Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[endion] 24/5/2018 19:19

They must be pretty confident to show so much of the game before release, shows how much belief they have in their product. For any other company it would be a risk, if people didnt like what they saw it would harm sales. However with fdev its onlt gonna help!

[nimbo1] 24/5/2018 14:24

hxxps://www.reddit.com/r/jurassicworldevo/comments/8lrelg/jurassic_world_evolution_live_gameplay_premiere/

Hi there!
The launch of Jurassic World Evolution is edging closer and we are excited to tell you a bit more about what we are planning during that second week of June!
Firstly, on Sunday June 10, 2018 at 16:00 PST (0:00 BST/01:00 CEST/19:00 EDT), LIVE FROM LA, we will be showing you everything about the game in a celebratory pre-launch livestream on both Twitch and YouTube!
We are joined by familiar faces from the developer diaries, Head of Animation Nick Rodgers and Executive Producer Rich Newbold, as we talk through the amazing journey of developing Jurassic World Evolution, show off gameplay on the various islands, discuss the ins and outs of bringing dinosaurs to life, and give away a bunch of copies of the game plus a super exclusive unique prize! We’ll be in the stream chats to answer and relay your questions and comments live, so it will be a great chance for you to get that last, juicy info on the eve of the game’s premiere.
We’re streaming simultaneously to the following channels:www.twitch.tv/frontierdevelopmentswww.youtube.com/jurassicworldevolution
Do make sure you subscribe to our official channels for any future announcements, livestreams, and other exciting news from us.
Jurassic World Evolution will launch globally on June 12, 2018 on PC, PlayStation 4, and Xbox One. Frontier will be at E3 in LA from June 12-14 to showcase the game, so please do stop by our booth to say hello and play it yourself if you are attending!
<3 Bo

[alphabeta4] 24/5/2018 11:01

As many of you know I'm more of a fundamentals than a technical analysis person but I couldn't help noticing the chart from early May shows a classic Brachiosaurus formation suggesting the imminent release of a dinosaur themed game :)

[endion] 24/5/2018 10:54

JWE just turned up on the front page of my steam account for the first time! Until now i had to actively search for it. Should start boosting sales numbers.

[endion] 23/5/2018 23:27

JWE will also direct gamers who haven't heard of Frontier before to their previous game titles like Planet Coaster and Elite. It opens up their company to a worldwide audience that they may not have reached otherwise. I would expect the sales of both their previous games to rise slightly this year too because of that.

The revenue doubled after Planet Coaster was released, and that was only released on PC's, and was a fairly niche game. I think the revenue will more than double in comparison with JWE.

[endion] 23/5/2018 16:22

Two £1 million buys at 1700 today!

[sogoesit] 23/5/2018 15:46

Many thanks for your good education guys... very interesting and informative.
I'm learning.
Also never played these kind of games so it's a whole new world (altho I did used to watch a friend of mine's son play Minecraft... he was totally hooked; a bit like an addiction it appeared to me).

(I hold Tencent as an investment... but for other reasons than gaming.)

[nimbo1] 23/5/2018 15:11

Sogoesit, David Braben spotted early doors platforms like steam had changed things for a company like frontier because it changed the market dynamics / access to market - suddenly self publishing was an option for them (as opposed to making games for other people). In Feb he told me a modern game should have a life cycle of c.8 years depending on the title and be supported over time with new content, storylines etc which is a mixture of free and paid for content. Games as a service if you like from a loyal and interested customer base + every time there is a sale or new DLC you get more people interested. Normally you get the most sales in year one but then very good sales for years afterwards if the title is popular. A blockbuster like GTA V for example came out in 2013 - last year alone in the UK it sold c.1 million copies. The game changer for FDEV isn't just having a decent title (yet to be seen how good) in JWE its also the fact the Tencent investment last year enabled them to tool up so they will be moving from a game release every 2 years to 1 a year. Title 4 and 5 will be a 2019 and 2020 release.

[mad foetus] 23/5/2018 13:21

Sogoesit,The model really is to build games as ecosystems, so they have a fairly lengthy learning curve to get into them, but once you have learned the rules you are already invested in the game and every few months will buy upgrades and add ons. And for FDEV, the idea is that it adds a new franchise every year, so ends up with a whole stable of titles with income streams from all of them.

[sogoesit] 23/5/2018 13:12

Prognostications all look pretty impressive from you experts on the thread; thanks.

What will people pay? Depends on the annual growth rates in my experience but I don't know about games.... does a game kind of "blockbuster" then fade away or is there more constant growth over a few years?
If there are a few years of constant growth then the PEG can work well for valuations.

I would imagine too, as folks have been speculating here, the pipeline of new games also will compound the growth story.

[mark4231] 23/5/2018 12:34

makw61, £1.75, I'm jealous. I missed out with an average buy in of only £2.50. lol :-)

[nimbo1] 23/5/2018 12:32

Well done for being in at that price, I love stories like that. My average is far less impressive. c£11.20 but with 30% of my pf so I imagine we are both keen to see things progress in a positive fashion!

