Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[gohilster] 10/10/2014 10:42

Thanks ramridge for your input. I understand 80% of the claim is recoverable from reinsurance, so that means if £2m has been attributed the fire, its only actually cost GAH £400k?

"In addition, during the period the Company received a single individually significant property fire claim 80% of which was recovered against reinsurance policies."

[pyemckay] 10/10/2014 10:11

gohilster, my point was about downgrades and not eps growth as you illustrated. Eps was forecast at 9p earlier this year and has eroded to 6p on digital look.

[ramridge] 10/10/2014 10:02

GAH’s share price has dropped near 9% over the last week and as I write has dropped a further 5.5% today, to 60.5p. This is more than the current market sell-off. So what’s the deal? Well, here is my tuppence after a bit of research.

The magazine Shares on Oct 2nd reported:
“ Investors are braced for short-term disappointment. Gable has received a claim for a large fire in France, which has been named as a factor in FinnCap wiping £2 million from its pre-tax profit forecasts this year, which it now expects to be £8 million, up from £7.2 million in 2013.”
That means for 2014 forecast profit after tax comes to roughly £6.5m; and forecast eps 4.8p. To maintain a multiple of 12 makes the forecast share price = 12*4.8 = 57.6. Let’s say a range of 57p – 60p. (Please do your own research for the calcs).

My question is why wasn’t there an RNS about this news. The impact is very material to the company’s financial performance and results. Instead the only reference I could find is a throwaway remark on page 9 of a financial magazine. Not good enough.
Happy to be corrected.
ps. To balance the picture, Shares were bullish about long term prospects especially after taking into account the Norwegian deal.

[pyemckay] 10/10/2014 09:21

eps downgrade for this year and next according to digital look broker forecasts. I expect a placing before december too.

[gohilster] 10/10/2014 09:11

Some fair points being made, but the fall is way overdone imo. The company is growing and winning new substantial business (recently Norway c£15m, iprism c100m, etc which will add to profits), has cash, strong director buying in the last month totalling around £170k, and they are very bullish about their future with no hints of their progress slowing any time soon. Their also look like an attractive bid target too.

Yes I agree they should have been more transparent re the fire situation, but anyone would think they put out a profit warning the way the share price is behaving. These have been a long term winner for me and unless they say the story has changed, I remain a holder. Bear in mind, the share price has risen on average 60% per annum for the last 4 years. That's no easy feat and shows the management know their stuff. I'm still confident.

[liarspoker] 10/10/2014 06:24

EPS still grew if you annualise provisions however the two big questions I have for Gable are:

1) How will they expand their balance sheet which I've mentioned numerous times but which most people seem to ignore.

Maybe the falling share price is just the market anticipating dilution.

2) Provision cover for the next 6 months. If it's inline then ok, if it's excessive then that it obviously not good.

[gohilster] 09/10/2014 18:02

Can you summarise LuckyMouse? Couldn't really understand the graphs! Thanks.

[luckymouse] 09/10/2014 13:50

OK - there it is - knew I wasn't imagining it - slightly hidden by one of the brokers acting defensively:

www.4-traders.com/GABLE-HOLDINGS-INC-4005031/revisions/

[luckymouse] 09/10/2014 00:31

hxxp://sd.uploads.im/C3Grf.jpg

[pj 1] 08/10/2014 22:09

Something is not right here.......But I wish I could put my finger on it, but I cannot........ perplexed :-//

[luckymouse] 29/9/2014 17:46

"a walk in the garden" - the voice of experience :)

[bilboburgler] 29/9/2014 17:30

"Doesn't it depend if you are momentum trading or value investing?" Only if you think the two different activities. If you combine sector movement with value investing then you need to look at two things, general sector movements, company movements relative to the sector and value investing before you look at timing.

There are those who claim timing is impossible but, a share which naturally bounces around a bit needs to be bought near the bottom of the bounce not at the top.

Lucky, the only good thing about an opening spread is it is a harbinger of a movement. As you say it can be a false move, so always test the movment by false orders and, if need be, a walk in the garden. :-) There will always be another buying op along in a minute.

[dasv] 29/9/2014 15:26

Doesn't it depend if you are momentum trading or value investing?

[luckymouse] 29/9/2014 14:52

That's pretty negative from me so if anyone wants to wade in with the opposite argument please shoot back - it could simply be stock overhang etc

[luckymouse] 29/9/2014 14:42

Im looking at:
a) the share price - is going the opposite way to the sector
b) is tracking the aim index down - used to ignore the index so new behaviour
c) the main holder Helium Special Situations is very overweight and has been lightening in the RNS history
d) todays B/S ratio -3.69 (although fully accept 1day B/S has little meaning)
Vol Sold 123,958
Vol Bought 33,580
e) with new biz announcement should really be gently lifting
f) the trend hasn't reversed convincingly (not yet anyway)
www.barchart.com/snapopinion/stocks/GAH.LS
g) non of the brokers acknowledged the drop in EPS even though I calced a 10p drop in target. Its a well oiled PR machine but share price may suggest that some are reviewing

So im reading the tealeaves and tells mainly - of course it could just be the lousy market also - or MMs games - no problem with counter opinions

LM

Edit: a static target from supportive brks doesn't exclude a six mth push back or silent rollover to hit it

[gohilster] 29/9/2014 11:54

How have you come to that opinion please Lucky Mouse?

[luckymouse] 29/9/2014 09:48

A major holder is reducing imo

[gohilster] 26/9/2014 09:41

Agreed T S M.

[the shuffle man] 26/9/2014 08:06

Some interesting large trades yesterday. If there was a large seller out there hopefully now cleared and it won't take much to get these back into the 80,s.

[playful] 25/9/2014 18:31

I was happy to increase my holding on the back of today's news!

[gohilster] 25/9/2014 17:46

All good stuff. Suspect further news flow to support the share price Business is growing and strong. Happy holder.