Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[valhamos] 16/10/2014 13:45

I'm adding at these levels. I thought it was cheap at the time of the results - as did the directors, buying at 70p to 75p. Hard to refuse now when it is a lot cheaper. With strong growth expected (eps 2015 7.8p 2016 12.7) a bit of short-term turbulence is not a concern imo.

[gohilster] 16/10/2014 13:17

Hope so for holders. At 40 odd pence, I'm most certainly a buyer again!

[the shuffle man] 16/10/2014 10:42

Looks like capitulation to me. Hopefully will find a floor now.

[luckymouse] 16/10/2014 10:38

There was buying within the 45.5-52.5 range previously - I know some traders & institutions use that system to set limit orders

Theres also a risk it will d.top to 41 if this is a neckline here - depends on the overall mkt sentiment.

Looking at the fibonaccis I would say 45.5 is the more likely scenario

[the shuffle man] 16/10/2014 10:27

Adyfc, yes but not sure which year LOL

[adyfc] 16/10/2014 10:10

Is the £1 by Christmas still on.

[the shuffle man] 16/10/2014 10:10

There is a buyers strike at the moment. Most stocks I hold have been sold down very sharply and I'm sure if the volatility continues they will get cheaper. I haven't bought on margin so can continue holding.

I have never been good at trying to pick a top, sell and then come back in cheaper.

I just hold unless I think the fundamentals have changed. Has done me well in the past.

Don't think anything has changed here. GAH is not a cyclical stock and therefore I am continuing to hold in the belief this will recover in time.

Dewsall was buying at much higher levels not that long ago.

[pj 1] 16/10/2014 09:49

Most stocks I look at are 'oversold' , have been for 2 weeks or so.

Does not stop them becoming more oversold though. Patience required imo

[gohilster] 16/10/2014 09:42

Agree TSM. Even at these levels, looks well oversold to me too. But don't want to see a loss turn into a bigger loss. Even when the market rises, GAH falls. I'll watching closely for when it will inevitably turn as the price action has become ridiculous.

[the shuffle man] 16/10/2014 09:36

I think people are taking profits where they still have them to pay for the losses elsewhere. Been low volume here but in these markets the MMs don't wont to hold anything so just mark the price down.

GAH look well oversold at these levels (60p).

PE of 7.7x on next years earnings. Mkt cap of £81m with net cash of £33m.

Another point to note is that GAH have a licence to trade across the whole of Europe and have been building up a successful business. To try and replicate this from scratch would be extremely difficult and therefore I believe would command a premium which is also not reflected in the price.

I am just sitting back and holding with my tin hat on.

Fundamentals will eventually come through and these look too cheap.

[gohilster] 16/10/2014 09:19

Sadly I've sold out. Growth of the business is set to be strong and I'm still bullish of the long term prospects. But a drop below 60p (1 year support) was the tipping point for me. Next support looks in the mid 40's. If it gets their this will be way oversold and I'll consider a re-buy. If you're a longer term holder, then best of luck.

[luckymouse] 10/10/2014 18:12

Yes ive seen that too - the S&P500 in particular has been on a v.long run - artificially supported by the big US hedgies who can borrow squillions on the repo mkts for nought and get a return on the S&P - a bond traders system originally - pay 1 make 10 - except that its leveraged into outer space & cant last forever.
Japanese chartists have a special name for when a run lasts too long (which ive forgotten) - needless to say the name implies it doesn't have a happy ending - unless you are short I guess. Looking at the dow its obviously manipulated - some of those drive ups don't look natural. I wonder if a lot of people don't realise.

The frightening thing for me is if the algos and big players decide to switch the squillions pointing south. With the jet engine power they have they could smash it right down just so they can get even richer whilst trashing the rest of us - including economies!

[the shuffle man] 10/10/2014 17:45

Lucky

Lets hope we don't have to wait too much longer.