[makw61] 23/5/2018 12:14

Nimbo, you may be right about the multiple i've used being too low - it's just that if i use 40-60 i get some mind-boggling share prices given my base cost is around £1.75. I mean i want to believe, i just daren't yet! ATB

[luckymouse] 23/5/2018 11:52

Research shows only 90 stocks (representing 0.4% of all US stocks) were responsible for half of the $32 trillion net wealth created on the US market between 1926-2015.

This means if you want to be the Caboose attached to the wealth creation train, it really helps if you can identify that 1 in 200 stock that’s genuinely creating something big out of nothing.

[rivaldo] 23/5/2018 11:46

Lots of coverage of this...sounds pretty impressive:



And:



"Park building game Jurassic World Evolution gets new developer diary video

Build your own Jurassic Park

Wednesday, May 23rd 2018 - 11:02 BST

Development studio Frontier Developments has released a new developer diary video for its upcoming dinosaur theme park building game Jurassic World Evolution. The game releases in June.

In Jurassic World Evolution players will be able to build their own Jurassic World, bio-engineer new dinosaur breeds, and construct attractions, containment, and research facilities.

In the game every choice is said to lead to a different path and spectacular challenges arise when "life finds a way."

Jurassic World Evolution will release on June 12th, 2018, for PC, Xbox One and PlayStation 4. The game is based on the 2015 film Jurassic World."

[mark4231] 23/5/2018 10:56

If we say £100,000,000 for JWE how does that fit in with (estimated) revenue figures for Steam Top Sellers last year where the 3rd best selling game was GTA V with $83,000,000 (£62,000,000) in revenue? OK, GTA V was released before 2017 and JWE is also selling for Xbox One and PS4 but is £50,000,000 realistic for JWE on Steam in financial year 2018/19?

hxxps://www.resetera.com/threads/steamspy-top-20-games-by-revenue-on-steam-in-2017.31461/

I do feel we have a blockbuster coming with JWE though! I still can't get my head around about being consistently so high up in the Steam Top Sellers chart with 3 weeks still to go before release.

[nimbo1] 23/5/2018 10:47

Thanks for the comparison, interesting to see.

I think the 20 x is too negative by the way - all the listed peers (in high growth territory in the $1 bil market cap area, like paradox, thq nordic etc)in europe all have pe's above 60. But I am conservative by nature so dont want to think about 60x off 40 mil profit ; )

[makw61] 23/5/2018 10:30

Team17 floated on AIM this morning with a market cap of c.£278m. Last year their EBIT was around £9m so clearly a high multiple should be achievable here. FDEV will need to convince the market that JWE is not a one-off if it is to achieve a 30-40 times multiple, but even at say 20 times there is significant upside.

My base scenario has 3m units of JWE at £30 net giving £90m revenue plus £10m from PC/ED. If opex is say £50m as a worst case then that gives EBIT of £50m. 20 x's that gives £1bn EV, but there will be net cash of say £70m so MV would be £1.07bn or £27.75 per share.

If they announce a really exciting fourth franchise then i think a higher multiple could be achieved. GLA

[nimbo1] 23/5/2018 10:00

Thanks Sogoesit.

My 40 million profit expectation by the way is based on this very very simple calculation (not sure you can even call it a model). Clearly you can do it with 1 mil sales or 3 mil sales of JWE as you like and change the PC / ED income to be more optimistic. (I know i've rounded in places - this is broad brush!)

Copies of JWE sold = 2,000,000 = £100,000,000 revenue @ 70% (platform fee) = £70,000,000
Planet coaster / elite dangerous = £15,000,000 revenue @ 70% = 10,500,000.

£80,500,000

Costs of £40,000,000 million = £40,500,000 profit x 40 times = £1,620,000,000

[sogoesit] 23/5/2018 09:50

Making it simple, with 38.54m shares in issue, your profit forecast nimbo makes about £1/share EPS.
Paying 40x is £40... next stop, paying 20x, gives a near term TP of £20.

[nimbo1] 23/5/2018 09:25

The profound value creation here is because ignoring the share price, if fdev make 40 million profit this financial year just started the market cap on 40-80 times earnings will be over 1.5 billion. All good gaming companies trade at over 40 times earnkngs. And somewhere around 40 mil profit is achievable in my opinion only.

[allstar4eva] 23/5/2018 09:13

Good shout LM. Through £17... Market beginning to contemplate the possibility of JWE being a blockbuster.

[luckymouse] 23/5/2018 02:42

lots of blue

[endion] 23/5/2018 02:06

There does seem to be some resistance to 1700 for the past day or two. Could be a small turn in sp, however i dont think it would drop far. There has been solid buying on every dip so far. Potentially shaking off weak investors before the next ramp up.interesting to see your TA bamboo. Will be interesting see if this conforms to TA in the run up before game release.