Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[the shuffle man] 14/9/2014 18:56

I think longer term this is prime for a takeover at a price over £1 which is why Dewsal keeps topping up.

[aimingupward2] 14/9/2014 18:19

It's 2014 already. I think you just may have missed it !

[pyemckay] 14/9/2014 18:04

Clearly a token guesture purchase.I intend to rebuy in the late sixties for the long term

[aimingupward2] 14/9/2014 17:43

Well, maybe Saucepan; we can't know. But at 100,000 shares it's not exactly pocket money (is it?) even for a wealthy man - and it's twice as many as he bought early in June at 82p. I doubt if he was investing investing pocket money,then, to shore up sentiment. Presumably then, as now, he knows perfectly well that good progress and good results lie ahead.

[saucepan] 14/9/2014 16:20

FWIW, I side with eeza here. For someone like Dewsall the amount of buying was only pocket money. I saw it more as a symbolic purchase in the hope it would shore up sentiment.

[aimingupward2] 14/9/2014 15:52

"But looked more like a panic reaction to the share price slump, after they realised they'd shot themselves thro both feet."

No, it doesn't. It's directors, who know full well that the prospects for company are very rosy, taking an opportunity to add to their holdings.

[eeza] 14/9/2014 13:18

But looked more like a panic reaction to the share price slump, after they realised they'd shot themselves thro both feet.

Unfortunately.

[nfs] 13/9/2014 21:39

Handy director buying sending a message

[eeza] 13/9/2014 08:43

Retained their 'Buy' on Sept 11.

11 Sep 14 Gable Holdings Inc Panmure Gordon Buy 74.25 105.00 105.00 Retains

Also FinnCap has Buy note

"A number of other firms have also recently commented on GAH. Analysts at FinnCap reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Gable Holdings in a research note on Thursday."

[labatie] 13/9/2014 07:48

I see that Panmure have made some comments, reported by the Alliance News service.

Does anyone take that?

[labatie] 12/9/2014 13:17

I don't know either way. It may simply have filtered out through the insurance market.

[luckymouse] 12/9/2014 11:37

I agree - insurance is insurance after all - but it appears from afar that they tipped off the ii's & left the pi's to hang out to dry. Now they are scrambling.
That's a sudden change in landscape.

[saucepan] 12/9/2014 11:30

noted, labatie; thanks, and well put in my view.

[olded] 12/9/2014 11:16

30k share buy:

[labatie] 12/9/2014 07:54

Saucepan

I agree re the placing of the not-so-good news within the RNS.

GAH is plainly steaming along, and attracting some good names as partners. Shareholders know this. However the co is in insurance, where the idea is that they will pay out for losses from time to time. Sometimes the loss will be sizeable. So why semi-bury it?

From what they said, they seem to have done very well by their customer in the speed with which the claim was handled. If they'd actually made a prior announcement about the fire - events have shown it was plainly material - they could have made a virtue out of a negative event by simultaneously highlighting the exemplary service they appear to have given.

That could have won them some important Brownie points among potential clients and potential partners, and perhaps should be made a feature in the Annual Report.

Speedy service in payment of losses is not something the insurance business is especially noted for, after all.

GAH could have been much cleverer here I feel, and look to have been poorly advised on presentation.

[pjhutchy] 11/9/2014 21:49

The company is not on a high valuation it's on a low valuation especially for the outstanding growth rate.

[pjhutchy] 11/9/2014 21:48

I think people are expecting to much and maybe the impossible. You would think that the company's performance would please shareholders. I am pleased with the results and will be adding more along with the directors.

[this_is_me] 11/9/2014 21:06

It has been a 'Sell on the news' day for the short termers. I bought mine for less than 19p three years ago and I expect them to be a lot higher in another three years.

[saucepan] 11/9/2014 20:22

LuckyMouse - post 2422.

. . . Im a big fan of GAH but they misled by not doing a media release about the results and forecast changing fire - II's tipped off in advance?

I think you make a good point.

I also feel there was something not quite noble (obfuscatory?) about the way the disappointing elements of today's RNS were omitted from the headlines, but buried lower down, even de-emphasised.

I suspect that is why some people bought in at the open, before studying the detail.

I do think GAH will recover and do well. However, there are sufficient other stocks out there that will do at least as well, if not better, and without some possible gremlins and rather more transparency. That, in part, is why I have moved on.

[liarspoker] 11/9/2014 19:56

Yes, but future growth comes down to expanding the balance sheet which everyone on here seems to be ignoring. :-)

[valhamos] 11/9/2014 19:13

Thanks for all the replies - I will do some more work on this company tomorrow.

As regards H2 weighting I should have said gross earned (rather than written) premium - looking at these since beginning of 2012 the growth from H1 to H2 is a lot higher than from H2 to the following year H1, but I guess there must be some winter seasonality as suggested.

Even the 77% combined ratio in these results is a lot better than the bigger players. Assuming it can avoid the temptation to write low margin business for growth's sake, the key issue is can Gable continue to grow for a while yet. The signs from today's announcements look promising.

[puku] 11/9/2014 18:39

Convinced that the drop wouldn't last, topped up at 74.5 p, happy see a bit of a recovery towards the end of the day. Equally convinced it will top 80 p again soon IMHO

[luckymouse] 11/9/2014 18:23

I don't analyse anything - just trade all day & all night long - trade trade trade - no need to analyse when all you do is trade
(Im a big fan of GAH but they misled by not doing a media release about the results and forecast changing fire - II's tipped off in advance?)
The technical floor is 70.79
3yr %oversold boundary is currently 65.13 & falling
100W MA is 63.85 & rising - I wonder where they will meet?

Analyse that

[pj 1] 11/9/2014 18:18

My average hold is over 2 years.

However, it is very easy to hold a falling share in a positive portfolio.

Recently I have had 4 major holdings going South at the same time, I have held them and added to 2. GAH reaction today made me not want to risk it being 5 (solely price action not fundamentals). I am not saying it is right or wrong, I can always buy back in.

The co hasn't always been squeeky clean with its reporting has it (or via its advisors)

If I miss 10% on a cheap share so be it

Good luck all those sticking with it, no doubt I will be back.