Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hastings] 20/7/2018 09:42

Shanklin, I wouldn't expect them to comment, any more than they did when the shares surged upwards.

[mad foetus] 20/7/2018 09:37

The share price action doesn't make much sense to me, but I cannot imagine there are too many sellers at this level. If you are technically minded you would have sold long ago. If you care more about the fundamentals they are getting stronger and stronger. It is not exactly good value, but each unit sold is, after paying the licence fee, pure profit in the bottom line. We now have three strong franchises with annuity income likely to be in the £30-50m bracket (obviously JWE add ins are an unknown at present), two new franchises in production and on for a new launch each year, and we have to assume that will be a minimum million plus seller, adding a minimum £10-20m to the annuity income.

[shanklin] 20/7/2018 09:33

Does anybody have any specific questions for the FD other than why has there been no RNS commenting on the 35%+ decline in the share price from £18.25 at COB on 5th June to £11.45 currently?

It would obviously also be helpful for FDEV to do a filmed formal results presentation or similar, which could then cover in a bit more detail how they plan to move forward as per the following paragraph from the 12-Jun-18 RNS:

"As communicated in the Group's previous Annual Reports, in addition to the current core model of using internal resources supplemented by outsourced services, the Group will continue to explore other models to accelerate its scale-up by further leveraging existing expertise, intellectual property, publishing presence, relationships and financial position. These models include third party publishing (controlling the promotion and distribution of other developers' games), commissioning (outsourcing the majority of development of Frontier games to other developers), and enhancing the Group's franchise portfolio or capabilities via acquisitions."

[funkmasterp12] 20/7/2018 09:28

Got my eye on this for a bounce after totally messing up my sale previously - a couple of key support zones approaching, c. £11.25 being the first - if it breaches this, it could go all the way down to £10 where support is a lot stronger.

Sentiment against this despite the great updates - surprising, but one to trade as you see it I guess.

[p1nkfish] 20/7/2018 09:28

Anyone want to predict local bottom?

[p1nkfish] 20/7/2018 09:27

Weakness on good news may have emboldened sellers/shorters.

[czeck] 20/7/2018 09:25

Agree but this made me chuckle 'It’s been an even more rewarding year for investors(...)who have seen the value of their shares rise 145% since last July. '
Should have added 'but have since seen the share price drop by 250% since Mid June'

[endion] 20/7/2018 09:21

Not blinkered czeck, just aware of the fundamentals at play regardless of a mindless market reaction.

[czeck] 20/7/2018 09:16

Meanwhile Yahoo finance wearing blinkers..

[cormask] 20/7/2018 09:10

Yes indeed it does and if anything seems to be accelerating.

[czeck] 20/7/2018 09:06

and the rout resumes!

[sogoesit] 20/7/2018 08:46

Unfortunately final results, to year-end 31 May, will give us little insight about the new "step-up" in game assets (JWE) apart, hopefully, some development cost info. What we are looking for are trading updates, which may of course happen at the final results in a trading outlook. However, I would hope something transpires before then.
I am disappointed in their management of news about forthcoming franchises since there is no guidance as to what criteria they will use to pick a news issuance time to my knowledge.

Here's the quote from the interims about the results to 31 May, issued on 6 February:

"The Board continues to anticipate that Frontier's next step-up in financial performance will be delivered by the launch of Jurassic World Evolution in summer 2018 on PC, PlayStation 4 and Xbox One. The Board continues to expect that revenue from this new franchise will fall into the financial year ending 31 May 2019, as the Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom movie is released in June 2018. The Board therefore continues to anticipate that trading in the current financial year, the twelve months ending 31 May 2018, will principally be based on sales from the Elite Dangerous and Planet Coaster franchises."

[liam1om] 20/7/2018 08:01

Final results just two months away now. Let's hope we bounce soon.

[endion] 20/7/2018 07:29

I have no idea what that could be. Mm's exchanging shares possibly? This will be an interesting day.