I did read somewhere that we had gone the longest period in many years without having a 10% correction. We are nearly there on the FTSE. If its just a correction then that its healthy. I don't think its the start of a bear market yet. Low interest rates seem set to stay for a while, its only when they are perceived to be going up that I think markets will really struggle.

Higher interest rates may be good for GAH as they would start to make a return on all the cash reserves they are holding !

[luckymouse] 10/10/2014 17:11

Shuffle - yes if you look at the aim100s behaviour it swings violently from year to year - the broad mkt has broken some key supports so it might be a good exercise to look back at aim in yrs gone by to see what happens. Investors rotated out of aim into big caps since march this yr - so as big caps come off now and that starts to become too painful at what point in the cycle will they rotate back into small caps...?

[luckymouse] 10/10/2014 17:03

Ramridge - sure but you have to bring your own saucepan! :)

Looking around the boards I suspect quite a few have been deployed

[ramridge] 10/10/2014 14:33

Any room for me, LuckyMouse?

[luckymouse] 10/10/2014 14:31

Good to get some debate - im currently hiding under the stairs with a saucepan on my head

[ramridge] 10/10/2014 12:37

Hi Shuffle Man -

Not sure where you got your data. Using Google Finance and comparing GAH with the AIM All-Share Index I get the following:

5 days AIM -4% GAH -10%
1 mth AIM -9% GAH -20%
3 mths AIM -9% GAH -22%

gohilster - What I am not clear about is the recognition of the gross claim in the accounts and the reinsured amount claimed back. Whether they happen in different accounting periods. This will impact 2014 profit and eps figures.

[gohilster] 10/10/2014 11:45

TSM: voice of experience. If the fundamentals are still strong, than makes no difference when you take a medium to long term view. Everything else is just noise.

[gohilster] 10/10/2014 11:41

Indeed AIM is getting battered in general, so not GAH specific. As a rule, unless some really bad news appear, I'm holding because the markets can be irrational and the baby can be thrown out with the bath water. I don't see anything massively detrimental in the results to worry me. Yes they had a fire claim, but that happens in insurance! It's very rare and the company is strong enough to take it. In fact, many are forgetting on the same day as the results they announced approx. £100m worth of business over 3 years. That's huge for a company with around the the same market cap!

Ramridge; the company was quite clear in what it said about the fire claim being 80% recoverable, hence why I think the constant talk down is nothing more than a scare tactic. I have looked at previous big share purchases by the CEO and they all seem well timed as the business has gone from strength to strength. He has been buying since 15.75p and has not sold a single share yet. He is committed and astute which gives me a lot of confidence.

[the shuffle man] 10/10/2014 11:29

Ram

Its not a disproportionate sell off. The AIM index is off 25%.

When markets are like this it only takes a few people to sell and the MMs just drive the price down. This has got nothing to do with fundamentals IMO.

Unfortunately I have loads of small caps in a similar situation. Seen this before. All one can do is sit it out. Good companies will always come back.

GLA

[ramridge] 10/10/2014 10:55

Hi gohilster - If what you say is correct and refers to the same fire accident, then that's a much rosier picture. Maybe the current more than proportionate sell-off could be put down to the fear factor times 2!

[pj 1] 10/10/2014 10:52

Gable itself will be underwritten against its own claim related losses (or should be!!!).
Having worked as a supplier to the Insurance Industry I expect it could take up to 2 years (maybe longer) for this large reported claim to be settled, it could even take 5 years.

So an obvious effect on cashflow.

Plus, this is highlighting the risks within the industry, especially in this Market.

Overall though GAH has not fallen recently any more then other stocks I hold.

AIM has been hammered

[the shuffle man] 10/10/2014 10:45

Markets are terrible at the moment with small caps getting hammered. All my shares held in a SIPP where I have at a minimum 10 years before I can touch.

GAH IMO is a good investment so should bounce back once the market settles again.

If I wasn't fully invested I would be adding more at these levels.

Recent director buys were at much higher levels.