Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[staverly] 27/7/2018 23:17

Endion: assuming your post 3034 alludes to the forthcoming FY RNS press release, how do you equate the probability of DB upgrading his usual "in due course" stance. Personally, i think it's less than 50/50 that any meaningful 4th Fr. news will be provided in early September. The corollary being that Mr Market will immediately want to drag the stock of this eminently investable company further south, irrespective of stellar sales. Unless, of course, you meant something else ...

[makw61] 27/7/2018 19:35

Agreed, plenty of upside here. It's important to factor in how the model works. So forget about the current player numbers for ED and wait for the re-boot (just like NMS). The game has the highest installed based of the three games so plenty of potential to sell an expansion to existing owners as well as bringing in new ones.

PC is selling well still and each DLC seems to get a good uptake.

JWE has slipped back from its highs but the game will be continually improved, DLC for additional dinosaurs will be strong and i expect a great performance every time it goes on sale. It is expensive but it makes sense to get as many full price sales as possible before discounting.

I think there is a temptation to read too much into the steam charts (availability bias perhaps!). Steam is not the only pc platform around and doesn't necessarily correlate with console sales either.

Gamescon in August so maybe an update on ED then. Failing that the frontier expo i would think. GLA

[endion] 27/7/2018 18:02

No reply.... go figure.

This company has no debt. A steady income that all well informed here know is growing. JWE revenue is going to transform the share price. Fourth franchise being revealed at year end and more updates on all the games!

If anyone can find me a crippling negative anywhere here then I would genuinely, gladly listen. Provided there is evidence.

[makw61] 27/7/2018 17:24

Well, as someone who bought Asos at 50p and sold at £1 i think a bit of confirmation bias can be valuable with these multi-year, multi-bagger opportunities. Biases have evolved for a reason, they aren't automatically wrong in every case. Look up loss aversion, path dependency, kelly criterion for example. (Hint: Kahneman's examples are one-offs as he would be the first to admit, the answer may be different if you link a number of them together).

It would genuinely help if you would set out the data that you think the bulls on this board are ignoring in their supposed confirmation bias. I think we all know what the phrase means.

[endion] 27/7/2018 16:55

Exactly, after hour trades are already higher.

[bamboo2] 27/7/2018 16:53

The UT trade timed at 16.35 is also the opening price on Monday.
Due to the artificial low close, I guess the price will gap up at the open next week.

Bit of a game really!

[endion] 27/7/2018 16:44

*sigh*..... once again, i trade on fundamentals, not bias. Thank you for your aptly timed warning but I'm very comfortable with my research in this company.

Thanks for the direction point bamboo.

Seems like the pattern of selling down in the morning and on close is back. If the pattern follows though we should see some large buy backs after hours.

[hawaly] 27/7/2018 16:42

Perhaps look up confirmation bias while you're there?

[bamboo2] 27/7/2018 16:30

It's called 'painting the tape'.

An eod and/or eow phenomenon. Google it!

[endion] 27/7/2018 16:25

Bizzare number of small trades this afternoon. Anyone have any ideas to explain it? Never seen anything like it.

[endion] 27/7/2018 14:20

At least the market now know when to expect knews of the next franchise. Glad to see Elite is still being supported with an even larger team.

I expect sales from Elite and Planet Coaster might suprise us. Especially given the marketing that JWE afforded Frontier.

[ck1111] 27/7/2018 13:17

Mark4231,

ObsidianAnt speculates there that a big ED announcement is coming soon


at around the 4:20 point

[mark4231] 27/7/2018 13:00

I personally think Elite: Dangerous has great potential for a re-launch alongside a huge new feature such as landing on planets with atmospheres and the associated game play that could go with that.

Look at the big No Man's Sky update this week. The game has been available for 2 years but has disappointed players during that time. This week there is a big new update, which opinion suggests makes it a good game now, and it has been sat at the top of the Steam global top sellers for the last few days.

[shanklin] 27/7/2018 12:52

Thank you hastings

Obviously FDEV seek to get a massive sales bump from each new game and thereafter to achieve the highest possible lifetime profit, for that game, be it through ongoing paid downloadable content or recruiting late adopters to the game.

