Forterra Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 27/7/2023 08:32

Results and current share price seem to reflect current conditions. The former is natural, the latter a bit blinkered IMO. In the future conditions are far more likely to improve than deteriorate, and efficiencies are likely to improve markedly now the new factory is almost up and running, so I am happy to hold at this price.

[hamhamham1] 27/7/2023 07:11

H1 RESULTS

• Group revenues for the period of £183.2m, a decrease of 17.8% relative to the prior year (2022: £222.8m)

• Resilient H1 result broadly in line with management expectations delivered against a backdrop of challenging trading conditions

• Adjusted EBITDA of £31.1m (2022: £46.1m) and adjusted PBT of £19.2m (2022: £37.3m)

• Statutory EBITDA of £30.0m (2022: £53.0m) and statutory PBT of £18.1m (2022: £44.2m)

• Selling prices have remained firm despite competitive market conditions, with cost base also remaining stable

• Progressive signs of market improvement seen in May and June

• Strong and flexible balance sheet with a net debt before leases of £50.1m (2022 year end: £5.9m) which is below 1x adjusted EBITDA on a last 12 months (LTM) basis

• Interim 2023 dividend of 2.4 pence per share (2022: 4.6 pence) declared in line with established 55% pay-out ratio

[edmundshaw] 11/7/2023 10:32

Also added a bit at 150p. Actually, I sold a few yesterday to add to Ibstock as I thought Ibstock a bit cheaper relatively, so that worked out well!! :))

[buoycat] 11/7/2023 08:54

I'm a long term holder here, since I believe bricks have a long term future. Topped up today at 150p.

[creditcrunchies] 29/6/2023 13:11

Forterra I meant lol I don't know where Fortuna came from

[creditcrunchies] 29/6/2023 13:10

I watched this investment analysis of the brick trade in the UK the likes of Marshalls is more reliant on household discretionary spending but Fortuna is 50% repeat maintenance contracts, 30% housebuilders, 20% other. So revenues are not affected so much by cost of living crisis and housebuilders

[essentialinvestor] 26/6/2023 15:18

Appreciate the view.

[edmundshaw] 26/6/2023 15:15

EssentialInvestor, yes the dividend may be a bit lower for one year, but as long term investor I am more interested in the long term yield. Stocks will need replenishment at some point, and an awful lot of housebuilding still needs to be done. Efficiencies and high barriers to entry should protect the long term earnings potential IMO...

[essentialinvestor] 26/6/2023 13:56

Edmund, to expect the same payout for the next financial year may be optimitic,
I just don't see it, but no crystal ball etc.

[rcturner2] 26/6/2023 13:53

Looks like it hit 154p in 2020.

[essentialinvestor] 26/6/2023 13:49

Can anyone confirm what the 2020 share price low was, thanks.

[edmundshaw] 22/6/2023 15:03

Agreed this is a bargain. We are now pretty much at the price at the bottom of the 2020 pandemic fear slump, on a PER of under 7 and a yield of 6% or so. 6 weeks after a pretty positive trading statement, too.

Housing and brick needs are not going to go away, and while people may run stocks down a bit, and demand may drop, most of the effect will be felt by brick importers.

With high barriers to entry and only three large suppliers (I own the two UK listed ones), there is not much room for things to go wrong barring some kind of catastrophe that would melt everything else too...

[bbmc] 21/6/2023 18:17

I keep thinking how many bricks and blocks will be needed in Ukraine eventually. Also With the impending change of government here as well, social housing will receive a boost I'm sure. All of which may offset some of the sentiment of the current mortgage crisis/uncertainty. If people don't move they tend to extend. These guys are well positioned in a number of ways including controlling their energy costs and at these sort of levels I could see someone trying to get a good company on the cheap. Time will tell.

[m_kerr] 21/6/2023 17:49

back in the bargain bucket now. remember any slowdown in building activity means catching up will be needed later on.

[creditcrunchies] 16/6/2023 20:42

You're actually better off buying the exdiv price it always drops further than the Divi before it finds a bottom

[21ant] 15/6/2023 19:40

Why do the last 2 updates show you have to be on the register on 16th June? Today is 15th? Hope that was an ex-div drop today

Dividend

· As previously announced, subject to approval at next week's AGM, we expect to pay a final 2022 dividend of 10.1 pence per share on 7 July to shareholders on the register as at 16 June 2023

[block4gooner] 15/6/2023 08:47

Yes You would need to br a holder yesterday though with pay day July 7th

[t-trader] 15/6/2023 08:32

Ex divi today 10.1p

[dope007] 16/5/2023 09:08

Difficult enviroment but management seem to have done well. Happy to sit on the sidelines and watch for now. I would suggest these may well drift and Ex divi drop won't be recovered easily in the short term. Need to see solid signs of housing recovery, but hope to buy in lower within the next few months depending on general housing mkt newsflow

[edmundshaw] 16/5/2023 08:42

Sounds about what I was expecting. Housebuilding should take off again later this year, so I am phlegmatic about the current weakness.