Forterra Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 06/4/2023 15:36

8.3% yield is staggering. Added some more here, but holding off on big purchases for now as there is clearly a lot of selling (or shorting), so even better prices may be on the cards... Not using leverage so I can wait patiently. Not sure any shorters will really be keen to pay an 8.5% yield in a couple of months...

[edmundshaw] 06/4/2023 10:23

From the Telegraph: Full article at


The construction sector continued to expand in the UK for a second straight month [...]. The S&P Global/CIPS UK construction PMI index stood at 50.7 in March, down from 54.6 in February but above the 50.0 mark which separates expansion from contraction.

Housing activity was the main reason for the slowdown, decreasing sharply to 44.2.

The rate of decline was the fastest since May 2020, with survey respondents often citing fewer tender opportunities due to rising borrowing costs and a subsequent slowdown in new house building projects."

But I believe brick imports will suffer primarily, and I reckon the slowdown will be relatively short-lived as there as a serious housing shortage in the UK still.

[gswredland] 05/4/2023 16:31

I was wondering that Rudder
Thanks to everyone for a decent messaging board here. No back biting

[rudder] 05/4/2023 16:16

150? Heaven forbid!

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2023 16:07

Added a small amount, however may be wise to expect a couple of weaker trading statements this year and possibly in to next.

Very significant operational gearing, small volume changes can result in a large impact on the P&L.

[rudder] 05/4/2023 15:47

Not till 15th June.

[gswredland] 05/4/2023 15:29

When does it go ex dividend please guys?

[rudder] 05/4/2023 15:18

City boys shorting to pick up cheap shares for the forthcoming divi.

[edmundshaw] 05/4/2023 15:08

?? What is a pre div raid?

[rudder] 05/4/2023 13:46

This drop could be a pre div raid?

[gswredland] 05/4/2023 12:49

Interesting take on IBST V FORT Edmund.
I have taken it as a plus for the former as it is holding up well. On poor days you can see the strong shares.
8% yield here?

[edmundshaw] 05/4/2023 12:17

@Rudder: if you look at recent results, you will see that most of the energy costs have been hedged for 2023; further, Forterra will be (i) starting up a more energy efficient plant this year and (ii) is planting solar panels to reduce the energy price burden.

[edmundshaw] 05/4/2023 12:15

This has fallen quite a lot relative to Ibstock. I have swapped some of my Ibstock stock for Forterra stock in response... I also added some Forterra as we are approaching a faintly absurd 8% yield (more than 8% if you look past last year's final dividend which has yet to go ex-div).

[rudder] 02/4/2023 08:54

Energy price issues. Must be high cost producing bricks.

[21ant] 24/3/2023 10:35

This has to be becoming a great buying opportunity. Fundamentals are all good, just being dragged down by the market. Covid low was only in the 160's, dividend in tact and demand for products is there. I'm avg. around 220 so might be time to top up. I think 250 is a fair short term valuation

[21ant] 09/3/2023 07:39

Yep pretty solid results

[rcturner2] 09/3/2023 07:21

Excellent results from FORT today.

[tole] 27/1/2023 07:36

Forterra valuation 'undemanding' in the opinion of Peel HuntPeel Hunt has upgraded brick manufacturer Forterra (FORT) on its low valuation, despite a slowdown in the housing market.Analyst Sam Cullen hiked his recommendation from 'add' to 'buy' but lowered his share price target from 300p to 250p after a full-year trading statement yesterday came in slightly ahead of expectations but showed the outlook for this year remains uncertain.The shares jumped 5.4% to 216.5p in morning trading. They have rallied nearly 15% in the past month but have fallen 11% over one year.'The volume outlook for 2023 remains somewhat uncertain, but the balance between supply and demand should be helped by a lack of inventory, limited capacity, and a significant import buffer that could be displaced,' Cullen said.'Selling prices are expected to increase further in January, although the housebuilders in particular are pushing back given the falling levels of demand,' added the analyst/Cullen has cut his profit before tax estimate by 18% in both 2023 and 2024 due to falling demand levels, which also reduces the target price. However, he lifted his rating given the valuations which at 10x this year's forecast earnings he said 'remains undemanding'.

[rcturner2] 25/1/2023 08:17

Decent update from the company today.

[elsa7878] 18/1/2023 09:12

Buy under 200 and sell over 300 looking at the chart....

[m_kerr] 02/1/2023 13:48

supply is very tight, and well matched to demand nowadays EI, lots of plant closures since the GFC, and the industry expect that in downturns, a reduction of imports will reduce volatility of turnover.

the way i view it, it generates lots of cash over rolling 5-10 year periods. some lean years, some great years. as long as they don't start gearing up the balance sheet, FORT will be fine. it's a very good, rational industry for shareholders, and shareholders will do fine as long as they take a long term view.

[essentialinvestor] 13/12/2022 10:59

Is there a UK listed brick manufacturer that was on the market during the
last downturn, circa 2008/9?.

I'm not expecting anything like the GFC, but guessing there is
very high operational gearing for this sector, so a small fall in turnover
may have a significant impact on the P&L.


FORT issued a trading statement in late Jan 2022 so may update next month.

IBST put out an update mid January 2022.

[rcturner2] 13/12/2022 07:42

I tend to agree that a PE takeover is unlikely.

However a takeover similat to the take out of Devro is much more likely.

The weakness of the pound makes these kinds of companies attractive to European business. You can go all the way back to Blue Circle for another example.

[damanko] 12/12/2022 22:00

EI, agree with some of what you wrote. Travelling across this little country, each and every housing construction site I pass on my walks, I see pallets of Forterra bricks. Enough said, for me.

d.