Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[adyfc2] 11/2/2015 19:28

sorry meant £2 by xmas . Hello der man

[winsome147] 11/2/2015 19:03

If management meet expectations, sign more business and also introduce a decent dividend then we may well see 100p by Xmas. I am hoping the first two of these are probable but the prospect of a div not more than 50/50. Just my opinion. Also depends on the sentiment for Aim shares in general improving

[adyfc] 11/2/2015 18:10

Don't worry it'll be £1 by xmas.

[winsome147] 11/2/2015 16:17

Fair points Saucepan but equally GAH are duty bound under AIM rules to disclose any adverse info to investors.

Some of my holdings often yoyo. Like Bovis Homes which just recently dropped 20% since December, only to recover to the same level this week and with no real reason for the drop. It is fair to say Market Makers need volatility to create volume to create profits. They need little excuse to help volatility along its way.

I've held GAH for a few years and I'm breaking even so far. Fingers crossed we will be back in profit again soon.

[saucepan] 11/2/2015 15:55

I should perhaps also answer "why am I here"? I suspect there is a point when GAH will become oversold. It may already have reached that point. When I see evidence of GAH finding support, I will consider an opening trade as the bounce could be substantial. Having said that, I think it is more likely that the price will need to form a base before gathering strength for its recovery. Around 40p seems the most obvious level, now that 50p has failed. However, the obvious does not always pan out.

. . . and no advice intended in either of my posts :-)

[saucepan] 11/2/2015 15:50

I certainly see no point in selling because the share price is falling because there is no reason for it falling other than lack of newsflow and the fact that AIM shares are taking a battering in general.

It is my investment experience that significant share price movement often precedes the release of news. City insiders and other privileged individuals get wind of what is happening before private investors. This is also an observation that investment gurus themselves tend to corroborate.

Coincidentally, if I was to cite an example of this, I would probably choose what happened to Gable: i.e. the "significant property fire" that was only reported to the public in 11 September 2014 results. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that others knew of the fire when it happened or shortly thereafter: hence the share price weakness that was not understood by private investors at the time.

These observations are made in a spirit of constructive discussion and to help share investment experience; not to rub anyone up the wrong way.

[winsome147] 11/2/2015 15:39

I wouldn't advise anyone to sell or buy. As I said in an earlier post, I'll wait to read the next update from GAH. And most BB posts in general are BS. I certainly see no point in selling because the share price is falling because there is no reason for it falling other than lack of newsflow and the fact that AIM shares are taking a battering in general.

I'm no insurance expert but I'm encouraged by the fact that Warren Buffett is comfortable doing business with them, either directly or indirectly.

Looks like Mr Market is trying to stimulate interest but so far few are buying. This is when the likes of Buffett love Mr Market.

[garbetklb] 11/2/2015 14:26

Thanks Saucepan & PJ1

Someone holding a short position and trying to push a price down is v unwelcome, as are obvious rampers!

But less blatant are enthusiastic holders seeking confirmation of their decisions, from other enthusiastic holders...... Something I suspect we've all done (certainly I have) - and to our cost.

Garbetklb

[pj 1] 11/2/2015 14:17

No where does it state you have to hold a share to post on a BB, any informed comment is welcome in my book

[saucepan] 11/2/2015 14:17

Garbetklb: interesting insights - thanks for sharing. Like you, that is when I think bulletin boards are at their best.

[luckymouse] 11/2/2015 14:15

Think it might bottom a around 41-42 - but they really need to put out a bloody RNS allaying pi doubts I would have thought!

[garbetklb] 11/2/2015 13:39

Hi Winsome

Gable came up in conversation with a friend and, as I have a background in insurance for my sins, I put my thoughts down on paper. I've learned a lot from some people on bulletin boards; maybe someone will think they have learned a bit from my post?

Personally, I'm much more interested in views that differ from mine than views that agree with me - I may learn something I didn't know.

I've no idea if Gable's shares are going to go up, down or sideways but, having met Billy Dewsell, I'm not interested in investing, regardless of price.

To get an idea of how important reserves are, have a read around the demise of Independent Insurance - I knew a lot of the people there very well as Mike Bright gave me my first insurance job. (I'm definitely NOT suggesting that Gable has the same issues).

Garbetklb

[winsome147] 11/2/2015 13:31

ramridge, why on earth have you thrown in the towel? You are supposed to buy low and sell high, not the other way around.

