Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[eriktherock] 06/11/2018 08:44

"I'm going out on a limb and saying a 5 to 10% gain here today by close of play."
Wrong day but good call.

[eriktherock] 06/11/2018 07:27

From a Fres technical set-up; I have known what to do but currently I'll have to fall back on my trading experience and do nothing. Maybe I was correct with the lower target when 865 broke down last week but probably not. 1050 a more probable target.

[eriktherock] 06/11/2018 07:18

Recent JIm Rogers interview worth a listen >

[eriktherock] 06/11/2018 07:16

We are seeing a Dollar bubble which naturally has it's impact on all valued in USD. However, in September we saw the bottom for silver around 13.9 so maybe we'll see some detachment for pm's from the daily Forex movement of USD pairs.

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 07:00

Henryxx. In fact, after pasting your post into MS Excel, I found you post was no less than 550 lines long - now that is really cheap, trying to push all other comments off the board!!!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:55

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:55

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:49

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:49

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:45

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:45

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:44

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hamhamham1] 06/11/2018 06:44

Henryxx. Each to their own thoughts.
But having seen your tactic here of re-posting the same long post 4 times in a row and not only that with the cynical use of large spacing between parts of your posting shows you for the agenda you have - why do it?
Watch I can do it as well...















































it's easy to do - but looks pathetic!

[hussyo] 05/11/2018 21:36

Henry... that's a very well thought out post. You've zoomed out a bit too much from my own trading perspective, so even IF all your points came to pass, there will be a lot of counter action along the way. It is into such reversal of an implied route where I see Fres at 1050 - 1100, which is my exit.

[henryxx] 05/11/2018 20:27

Hi Guys
As you know from the Competition entries I am somewhat bearish on this stock.
Target rice for silver $10. Key reason the $.
Successive targets for $: 98, 105, 108 - could possibly go as high as 114 -120.
Reasons for $ strength
1) Fed rate hike cycle - still some way to go before completion.

2) Deficit - Deficit in current fiscal year $1.3 Trillion.
This almost certainly will push up yields across the yield curve. This in turn will attract substantial overseas buying of treasuries/corporate bonds resulting in upward pressure on US exchange rate.

3)QT - Fed currently unwinding its balance sheet at the rate of $50Bn a month. Fed currently draining $600BN of liquidity per year from the system. Fewer available dollars will add fuel to the fire where 2) is concerned.

4)Repatriation of overseas profit following Tax changes. Profits in local currencies will need to be exchanged for dollars.

5)Inflation ? seems to be on an upward trajectory - implies higher interest rates.

6)$US cycle - the $ tends to trace out a 4 year cycle. We are in the early stages of the current cycle - commenced March/April of this year. Upward trajectory expected for many months.

7) Flight to $ from emerging markets - as their currencies weaken against $.

















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Anticipated increase in $US Strength likely to lead to much lower prices for silver/gold and mining stocks in coming weeks and months - I don't wish to be more prescriptive with regard to timeframe.
In the short term I am therefore very bearish but thereafter bullish

[henryxx] 05/11/2018 20:27

Hi Guys
As you know from the Competition entries I am somewhat bearish on this stock !
Target price for silver $10. Key reason the $.
Successive targets for $: 98, 105, 108 - could possibly go as high as 114 -120.
Reasons for $ strength
1) Fed rate hike cycle - still some way to go before completion.

2) Deficit - Deficit in current fiscal year $1.3 Trillion.
This almost certainly will push up yields across the yield curve. This in turn will attract substantial overseas buying of treasuries/corporate bonds resulting in upward pressure on US exchange rate.

3)QT - Fed currently unwinding its balance sheet at the rate of $50Bn a month. Fed currently draining $600Bn of liquidity per year from the system. Fewer available dollars will add fuel to the fire where 2) is concerned.

4)Repatriation of overseas profit following Tax changes. Profits in local currencies will need to be exchanged for dollars.

5)Inflation ? seems to be on an upward trajectory - implies higher interest rates.

6)$US cycle - the $ tends to trace out a 4 year cycle. We are in the early stages of the current cycle - commenced March/April of this year. Upward trajectory expected for many months.

7) Flight to $ from emerging markets - will intensify if their currencies continue to weaken against $.

