Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[winsome147] 09/2/2015 14:44

This is the sort of Insurance company Warren Buffett LOVES. If it had a bigger market cap he would be pouring over the financial statements right now. However he probably wouldn't commit to buying until the next set of results show that progress is continuing.

He would also say he doesn't give a damn what the share price is doing in the short or medium term, he would just buy more when the price was lower. I might if it stays low and the next update from Gable is positive.

If directors moan about the poor share price performance then they can easily fix it - announce an inaugural dividend and promise to grow it.

[saucepan] 09/2/2015 12:15

The very nasty downtrend shows no sign of abating. I must admit that I am surprised the 50p level did not stop the rot.

[aimingupward2] 08/2/2015 18:41

Ah! Own question answered. I see in today's press that Towergate's creditors are injecting a large amount of cash into the company and taking major share stakes. The chairman says "the agreement brings the very difficult last few months to an excellent conclusion. The company now has a highly committed shareholder base that has demonstrated it's strong belief in the potential of our business by the extent of their investment".

So, I presume no anxieties from Gable's point of view.

[aimingupward2] 08/2/2015 09:00

Towergate seem to be in financial difficulties. Does anyone know how does, or might, rub off Gable?

[fastbuck] 05/2/2015 21:18

For best estimates from the management I don't think you need to look beyond the paid research firm Edison, link to research on Gable's website.

Edison states that they identified a £15m reserve shortfall compared with best practise, they are looking to cover that shortfall by the end of 2015 after reserving £4.2m LY, £2.4m H1 2014 with estimates for H2 of £2.6m and another £5m in 2015. This they believe will close the reserve shortfall; worth noting all current policies are reserved based on best practise.

Edison despite this are looking for EPS of 5.96p and 8.18p in 2015.

That makes three years of lower reported profits than would otherwise be reported backing up the managements assertion that underlying earnings are a better gauge of where the company is.

Warning point - Edison says 'the company has stated that as a result of anticipated growth it is reviewing options to increase solvency capital to maintain a strong regulatory capital base. This does not necessarily mean a capital increase; it could, for instance, mean an extension of Gable Holdings’ reinsurance arrangements'.

[look alive] 05/2/2015 14:41

Numis report due next week apparently.

[the shuffle man] 05/2/2015 14:21

Ady you taking the micky LOL

Still think £1 by xmas, not sure what year though !

[adyfc] 05/2/2015 14:16

£1 by xmas.

[mw16] 05/2/2015 13:12

Going into meltdown

[look alive] 03/2/2015 13:30

New Brokers Numis don't seem to have produced any research yet .

[willessa] 03/2/2015 13:11

I don't quite get the half year figures either.

At 2013 y/e there was a huge amount of unearned premium which I would expect to be earned in 1st half but the unearned is still high. The gross premiums are surprisingly small too when you add up all the contracts at £10m per year (claimed).

So am not surprised with the share price as it's simply not adding up. Having said that and ignoring their "provision supplement" and use basic diluted eps of 4.99p then at 50p it represents reasonable value whilst waiting for the numbers to unravel.

Am thinking of adding here.

[oldnotbold] 03/2/2015 08:51

Dear All, I was just looking over the half-year results, and the longer I read them, the less clear it became as to whether Gable had been overstating previous earnings (i.e. requiring the additional provisioning they took in H2 2013 and H1 2014)? If it is a one-off, then we should see a very strong profit recovery in H2 2014. If not, then the company will probably produce full year EPS of about 3.5p, which leaves it fair-ish value. The growth profile is good, but the overhang of a capital raising is concerning. Your thoughts? ONB

[mw16] 03/2/2015 07:29

A lot of stagnation here. No news, no new business etcEerily quiet for a company who is traditionally not...I wonder is there minds elsewhere, deep in negotiation?

[aimingupward2] 31/1/2015 18:23

Dire cons - I don't think the market does 'value' AIM companies very often, nor do marketeers 'decide where the share price should belong'. A lot of it is happenstance. The share price is where it is as a result of the buying and selling which has gone on and much of this will have taken place as a reflection of the perceived short term performance and prospects of the share price. Selling, very often, is just because better short term prospects are seen elsewhere. These traders are not making any attempt to value the company.

