Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[henryxx] 28/2/2021 12:25

Hi -Have not contributed for a while. A few observations about the silver market. There are essentially two markets - the paper market and the physical market. Up until about 18 months ago the the physical market had lain dormant so that actions in the paper market always held sway in determining the spot price of silver. Since then the physical market has come to life in a big way because of the increasing industrial demand for silver (ie solar panels, batteries, phones etc). We now have a situation where the price of silver in the physical market is significantly at variance with the paper spot price and yet it would seem that the equity market has lost sight of this ! (basically it continues to use the paper spot price for share price determination)- clearly this situation cannot last much longer particularly in view of the way the physical market is taking off. The paper spot price of silver has been suppressed for years courtesy of 8 Bullion banks( there were 9 but JP Morgan closed out its short position in March of 2020 - hence the reason why silver dropped to $12)- these guys are the big shorts in the paper market and control about 45% of the market). However the big shorts now find themselves in an increasingly difficult position because of the increasing number of longs coming into the paper market (they can see the way the wind is blowing in the physical market ) - hence the reason why the spot price keeps creeping up. The big shorts are now sitting on $3Bn of losses at the current price($11Bn in the gold market). They are in bind and they know it - expect them to launch a bear raid and close out their shorts but in my view it will be a damage limitation exercise - I would be surprised to see silver drop very significantly from current levels. Once they close out their shorts expect the spot price to rise dramatically at which point there will a much higher degree of correlation between the paper spot price and the price in the physical market. If they don't close out their shorts and they continue to dictate terms in the paper market it is quite possible the paper market becomes irrelevant because of the increasing dominance of the physical market - in short the physical market will determine the price of silver. Either way the price of silver is likely to be dramatically affected(ie big increase). This is my take on events which are likely to be fast moving over the next 2/3 months. In my view if you are long stay long and watch this drama unfold - it could be quite violent. All the best.

[amaretto1] 27/2/2021 07:31

Yes ... 10p :-)

[trader536] 27/2/2021 06:18

Its closer to 1000p than 800p. 2020 results will have this back over 1000p quick as a flash

[amaretto1] 26/2/2021 17:21

My 800 pence trader ?

[lovewinshatelosses] 25/2/2021 14:24

Bought a few more. Must be money pouring into hot stocks, unless I am misreading the silver price on my screen!

[trader536] 24/2/2021 19:41

Keep doubling down you tool, Martingale or Nick Leeson strategy? Some of us prefer to cut our losses and add to our winners it makes far more sense you clueless tool.

[trader536] 24/2/2021 19:35

imastu pidgitaswell - 23 Mar 2020 - 10:20:36 - 3376 of 4004 Volex 2013 : Plug in for recovery ? - VLX Just catching up on here - after exiting throughout December (post 3163) and holding for c8-9 years. The thing I mentioned then was liquidity - you cannot exit this sort of share in volume, quickly. Lucky, not insightful, missed higher prices, but who really saw it coming - even though it had started (quietly) by late December. Now? 82p a much better price, but still not tempted - partly the same liquidity argument, partly the absence of any visibility. You can forget PE ratios - nobody knows or can know what the 'E' is on a sustainable basis. As previous post notes, production and demand are unknown, and for a long time to come. They're in a much better position financially and operationally thanks to the excellent management actions over past 2 years or so, but they (along with everyone else) have just run in to a freight train. They will recover - electric cars, cabling, data, medical systems etc - the basic physics has not changed. It's just that the current challenges are too big to be sure they will navigate them in the current structure (equity to debt) - although it does help that the executive chairman owns 25% of it and will not wish to see dilution of his stake.

[trader536] 24/2/2021 17:54

Poly could have been picked up for 5/600p at almost any point over the last 5/6 years, yet idiots are saying its cheap now and paying 1600p! These same idiots will be paying 1600p for FRES later this year claiming its cheap, these same idiots were selling FRES at 800p claiming its expensive, then buying FRES back and paying 1200p for stock they sold at 800p lol The brokers love these idiots, they are what's known as bread and butter numb skulls, they provide the brokers with profit

[trader536] 24/2/2021 17:40

2016 proved to be a failed breakout year for the PM market, simply use the 2016 highs as a reference point in metals and stocks to see which companies have yet to breakout of this range, FRES is one of the few left. Its only a matter of time before FRES exceeds its 2016 highs along with metal prices and most of its peers.

[rarther] 24/2/2021 17:31

Looking at the chart you wouldn't think this was the biggest primary silver producer in the world... Market has been oblivious to all the physical shortages, short squeezes and price rises happening in silver.FRES could send silver to $100 just by holding back supply.

[trader536] 24/2/2021 15:22

Yes we all know how much of a busy fool you are, especially your broker. Idiot.

[trader536] 24/2/2021 15:10

I expect my target of 185% profit to be hit later this year fuelled by the strong silver price. What the share price does in the meantime is irrelevant, some of us are busy living our lives and need to pay very little attention to a few %. Number one rule run your winners!!!!

[trader536] 24/2/2021 15:03

Did I hit a nerve there stupid? lol Cutting winners for £25 profit and holding on to losses for years in hope is what clueless armatures do, you clearly fall into that category.

[trader536] 24/2/2021 14:56

Its far more efficient to add to winners rather than doubling down on losers

[trader536] 24/2/2021 14:53

Holding losses for years is a very poor use of capital, its only a matter of time until a loss grows too big to recover from. Thats how bearings failed

[trader536] 24/2/2021 14:51

Stupid - Look at where you bought at, then look at where I bought at and ask yourself who is making the most efficient use of their capital? Holding that loss for 9 years at VLX has obviously caused you emotional and psychological issues. I'm surprised you didn't learn from it. You went on to hold a loss in FRES for two years