneration of the Finance Director?

Data from "PayScale" suggests that, on average, a Chief Executive gets about one and a half times the remuneration of a Finance Director.

At 4 times his FD's remuneration, Mr Dewsall must be an exceptional performer. ;-O

[valhamos] 25/2/2016 16:46

I thought the Finance Director spending £19k buying shares at 12.5p last month was reasonably encouraging.

[aimingupward2] 25/2/2016 15:34

Well, some person(s) is/are buying today, so presumably they are confident of at least some improvement in the share price and don't think it's going bust. What might they know that the rest of us don't, I wonder?

[garbetklb] 25/2/2016 14:37

I'm afraid I'd be v surprised if this ends well - plenty of things that could be the final straw. Some of the areas I'd want to get a lot more comfort on :
- reserves
- ATE book
- Italian book
- the other current business
- capital & regulatory position
But I could be wrong.........
Good luck!

[battlebus2] 25/2/2016 13:38

Good to see you here GHF, still risks as you say but at todays price, who knows??