I see good prospects here and have a holding; I'm willing to be a bit patient. What I wouldn't want to do is sell out near the bottom only to learn afterwards that the share price recovers strongly and I've missed it. It's happened to me before and it's even more frustrating than being patient and hoding on. The only proviso is that one has researched the company and can feel confident that it will prosper.

P.S. No 'short' positions are reported as being held on GAH, so the company is not under attack by (professional/institutional) short sellers.

[dire cons] 27/1/2015 18:45

Thanks to all for responding. I was trying to stimulate some discussion as to why we seem to be stuck in an ever deepening rut. Who knows how the markets value companies?

Sometimes it seems that it doesn't matter how much analysis you throw at situation, the marketeers will decide where the share price should belong.

I suppose all will come out in the wash.

Best of luck to holders.

[luckymouse] 24/1/2015 14:57

You could rebase the stk against the ccy pair and see if correlated

[nfs] 24/1/2015 14:18

Surely euros earnings mean less Gbp for UK investors

[luckymouse] 24/1/2015 13:55

My tuppence worth:

Lots of speculation/theory as to the weakness here - me included in the past

Its completely ignoring the rally in the Life sector
AIM index is on its knees - doesn't help
Sector is strong - so this is stock specific
M&A rumour & dir buying hardly moved it - unusual
New broker is quiet - unusual - not even a 'starts' ?
Still hasn't capitulated fully to mid/late 40s so in limbo technically
Rumours around Euro revs, CHF, reserves, fwd funding all a bit unaddressed - again in a bit of sentiment limbo - could do with a well crafted RNS (where is it?)
Largest swiss holder fund doesn't appear to be lightening (very delayed data in the FT.com) so it appears not that despite my previous concerns
EU QE is creating lovely strong rallys elsewhere too tempting to ignore for most
No meaningful short selling visible

So basically - theres a trust issue unaddressed & a technical issue unaddressed.
When either/both of those are sorted - it should fly - until then looks like it will languish for a bit.

All imho - happy for counter opinions
LM

www.barchart.com/snapopinion/stocks/GAH.LS
www.4-traders.com/GABLE-HOLDINGS-INC-4005031/revisions/
www.4-traders.com/EURO--BRITISH-POUND-EUR-4593/

PS on a positive note a guy on another board said the rerating of the Swiss franc may have helped GAH reserves - don't know if that's true but certainly an interesting point

[rogash] 24/1/2015 09:51

There is very little affect of the euro on Gable.

[adyfc] 23/1/2015 17:03

A lot of Gables earnings are in euros.

[the shuffle man] 23/1/2015 17:03

I don't buy the story that the MMS will collude. I think in these markets they try to run a flat book and therefore only a small number of trades will move the price up or down. There seems to have been a small drip of sells with the odd big one showing up that has dropped the price since that article came out alluding to a potential takeover.

I would normally say that this weakness could mean that something is not right but in these thin markets this may not be the case and I am hoping as a holder that it isn't.

Disappointed that the new broker hasn't yet brought out a note and I hope this will be coming soon.

We need something to get these going again.

Small Cap market very dull and boring at the moment.

[saucepan] 23/1/2015 16:43

Interesting speculation. The only observation I would make is that the share price behaving as it is would seem to suggest something is not right. I am glad I am watching from the sidelines.

[dire cons] 23/1/2015 16:02

Call me cynical, but I reckon;

1 MM's are working in concert to erode the share price (and therefore the market cap) on behalf of a potential bargain hunter.

2 As above, but the Heavily Invested management are looking to take it private.

3 There's bad news on revenues/currency etc or a hidden claim for which they're still being persecuted.

All the abovementioned is an opinion only, and only trying to make sense of the mystifying decline in the share price

Anyone?

[germanicus] 17/1/2015 15:09

A bit of buying interest there for a change Friday.

GLA

G

[billy_liar] 12/1/2015 10:12

Added a few more today as seem significantly undervalued for a growth company.