Anticipated increase in $ strength likely to lead to much lower prices for silver/gold and mining stocks in coming weeks and months. In the short term I am therefore very bearish but bullish thereafter.
For the record currently no position on this stock but waiting patiently on the sidelines.
Don't have a crystal ball but have a sense Markets are becoming more increasingly unstable - could become quite scary in a short period of time.
All the best.

[henryxx] 05/11/2018 20:27

Hi Guys
As you know from the Competition entries I am somewhat bearish on this stock.
Target price for silver about $10. Key reason the $.
Successive targets for $: 98, 105, 108 - could possibly go as high as 114 -120.
Reasons for $ strength
1) Fed rate hike cycle - still some way to go before completion.

2) Deficit - Deficit in current fiscal year $1.3 Trillion.
This almost certainly will push up yields across the yield curve. This in turn will attract substantial overseas buying of treasuries/corporate bonds resulting in upward pressure on US exchange rate.

3)QT - Fed currently unwinding its balance sheet at the rate of $50Bn a month. Fed currently draining $600BN of liquidity per year from the system. Fewer available dollars will add fuel to the fire where 2) is concerned.

4)Repatriation of overseas profit following Tax changes. Profits in local currencies will need to be exchanged for dollars.

5)Inflation ? seems to be on an upward trajectory - implies higher interest rates.

6)$US cycle - the $ tends to trace out a 4 year cycle. We are in the early stages of the current cycle - commenced March/April of this year. Upward trajectory expected for many months.

7) Flight to $ from emerging markets - will intensify if their currencies continue to weaken against $.

Anticipated increase in $ strength likely to lead to much lower prices silver/gold and mining stocks in coming weeks and months. In the short term I am therefore very bearish but bullish thereafter.
For the record currently do not have a position in this stock but waiting patiently on the sidelines.
Don't have a crystal ball but have a sense that Markets are becoming increasingly unstable - could become quite scary in a short period of time.
All the best

[henryxx] 05/11/2018 20:27

Hi Guys
As you know from the Competition entries I am somewhat bearish on this stock.
Target rice for silver $10. Key reason the $.
Successive targets for $: 98, 105, 108 - could possibly go as high as 114 -120.
Reasons for $ strength
1) Fed rate hike cycle - still some way to go before completion.

2) Deficit - Deficit in current fiscal year $1.3 Trillion.
This almost certainly will push up yields across the yield curve. This in turn will attract substantial overseas buying of treasuries/corporate bonds resulting in upward pressure on US exchange rate.

3)QT - Fed currently unwinding its balance sheet at the rate of $50Bn a month. Fed currently draining $600BN of liquidity per year from the system. Fewer available dollars will add fuel to the fire where 2) is concerned.

4)Repatriation of overseas profit following Tax changes. Profits in local currencies will need to be exchanged for dollars.

5)Inflation ? seems to be on an upward trajectory - implies higher interest rates.

6)$US cycle - the $ tends to trace out a 4 year cycle. We are in the early stages of the current cycle - commenced March/April of this year. Upward trajectory expected for many months.

7) Flight to $ from emerging markets - as their currencies weaken against $.

















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Anticipated increase in $US Strength likely to lead to much lower prices for silver/gold and mining stocks in coming weeks and months - I don't wish to be more prescriptive with regard to timeframe.
In the short term I am therefore very bearish but thereafter bullish

[hamhamham1] 05/11/2018 15:17

Huss. Yep, but as well as FRES being the world's biggest silver miner they also do a fair bit of gold, about 70% of the volume that Randgold does.
I still think FRES will react as well, time will tell.

And of course it will follow gold in either direction :)

I am happy, last post for today, it's gonna be interesting tomorrow possibly.

Oops, last add...

[hussyo] 05/11/2018 15:11

ham... barrick and randgold are 2 of the weightiest holdings in GDX, which is rising into market uncertainty.

[hamhamham1] 05/11/2018 15:06

Interesting to see Randgold share price in the 35 mins since the US opened.

[hamhamham1] 05/11/2018 13:14

I don't see Salvini backing down much or at all on his 2.4% budget overspend?


Loads of Euro governments have broken the EU spending rules in their budgets in the past (e.g. France) and before they just got a wrap on the knuckles and a fine (of zero euros).
They seem to want to make an example of Italy here!