Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[trader536] 21/10/2020 16:21

2603 - I’ve popped out for a swift beer, my charting package doesn’t run on my phone will look when I get back. I haven’t looked at HOC since they had to close the mines, I’d be very cautious holding into year end financials, I think they’ll be dire. If metal prices remain high and production is back on track it might be wise to by the dip on poor 2020 results

[bogotatrader] 21/10/2020 15:49

Silver futures up 2.6% at the moment

[2603] 21/10/2020 15:18

Cheers for the charts trader, long term looking very good. took some profits in HOC this morning topped up on KAZ and FRES on the drops. Two of my biggest long term holdings Kaz on the verge of a break out. Trader if you have the time could you put a long term chart of KAZ up Daily and Monthly and let me know you thoughts on the averages. Either on this BB or KAZ.

[trader536] 21/10/2020 15:10

Recover? Look at the long term chart, it's not down, just Fres normal intraday volatility...

[2603] 21/10/2020 14:51

Just keep buying on the dips, today was a good day for topping up. I am more interested in the Silver production and that is still in line, with the silver price forecast to rise over the comming years, the long term profits are going to be very good. No damage done on the chart and I feel this will recover back above £13 if not today, very soon.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/10/2020 13:57

Oh yes, so it did. And you're right (for once), I wasn't paying attention. To your posts. For obvious reasons.

[trader536] 21/10/2020 13:48

If you were paying attention you would have noted the indicators referred to the silver daily price, which is up....

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/10/2020 13:39

Yes - I almost certainly will again, so keeping an eye on them and updating projections. And as suggested pre market by some of us but alas, not all, they are down short term. Good to see your daily indicators working so well. As ever.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/10/2020 13:31

Maybe, today, it has. The ore grades are a good point. Not holding, so it suits me. Anyway, you do know it's going to 3000, don't you? Post 11974 - impeccable source. We have clear evidence of that, and it is more likely to be 4000 or 5000, we are told - one of his aliases said so.

[zicopele] 21/10/2020 13:27

The grade of ore can impact massively the cost of production. Fres is relying on an unexpectedly high grade of silver to boost its output. That probably means it will deteriorate in future. Not a screaming buy and the market has punished poor results

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/10/2020 13:27

Yes - I as referring to them being independent of the metals prices. Other factors, including energy costs and exchange rates, impact operating costs.

[zcaprd7] 21/10/2020 13:25

The operating costs are mostly reduced, as they are mostly energy (ie diesel)...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/10/2020 13:02

But isn't the profitability of all miners highly dependent on metals prices? The operating costs are broadly the same whatever the price of gold and silver, for any PM miner, so they are all leveraged in this way? For me, production variations such this, with a 10% or so variation in the middle of a global pandemic is a fantastic performance - not a poor one (it was poor pre pandemic when they consistently failed to meet production expectations). FRES are effectively benefitting from shut-down in other PM miners around the world - getting the production out while benefitting from higher prices; the higher prices being caused (partly) by lower supply globally, especially of the finished refined products. Obviously there is the Dollar printing argument re PM prices too, but reduced supply is a factor. So FRES are (broadly) getting all of the benefit of reduced global supply but none of the downside. Which, I reckon, is why their shares have doubled - along with the elimination of cashflow concerns at the start of the year when looking at projected cashflows (at the lower PM prices) versus future capital investment requirements. From here? not so clear cut, as posted ad nauseam. 600p - screaming bargain. 1200-1300p, not so much. As above, I don't think PE multiples on a business that is so highly geared to PM prices is the way to value these businesses; the 'E' is such a variable. Reserves (future production) and exploration successes are more a factor than in 'normal' businesses.

[charlieeee] 21/10/2020 12:24

Well, I bought that recent dip and then sold for a very small gain, anticipating that production would be bad: the website was particularly discouraging. There are plenty of smaller producers out there who pro rata are far more efficient than FRES. It is difficult to justify the market cap where profitability is wholly dependent on the current high metal prices. It seems to be turning its considerable resources into producing assets at a snail's pace and capital needed to reinvest was squandered on dividends. Herredura has hardly shone and will the FRES share of Juanicipio do more than replace the mine closure of Notche Buena? On the same basis, I missed the meteoric rise in July, when the market overlooked the poor production, but I do wonder if it will be so forgiving this time?

[trader536] 21/10/2020 11:57

They're not "all" 200 quid. Remember you made a nice £22 profit on BP?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/10/2020 11:35

But not (one of the best performers) since 21st September, oddly. There was a nice dip below 1200 afterwards when I bought a few back and sold them again (for £200 quid profit, obviously, all of my 'trades' are for £200 quid profit, I'm told). Rude not too. But currently not holding any.

[trader536] 21/10/2020 11:24

Shut up you tit. How's the CEY / FRES competition looking? You've gone quiet about that recently, post up the figures for comparison I need a laugh

[plat hunter] 21/10/2020 10:50

Yeah but it's one of the best performers on my list since the 8th May lol

[pete160] 21/10/2020 10:33

Fres reports lower quantities and lower grades - they seem to copy and paste the same for every update.It's only because the commodity prices, which luckily they have no control over, are bullish that people stick with it.

[trader536] 21/10/2020 09:41

lol look at the silver price you pillock

[kennyp52] 21/10/2020 09:37

Long term production problems not good . Consistently reporting lower grades . Staffing issues . Security problems . Overvalued substantially IMO following this latest poor RNS .

[diggybee] 21/10/2020 09:18

Probably not a bad dip to buy some more. Precious metals and cryptos look on the verge of another little shuffle? Unless there's no stimulus deal etc etc.

[maywillow] 21/10/2020 08:54

Frank Prenesti Sharecast News 21 Oct, 2020 08:26 Fresnillo cuts FY gold production guidance South American miner Fresnillo cut full year gold production guidance due to coronavirus-related disruption and lower ore grades. Silver production guidance for the full year remained in the range of 51m – 56m ounces. Third quarter production fell 2.3% to 13.3m ounces (including Silverstream), driven by a lower ore grade and volume of ore processed at Fresnillo. The company on Wednesday said gold production was now expected to be in a range of 745,000 - 775,000 ounces, down from 785,000 - 815,000 previously forecast, citing a reduced number of workers at its Herradura mine due to Covid-19 preventive measures, lower-than-expected ore grades and restricted access to deeper areas at the Noche Buena mine. Gold production in the quarter fell 6.3% quarter on quarter to 172.7koz due to the lower overall speed of recovery and ore grade at both Herradura and Noche Buena. Quarterly attributable by-product lead and zinc production decreased 6.4% and 1.5% respectively in the third quarter from the second, driven primarily by lower ore grades at Fresnillo, the company said.