My simplistic view is that across the games being developed/enhanced, FDEV will allocate staff to maximise overall NPV profit.

As an outsider, it is very difficult to model this and get some handle on profits going forward.


Cheers, Martin

[hastings] 27/7/2018 12:37

Hi Shanklin from memory JWE at its development height had around 100 on it, that obviously drops off. Don't forget though they've taken more heads on and are still hiring.

[shanklin] 27/7/2018 11:55

Mark

As per

it is certainly interesting that the Elite Dangerous team is growing. I had thought of it and Planet Coaster providing ongoing annuity type income, probably declining over time, but FDEV growing the ED team perhaps suggests that is not how they see things.

P.S. Has anybody, eg. Hastings, got any idea please as to how large the various game-related teams are currently?

[mark4231] 27/7/2018 10:07

hxxps://wccftech.com/frontier-next-game-unveiled-late-2018/

David Braben quote says next franchise announcement late this year/early next year.

[nimbo1] 27/7/2018 09:11

on that subject we game - tencent's gaming platform is going global. I assume FDEV games will be on it. It is possible having the platform set up in Hong Kong will get around china's strict censorship rules so even ED might be available.

[endion] 27/7/2018 09:02

I'm waiting for an official Chinese a release of JWE. That would make some fireworks.

[kamitora] 27/7/2018 08:37

May be of background interest:

SoftBank-backed Improbable doubled its valuation to $2 billion after raising $50 million from a Chinese gaming giant

[rivaldo] 26/7/2018 11:22

JWE featured as one of the 6 best games of 2018 so far:



And a nice plug yesterday for FDEV's Disneyland game:



"Navigating Xbox Game Pass: Disneyland Adventures
By MuddyTunnels -
July 25, 2018

Xbox Game Pass is an excellent way to budget your money and play a variety of games.

With this in mind, I decided to explore the games currently available. So I decided to play these games and review what I think of them. Whether new or old, all are up for review.

Disneyland Adventures

This entry will be about Disneyland Adventures, or Kinect Disneyland Adventures, depending on the system owned. Originally released on the Xbox 360 under the title Kinect Disneyland Adventures. This open-world RPG for children was developed by Frontier Developments. It hit the US November 15th, 2011 as a Kinect only title for the 360. However, Halloween Day 2017 Asobo Studios and Publisher Microsoft released a remastered version. The one for XboxOne is Kinect or controller. They also have a Windows PC version. Now let’s talk cheddar.....

.....My Experience:

My wife and I both found it hilarious. We both love this game. Despite how corny it may sound, it is really easy to get lost in the magic of the Disney environment. Running around collecting items, working missions, or just chatting with characters, you can easily lose a couple hours on this game. It is rated E for everyone and is intended for children. I truly feel this is great fun for the entire family. The controls handle nicely and the levels are easy yet immersive. Various attire options allow everyone to customize their avatar to their taste. I am no Disney junky, but I can’t stop playing this game. The characters and their endearing personalities bring back childhood memories of magic and wonder. So in closing, I highly recommend this game whether 5 or 95 the magic of Disney just won’t seem to die."

[sogoesit] 25/7/2018 18:13

This baby is going to need a bit of nursing... hopefully patience will be rewarded.

[drofdavid] 25/7/2018 17:15

Thor, Hastings? Isn't that the sequel to Frozen?

[vworlds_cambridge] 25/7/2018 14:36

Hi Hastings. I think my main point was that the article could have been a bit more bullish about the next franchise, rather than essentially leaving it as a complete unknown. Entirely agree that management should take a long-term view about the franchise details, but I do hope that the right moment to announce it is near :-)

[hastings] 25/7/2018 14:16

Hi Mark, yes you are right, that comment was as far as I know confined to the Broker.One assumes though that they have been guided by the company. That said, when I was at the HQ last week it was said when appropriate or when it's the right time.They clearly have their way of doing things in terms of timing and certainly won't be badgered into making announcements that don't fit with Thor plans.