I keep records of why I have sold shares in a company since year 2000. Nearly 85% of sales I have regretted (because the share price was substantially higher 12 months later) were sales I made on rumour or general market negativity or tree shakes. The one thing I have learned is to hold shares for as long as possible unless a company issues a profit warning that could have a long term effect. No other considerations should affect my judgement.

To quote the guy that GAH recently signed a 100m underwriting deal with "I generally ignore the guy next door who shouts over his fence every day how much his farm is worth'. Presumably if the shar prices hits 70p again you will buy in.

[bilboburgler] 11/2/2015 13:14

One off reserve would have hurt the CEO's holding and bonus perhaps??

[winsome147] 11/2/2015 13:13

Garbetklb,

If you have no interest at all in investing in GAH then why waste time writing about them on forums? There are thousands of companies I'm not interested in and I don't waste one second of my time thinking about them?

[luckymouse] 11/2/2015 12:49

www.barchart.com/snapopinion/stocks/GAH.LS

[fastbuck] 11/2/2015 11:31

Not with 25p of cash & 25p NBV, based on last reported figures

[adyfc] 11/2/2015 10:40

Looks like support in the 20p range and the way this babies heading we'll be there in no time.Fasten your seatbelts this is gonna get hairy.

[fastbuck] 11/2/2015 09:15

Competitors as listed in the Edison report have all seen a decline in their share prices in the last half of 2014 with companies talking about price competition, together with the continued low yield on cash. One exception was the one that received a taken-over.

That said all have seen their share prices start a recovery a few months back, Gable being the exception so company specific, maybe fear of not hitting the numbers, maybe an equity funding requirement to support higher cash holding levels required with the increased levels of business the company is writing.

I believe its being oversold on fear, on the chart.

I hope when the company does announce it will be solid numbers just a shame they need to keep putting extra reserves aside which is bringing down their EPS number. If they had made a one-time correction to their reserves rather than spreading the reserve uplift over 3 years we would be looking at 8p-10p earnings this year I guess!

[labatie] 11/2/2015 08:48

Out first thing this morning - not my finest hour this one.

[ramridge] 11/2/2015 08:40

I was holding on for months waiting for an upturn but finally threw in the towel yesterday. Largish loss. Doh.
I still can't figure out what is causing the drip drip constant fall.

[garbetklb] 10/2/2015 23:57

I'm with PJ1 - the very last thing a Buffett or Jain would be interested in is an insurer where there is concern over the reserving.

I'm not invested here and, having met Billy Dewsell in a professional capacity when Gable was being established, I have no interest whatsoever. Neither am I (or will I be) short.

A few thoughts :

The absolutely key thing to watch is the reserving - especially how individual underwriting years evolve over time. I'm not sure how easy it will be to see that - I've not read the annual report in depth. But, in a fast growing underwriter, if old (small) years have to be regularly topped up, you need to be able to get yourself very comfortable that the same isn't ultimately going to be needed for (much larger) more recent years. And, for some of the classes they write (eg Employers Liability), claims can take a VERY long time to finalise.

Beware of terms such as "specialist", "niche" etc. Yes, Gable may well have some niches, but much of the business is being competed over by plenty of other insurers. So will (and why will) Gable end up with results dramatically different from the market?

Why be regulated in Lichtenstein? It's not as if the regulator has a wide pool of similar companies to regulate.....
hxxp://register.fma-li.li/fileadmin/user_upload/dokumente/publikationen/Versicherungsunternehmen/de/Versicherungsunternehmen_mit_Sitz_im_FL_16.12.2014.pdf
At the time Gable were being established, there were a string of "UK" companies heading to Gibraltar - amongst them well known names such as Admiral, Saga (Acromas) & Zenith.
hxxp://www.fsc.gi/fsclists/insulist.aspx

If you get yourself comfortable with issues such as these, then Gable might prove to be a good investment.

Personally, I don't buy all this market maker manipulation - surely a good opportunity to sneak in & get some stock cheap? IF buyers & sellers were roughly matched. I'd be very interested to know who has been selling.

There have been other insurance company failings in recent memory - and reserving was normally the trigger.

Good luck.

[labatie] 10/2/2015 17:46

This dribble downward seems without end.

[pj 1] 09/2/2015 21:47

Id have thought the opposite and Buffet would run a mile. H elikes strong management he can relate and communicate with.

Is that GAH?