Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 19/7/2018 13:05

czeck - the company did just reassure investors!

nimbo - I'm pretty sure it is all about the school holidays, nice weather, being or going on vacation. I could envisage further weakness though until September for that reason. Volume is a fraction of that in the run up to 1800. Yes the next franchise is pertinent, but I now think they will announce that on or just before results day, just as they did for JWE.

If you look at the JWE announcements on You Tube, the trailer went up 20 August, and the first in game footage on 8 October. I'm not suggesting the time line will be identical, but clearly the gamers enjoyed the stream of material so it is important to be able to build anticipation that way.

[nimbo1] 19/7/2018 12:53

I said it too - they said in the feb analysts meeting they would announce the next title alongside the launch of JWE - however you interpret alongside whether to mean at the same time or a little after...this has clearly now changed and its clear the market doesn't like it.

Agree with all your comments makw61.

[makw61] 19/7/2018 12:53

Endion, i think you are right about the film comment. It could be better seen as DB telling the market to look beyond the film because JWE is a good game that will only get better with time. I must admit i saw it as a negative initially but have now pivoted! ATB

[makw61] 19/7/2018 12:50

Shanklin, i think it was our very own Hastings / PP back in January:

hxxps://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/business/technology/frontier-developments-jurassic-world-game-14149146

"Braben himself who as ever generates and resonates a boyish enthusiasm around the various gaming themes also talks of beyond the impending release and says that in conjunction with that, Frontier will also be announcing the title of its fourth franchise."

I feel like i've seen it somewhere else, but can't remember where, very frustrating!

ATB

[panic investor] 19/7/2018 12:49

I think it was only 4 they mentioned and I think stated they would announce it at the same time as 3 was released

[allstar4eva] 19/7/2018 12:46

nimbo - The 8m units was not a sales forecast but a comment on what is possible for a blockbuster game and it was mentioned in a broker note. So the possibility of 8m sales was information in the market. As mentioned though it was nowhere near priced for so should not be the reason for the drop.

[shanklin] 19/7/2018 12:44

I am sure I have seen it... ...but can't currently find it... where did FDEV state they would give details of franchises 4 and 5 in the relatively short-term?

Incidentally, I am more in the camp of there being a non-price-sensitive seller about that is selling into strength rather than anything more untoward, not that I am enjoying the valuation hit I am taking.

[makw61] 19/7/2018 12:43

I get the impression that DB isn't that bothered about the share price short term and as long as he is concentrating on building long term value that is fine by me. My best guess for announcement of the fourth franchise would be the Frontier Expo in the autumn, although possible it will be alongside the results announcement. Next year is very unlikely i think considering that it is in full development now.

Having said that, they did say they would announce the 4th franchise around the JWE launch and i do think it a little unfair to shareholders not to have done so. As the share price/market cap continues to fall it becomes harder IMHO to argue this isn't price sensitive information.

Very surprised by the price action today. The shares were around £18 when forecasts were for 1.5m units sold. They've sold 1m in 5 weeks and we're much lower! GLA

[panic investor] 19/7/2018 12:38

Needed a correction but could fall through support at this rate

[nimbo1] 19/7/2018 12:36

they did say it panic - so its a mismanagement of expectations in my humble opinion. Now market doesn't know whether we have a june launch next year or have to wait another 18 months etc. all we know is a launch next calendar year and one more the year after.
its all noise in the long term...but painful noise if you were expecting to be back up at 18 pounds + this summer.

[nimbo1] 19/7/2018 12:34

no broker note has ever suggested that...they are all at c.1.5 mil mid case, i have the notes. Optimistic posters on this board have mostly been at 2-3 mil with some above.

[allstar4eva] 19/7/2018 12:30

I believe that one of the broker notes suggested that 8m units sold was the median level and it appears that JWE will be nowhere near that however the market was not pricing in anywhere 8m unit sales either so the recent share price performance is quite baffling.

[czeck] 19/7/2018 12:27

so market not remotely happy about the 1M unit sold already mmmmm... bs!

[panic investor] 19/7/2018 12:27

I agree - I thought they said it was going to follow pretty soon - that's the reason !

[nimbo1] 19/7/2018 12:26

im pretty sure its all about the next title. market wants to know what is is and when.

[liam1om] 19/7/2018 12:24

Make that 5% and falling.

[square1] 19/7/2018 12:19

FDEV remains highly illiquid- BOD own 38% and named Insts own 34% so frre loat is just 28% so moves will be exaggerated

[philpotts] 19/7/2018 12:15

Could this be a credibility issue with the market rather than manipulation? The last 2 positive RNS's have seen a quick rise in share price then just as quickly same day a fall. I, for one, can't work it out but am holding on long-term hoping for a rise..

[endion] 19/7/2018 11:54

Thanks for your thoughts mark, always good to have another opinion.

Regarding brabens comment on the film media helping sales, i took it to mean that even though sales would have been helped by the films marketing, it was the quality of the game that was the real reason for the success.

[cfro] 19/7/2018 11:49

With the kids all about to break up for the summer hols in the Western world they should start to hit the cinemas for Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom. I would then naturally expect JWE game sales to increase thereafter. So i think another big push in sales over the next few weeks.

[makw61] 19/7/2018 11:45

It does seem like there is a committed seller in the market, who takes advantage of increased liquidity from good announcements to offload shares. My best guess is that it would be one of the early backers of FDEV who understandably just want to take some money off the table and can afford to be not too price sensitive. At some point the selling pressure will ease.

For every seller there must be a buyer, so be interesting to see if anyone has built a disclosable stake in due course. I don't necessarily think there is evidence of market manipulation; the large buys are simply deferred announcements i think rather than after hours trades. The cancelled orders may just be HFT's who leave orders out there for info purposes and then cancel before they are filled?

1m sales in 5 weeks is very encouraging. Jun/Jul are not strong months for games sales i would guess which makes the performance vs PC which launched Nov better than it might appear. 3m+ sales looks like a conservative estimate to me with possibly two paid DLC's for flying and aquatic dinosaurs on top. Not sure what to make of Braben's comment about the film impact - possibly natural caution on his part? There will be a digital/DVD release for the film, prob in the run up to Christmas which will be a nice boost also.

[endion] 19/7/2018 10:54

In the article posted above the author speculated that the fourth franchise would be revealed early next year.

There is no official word from Frontier on the release date for the fourth franchise.

[staverly] 19/7/2018 10:37

Liam ... "Problem with the next franchise announcement is that its now not expected until early next year, according the note above", please can you develop your source.

[endion] 19/7/2018 10:31

Team17's 10p rise is on the back of a trading update with no numbers at all. Thats how share price should react, especially when hard numbers are released.