[square1] 20/7/2018 07:23

Big trade prints put this morning 433,588 at 1240- printed twice- one last night, one today. Is that a double print? Was that the reason for the fall? Or will that turnout to be a non-issue tax related trade?

[endion] 20/7/2018 06:31

Once again the delayed large buys all add up to circa 60k shares, the same amount as bennbridges increase in short position. To put this in perspective the two deferred trades that seemed to cripple the share price yesterday were 16k each, totalling half of bennbridges extra short. Seeing how exaggerated share price movements can be on this stock due to a small free float, i wouldnt be suprised if they were the main reason for this share price movement. Obviously other sellers were in the mix, but selling 60k shares each day will have a large impact on this share price.
DYOR.

[kamitora] 20/7/2018 06:04

Dinosaur video game proves a roaring success for British tech firm Frontier Developments

[breakconvention] 20/7/2018 00:23

Wouldn't it be lovely if one of the 2 new games was the long awaited, new 007 game... It would obviously need to wipe the floor, set long ago by the N64 'Golden Eye' game - But as it's Daniel Craigs last performance as bond, I'm sure there will be a game release that co-insides with this movie release. If I were a studio exec, FDEV would definitely be a port of call. In my mind only TTWO or FDEV could deliver a game of the quality that the 007 Franchise deserves. It's only a dream, but if it happens, it could send FDEV into orbit.

[endion] 19/7/2018 22:38

I have posted the trading update to my website. Also an article relating to the recent share price movements here:

investfdev.webnode.com/share-price-reaction-to-trading-upate/

I have included some theories posted here, simply stating that they are investor views and/or speculations.

[allstar4eva] 19/7/2018 21:34

This FDEV related content was lifted from another thread (VLG investing)

[allstar4eva] 19/7/2018 21:31

One thing - I can't remember if it was discussed. At the last trading update the broker increased their revenue forecast by 30% yet profit increased by only 8%. I am wondering if this has contributed to the recent fall? I think we were expecting the opposite - revenue increases leading to disproportionately larger profitability increases due to development costs being largely fixed.

Any thoughts?

[mad foetus] 19/7/2018 18:27

Worth recalling there were substantial directors buys at £13+ last year. My money is on Liberum touting a placing and doing their usual venal best to shaft PIs. Hope DB can stand up to them.

[endion] 19/7/2018 18:03

Hastings knows them personally, having interviewed them in the past :p i'm just watching very closely. Braben sounded his usual self in the RNS, thats the sort of comment he has made in the past. The comment on game quality was to draw attention to the fact that its success was down to its quality as a game rather than the films marketing. Surely the numbers speak for themselves.

I agree it would be nice to have some confirmation from fdev about current share price movements.

[rar100] 19/7/2018 17:59

I wonder if any of the bod of FDEV knows what's happening with the share price
After issuing the trading statement today, which in FDEV's eyes was supposed to be positive (and therefor they probably thought share price should rise) I think that they could make a comment as today's fall was dramatic enough to warrant it. Especially if they know of some dodgy dealing somewhere. or whatever it is that's happening as this is very bad news for investors and the company.
I'm a little concerned at the part in the RNS where he says 'it's the quality of the game that's important' yes ok but I'd would liked to have seen more enthusiasm - people are going crazy to get the game, it's such fun to play I'm up all night etc. etc. imho, the RNS was stayed and a bit boring and came across as deliberately so. So the RNSnon??? was poor and the share price a disaster today after a very bad few weeks. Maybe Endion could call them for some answers? I suggest endion as he knows the Co. so well.

[endion] 19/7/2018 17:52

even if a placement were coming to fund an acquisition, which to be honest I doubt, I don't believe it would justify a drop in share price like this. Each large drop has coincided with the news released. I can't explain it, and to be honest I wouldn't even be above suggesting that it needs investigating.