Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[yankhanson] 20/9/2023 21:33

"£70m run-rate from old games / expansion packs / DLC." mortal1ty, you're smart enough to know run rate is not £ but %.

"I'm sure they can keep this ticking along." Then I'm sure you haven't watched the recent investors' presentation. The run rate is 80% p.a. delivering only £60m. One reason being the "post-launch nurturing strategy" was totally absent from F1 Manager.

"You would think Warhammer and F1 manager 2023 should make £10-£30m." Only if you're blind to the fact F1 Manager 2023 earnings are down 80% v. 2022, and Warhammer's player feedback and pre-orders indicate a sure flop.

And even if you're right, and Warhammer is the huge earner Frontier is forecasting, your median is a still 25% shortfall on the board's forecast of £108m.

"I stated that net-cash would be flat ex-acquisitions" Ex-acquisitions cash is fairytale. You can't return an acquisition for refund. The acquisition cost was cash spent, whatever you label it.

Either way, you have to agree it is idiocy for a board that should be cutting down the 900 staff instead spending 10% of annual earnings on purchasing 18 more staff, piling in to a £26m loss. Suicidal idiocy, in fact.

[mortal1ty] 20/9/2023 10:34

"Frontier's post-launch nurturing strategy delivered another strong performance in FY23, with games released before the start of the financial year delivering 72% of the total revenue in the period."

Indicates a c. £70m run-rate from old games / expansion packs / DLC. I'm sure they can keep this ticking along. You would think Warhammer and F1 manager 2023 should make £10-£30m. I mean F1 2022 was pretty poorly received and as you say, that made £21m.

I stated that net-cash would be flat ex-acquisitions (which it was). You implied it would have plummeted. "42m cash was last period, the have spent £50m since then, you do the math" - to paraphrase.

[yankhanson] 20/9/2023 01:03

mortal1ty, that was then, this is now, and things have changed majorly.

last year was £104m on four new game releases including F1 Manager @ £21m.

This year they are down to one, plus F1 Manager @ £3m to £4m, and the other past titles earnings down to 80% going by the latest investors' video.

So FDEV's forecasted UP to £108m this year just ain't going to happen.

And no I didn't tell you cash would be £10m.

[sbb1x] 19/9/2023 16:28

Price action here is just one way.Wait for trend to change

[mortal1ty] 19/9/2023 13:49

ahh common Yank. They did £100m this year in a fairly quiet year. I remember a while ago you told me they would have £10m cash by now as well and in fact it was £28m I think. Taking it to the extreme with ya numbers.

[yankhanson] 19/9/2023 00:44

FY24 you mean? How do you get such a high figure? F1 Manager 2023 earnings are headed for only about 15% of the forecast £22m. Of the older titles, only one is in Steam top #250 - the four-year-old declining Planet Zoo.

As for Warhammer, the overwhelmingly negative response on its own Steam forum suggests it will be lucky to earn 10-20% of the forecast £27m.

[cirlbunting1] 18/9/2023 21:10

Ive got forecasted revenues for next year between 55-70m - excluding warhammer.

[mortal1ty] 18/9/2023 16:31

£250k roughly in shares traded today. Down 5%. Given a recovery is a way off, the shares need to drop to a highly distressed level to entice enough volume to let the institutional bag holders out... and some deep value investors in.

TinyBuild and devolver digital got almost down to net-cash before staging a recovery into high volume. 0.5x sales here? still 35% to go.

[mortal1ty] 18/9/2023 16:28

I was going off youtube official launch trailer views.

[74tom] 18/9/2023 15:35

Yeah, I've been bearish here for a long time but that is pure trolling Yankhanson. Most of the reviews are fairly positive so far, to me the big question marks are around how much demand they will generate at the £60 mark. It needs to be AAA quality to generate excitement at that price point.

[jhardline] 18/9/2023 15:24

I beg to differ:


Here's my search list - i didnt watch them though...

Reviews:










All of them have WAY MORE views and subscirbers

[yankhanson] 18/9/2023 15:11

"why didn't you cite a relevant guy" He's relevant because he's one of reviewers showing interest in this game. And very few are. I cited him because he's the one Google thinks is most relevant.

