Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

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[makw61] 08/7/2018 21:44

It's quite hard to read across from other games as the steam charts are by value rather than volume as far as i know. I'm comfortable with the sort of volumes people are forecasting on this board, but personally more because of the console side.

Having said that, current Steam positions are very encouraging plus i expect good sales of DLC and then as posted earlier probably a post-Christmas sale plus an easter sale. The price is relatively high for a pc game, and i think that's why it tends to do better in the UK steam chart than the global one which appears to be a little more price sensitive.

[endion] 08/7/2018 20:09

Considering those chart positions, held the other side of a major steam sale, it bodes very well for breaking 4m unit sales, as pointed out by staverly above. My personal target is 4m, though I'd be happy with above 3.5. If Frontier can prove that their next game has a good chance for success, maintain their p/e ratio, then I see no reason the share price won't soar easily past £20 and beyond. Calculations are done else where on my posts or website to support these numbers, it's not just ramping!

[nimbo1] 08/7/2018 18:50

I personally think the next 6-8 months will be good for shareholders.

All the JWE income from the large opening sales period will get reported in this period making like to like comparisons look v good.

The cashflow from JWE will enable FDEV to take very interesting growth decisions ref next titles - we know there are 2 games in development for 19 and 20. However realistically there could now be more through third party publishing, small developer acquisition or in house acceleration. (although it does take 2 years to make a AAA title (or it should!).

And JWE on steam is now at number 6 again in the global top sellers list and number 2 in the UK - and holding well in the chart spots across physical and digital playstation / xbox online stores etc.

[endion] 08/7/2018 18:30

You're right, its only on steam. It was only ever 3rd best seller, unlike JWE which was 1st for a while. Gives you a hint as to the numbers sold.

I would guess that in the winter sale JWE will be 10% off or something similar, then possibly 15% in the easter sale. Some people have been telling others to what for a sale before buying it and so we could see a spike in sales at these times. I do think a reduction in price would help sales and revenue in those events. If they coincide that with dlc release, then you can have people pay full price for dlc but discount on core game.

[staverly] 08/7/2018 17:39

For all doubting Ts: the link below, taken at a face value, provides a powerful read across:

hxxps://www.polygon.com/2018/6/26/17507016/raft-review-updates-steam-early-access

I invite Endion to correct me, but preliminary enquiries confirm Raft as only playable via Steam. This suggests that JWE unit sales in Y1 should exceed 4m. The key issue being how long management prepared to sell at RRP.

[nimbo1] 08/7/2018 17:17

The reason they aren’t heavily into vr yet is because it hasn’t reached commercial scale yet according to DB. They have the capability as per ED and I’m sure we’ll see more from them in due course regarding vr...at the right time.

[nimbo1] 08/7/2018 17:15

The reason they aren’t heavily into vr yet is because it hasn’t reached commercial scale yet according to DB. They have the capability as per ED and I’m sure we’ll see more from them in due course regarding vr...at the right time.

[sogoesit] 08/7/2018 09:04

Thanks for feedback guys... interesting one to keep an eye on.

[vworlds_cambridge] 07/7/2018 12:47

I did see some requests for JWE to support VR, but that genre doesn't really suit it very well. Imagine what the dinosaur fights would be like in VR though!

[mark4231] 07/7/2018 12:21

The standard Elite: Dangerous game supports VR, it is an amazing experience. The game is also available to purchase in the Oculus store because of this. So, FDEV have experience of VR integration although, at the moment, I'm not sure how that really affects their financial bottom line - probably not much.

[vworlds_cambridge] 07/7/2018 11:44

Elite Dangerous supports VR (Rift, Vive, etc). All the environments are fully 3D rendered. So, definitely an area that Frontier has experience in, and can expand further.

[sogoesit] 07/7/2018 11:15

An article in this week's IC on VR mentions FDEV and its involvement through Elite Dangerous. (Is there a VR product for that, I don't know? Must be more highly priced, I guess).
A growth area for FDEV?

(Their pick in the sector is Learning Technologies - LTG:LDN).

[endion] 06/7/2018 23:33

Looking at the steam reviews graph it seems that positive reviews are staying at a steady level whereas negative ones are starting to taper off. Might nudge it back up to "very positive" eventually.

[endion] 06/7/2018 20:13

Likely the drop off in sales numbers for those games which temporarily over took it. JWE sold very well its first few weeks, and continues to sell well all points indicate, so as other ganes fall away and its average rises it should fair quite well in charts.

[nimbo1] 06/7/2018 19:23

Back at number 9 In global bestsellers list - I’m impressed, didn’t think we’d see it that high again.

[endion] 06/7/2018 13:14

Fairly quiet day all in all so far. Not a bad thing at all. Bring on more DLC, trading updates and the fourth franchise!

[panic investor] 06/7/2018 11:56

Charts don't go up in straight lines guys

[staverly] 06/7/2018 11:52

Posted in error

[mark4231] 06/7/2018 10:05

We know that (well we think we do), its just a matter of the wider market realising it too and buying in. That is what successful investing is all about, identifying the shares to buy whilst they're cheap before the rest of the world notices. Of course we might be wrong and the rest of the world is right after all.

[vworlds_cambridge] 06/7/2018 09:47

Like some others, I'm also mystified by the current share price weakness. Although Frontier haven't announced exact details of the next franchise, we know that "it's a very high profile franchise, which enjoys a global fanbase", and is a "project which promises to be equally exciting [as JWE]". Their recent update also confirms that they can very successfully deliver a high profile AAA title, so the next franchise looks very promising to me, and the shares deserved a significant uptick on confirmation of good sales. Still, I'll be keeping my shares as a long-term investment, and have no doubt that they'll do very well.

[endion] 05/7/2018 22:47

Links to follow chart positions have been added to website. Include the amazon uk, usa, germany for PS4 and XBOX, PS4 store, XBOX store and PC Steam charts. They are on the fundamentals page.

[hpcg] 05/7/2018 15:08

We just have to accept that there are those in the market that think it is a sell at this level. That's what a market is. For those accumulating buy as low as you can. I had an order filled at 13.65 but could have got cheaper it seems. Ultimately buyers have to overwhelm the sellers for the price to move up.