Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 29/5/2015 13:25

I've got those blinkers on again so i've added...............it is possible they will see it through in which case these are cheap... high risk......

[adyfc] 29/5/2015 12:57

Give it a few days and Dewsall will be in with a buy to try and steady the ship no doubt.

[battlebus2] 29/5/2015 12:55

Playful stop selling your destroying any hopes i have left for my holding... :))

[luckymouse] 29/5/2015 11:17

Well - I thought a chance it might btm out too but looks like not - they haven't been v forthright about the reserving dirty laundry

ALNC Gable Stung By Reserving Gap As Insurer Swings To Loss

[playful] 29/5/2015 11:09

I am reducing too as I clearly did not understand this business correctly and the fact they have had a run in with the DWP does not inspire confidence.

[scaramanga1906] 29/5/2015 10:45

I decided to bail for now. Thought it might have been bottoming yesterday but I was wrong so not going to let a small loss turn into a big one. Good luck all.

[battlebus2] 29/5/2015 10:39

Well i'm still here losing pounds in more ways than one, had to tie my hands behind my back :))

[diku] 29/5/2015 08:30

Hope soooooooooo....

[luckymouse] 29/5/2015 08:29

Blimey - so 20p then

[shakyhands] 29/5/2015 08:24

If you don't come clean with the bad news,you quickly lose credibility and people imagine the worst.

[tsmith2] 29/5/2015 07:32

lack of confidence in management; not telling market of material claim while someone new is obvious from graph

[dendria] 29/5/2015 07:31

Out this morning at a small loss. Just when you think that chart can't get any worse - it just does.

[billy_liar] 29/5/2015 07:28

Looks like everyone is bailing.

Hard to blame them if you can't trust the management to operate with your best interests at heart as an investor.

Caveat emptor.

[francoismyname] 29/5/2015 05:31

Still maintain there is great value at this level.

There are a million & 1 companies out there not earning a penny on aim whose stock price is all built on potential. It's good to have small stocks like gah who are only valued at £40m who actually have decent cash, decent turnover and I stroly believe in 2015 will earn a very good profit.

I beg to differ with a few of you that Gable will have an extremely good 2015.

[garbetklb] 28/5/2015 23:35

Hi Topvest

Good post. Couple of comments :

They have been growing quickly in long tail classes. As there is a significant delay before claims are paid, the cash being paid out this year relates to business written several years ago. One of the few definite statements I will make is that claim payments will rise. Simply because they lag the premium written by x years and the premium written has increased sharply.

They appear to be be carrying quite high retentions under their reinsurance - more volatility. Good if things run well, bad if they don't.

Premium growth is v easy - undercut the next cheapest guy. Think how price sensitive you are when you go to Moneysupermarket/Confused/Go Compare. Insurance is v difficult - nobody actually wants to buy your product! From an underlying perspective, I'd be a lot happier investing in a slow growing insurer than a fast growing one. BUT, my style is buy & hold.

Hopefully my posts have been interesting. And hopefully, I'll learn from other people on here when looking at shares where they have some background knowledge.

Good luck to all.

[hydrus] 28/5/2015 22:46

I do get the irony of my last sentence in the first post btw, apologies!

[hydrus] 28/5/2015 22:45

I bought in yesterday thinking the long term share price slide was related to an institutional seller whom might be selling for reasons nowt to do with GAH. I'm a bit of an instinct investor and I immediately sold for a 12% loss first thing this morning upon opening as I was extremely concerned by both the results and the sentiment in relation to what management thought was significant going forward. Essentially no discussion about how to mitigate risks of 'exceptional' one off (or two off based on last year) events and all about how to grow top line. Felt reckless to me. Some extremely good posts on here so wise to take heed.

[hydrus] 28/5/2015 22:39

Look at Garbetklb post:'This is what GAH are topping up this year (£6.3m) and next year (£7.5m) - so I would consider the past results have been overstated by these amounts - £13.8m.From a quick glance at Stockopedia, results 2008-2013 come to £16.25m'I am not sure there is any thing else that needs saying here.

[ramridge] 28/5/2015 20:44

I no longer have a skin in the game, so signing out. Good luck to all of you who are invested.

[saucepan] 28/5/2015 20:02

francoismyname: if you really believe that after reading the phenomenal expert analysis shared on this thread in good faith today, then good luck to you. I think you will need it, but it takes bulls and bears to make a market.

[francoismyname] 28/5/2015 19:45

Company in good shape.

Think 2015 will be a massive year.

[battlebus2] 28/5/2015 19:08

Guys can you lay off lol salt in wounds comes to mind.

[ramridge] 28/5/2015 18:49

Garbetklb -
You are indeed right, I checked their website and they are regulated by the Financial Market Authority in Liechtenstein. Which actually is more alarming. Let me explain.

Insurance companies regulated by the FCA (FSA previously) have been forced over the past 4 to 5 years through the ICAS regime to up their solvency and capital position closer to the intended Solvency II standards. The idea being that when SII becomes effective, then the step up to SII standards would be minimal.

So it would appear that Gable have not upped their game over the years and now the step up to the SII standards (which is by the way an EU regulation they have to comply with) is much harder than for companies regulated by the FCA. This may also explain how their current solvency ratio has been allowed to drop to 108%.

A can of worms if you ask me.