[lyndley] 18/9/2023 14:57

Google's top review, 1320 subscribers, 1,386 views, ok mate. XD

[jhardline] 18/9/2023 14:19

This guy has 1320 subscribers . totally irrelevant - why didnt you cite a relevant guy

[yankhanson] 18/9/2023 13:54

So Google's top review of Frontier's Warhammer beta makes no mention of Frontier. Assuming Frontier bought that omission, I can see why.

"Join us as we expose the hollow shell that is Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin. Brace yourself for disappointment, frustration, and an overwhelming sense of regret as you navigate through this abysmal attempt at a tabletop wargame.

SEO Keywords: Warhammer Age of Sigmar, Realms of Ruin, disaster, clunky controls, laughably bad game complexity, uninspired gameplay mechanics, poor quality miniatures, lackluster artwork, convoluted integration, disappointment, regret."

[mortal1ty] 18/9/2023 12:50

Not space related. Maybe a planet hospital? Another planet coaster? You know something like that.

[lyndley] 18/9/2023 11:51

>Management moving back to creative management sims in FY 2025. Clearly learnt their lesson about what they should and shouldn't do.

Now is not the time, market's now saturated with Space games, but I do wonder if an Elite 5 has been discussed as a way out.

[lyndley] 18/9/2023 11:23

I don't think GW care that much, they never been very fussy about who uses the IP.

[shanklin] 18/9/2023 10:37

Hopefully, from a GAW perspective, they will block FDEV from releasing a hopeless over-priced Warhammer game. So, either it won't be released or it will be a non-disaster of a game.

[mortal1ty] 18/9/2023 10:33

I think this Warhammer came will be the last disaster of this sorry affair. The reviews looks mixed and the price point is too high.

Management moving back to creative management sims in FY 2025. Clearly learnt their lesson about what they should and shouldn't do.

...so how low do we go until then. £2?

[yankhanson] 17/9/2023 23:40

Cirlbunting1, "Another valid question that hangs over them is, do they have the funding for one more attempt and do investors have the patience"

Answer is obvious from the annual report. Absolutely no mention of F1 Manager 2024.

[p1nkfish] 14/9/2023 22:31

There is potential here and that is what is so frustrating.

They might pull something out of the hat on mass media or TV gaming of some sort (don't ask me what, I don't have a clue) but as is, without change, they are not doing the potential of the company, or shareholders, justice.

[cirlbunting1] 14/9/2023 21:35

Great points all. To your point Mortal1ty re “long time to turn round a video games company. Their pipeline was set from the Braben era” … all it takes is one game to turn around a company’s fortunes. It’s becoming the mantra in video gaming nowadays.

I think an intangible asset here which most devalue is the price of failure and the experience obtained from it. In essence, fail to you make it: “they will eventually get it right after multiple attempts”. How many times do we see games flop, and then flop again, but hit gold in their 3/4th attempt… As SGTWhisper pointed out, “30 mins reading steam chat boards it would have been clear as day F1M 23 was going to flop”. They have so much feedback from both F1 games, that it’s possible they could try one more punt and perfect it (caveat being if they listen). Do they fix all the in-game issues whilst providing enhancements, change the price mix and date of release, or perhaps the platform itself (expand into mobile or only mobile?). Another valid question that hangs over them is, do they have the funding for one more attempt and do investors have the patience (which SGT greatly pointed out)?

Given the success of football manager, F1’s booming popularity + FDEVs experience in simulation, I reckon they could give it one more shot. But also, they can consolidate here. Cut costs (which they’ve done with foundry), reduce head count, concentrate on previous titles that were successful and expand on those.

I’m in the camp that there’s a lot of great possibility here. Just my 2 pennies worth.

[mortal1ty] 14/9/2023 14:28

Thing is... it takes a long time to turn round a video games company. Their pipeline was set from the Braben era.

In hindsight F1 manager was a waste of money. They are stuck developing this game that seems too difficult to make a return on.