Forterra Share Discussion Threads

[npp62] 02/9/2020 11:46

Interesting little step up?

[tole] 21/8/2020 15:03

Looks like those large trades earlier have cleared a bit of a stock here.

[edmundshaw] 08/8/2020 22:29

Also sold at around 340p, but started buying backi in too early. Still, only 12% under water here which feels OK providing we get a proper bounce next year...

[npp62] 08/8/2020 15:23

I'm with you boys. You're not in this room alone. Holding for the recovery which will come... If the world ends then who will give a monkeys about share prices anyway ;-)

[damanko] 06/8/2020 22:26

Bonsoir Thrump.

I find it difficult to disagree with much of what you say/post. Selling half my holding at 3.35ish after the Boris bounce in December seems like a very good choice...

I'll look forward to some positive posts, as and when they're deserved. Take care yourself, happen bump into you one market day in Pontorson… (about 10 miles from my little stone hovel.


A la prochaine.


d.

[thrumptasious] 06/8/2020 16:02

Bonjour Damanko - I guess I do appear to be a little grim reaper esc, however like most posts mine are subjective and it really depends on how the recipient reads or interprets them. For example the above post is perhaps a little more positive about Ibstock than it is Forterra.

Generally I think my posts albeit not to everyone taste have been quite accurate in their content and most of what I have tabled has come to fruition.

I gave my humble opinion about waiting for the 1/2 year results to be published - I would say this isn't particularly bad advice. I mentioned a few months ago that I thought the share price may bottom out at this point. From therein the share price may improve (again putting a positive spin on the situation).

That said I do look forward to writing more positive posts when the time arises during these unprecedented times.

Nonetheless its certainly food for thought - In the meantime take care

Regards T

[damanko] 06/8/2020 12:56

Thrump - have a think about my question: Have you ever posted a positive post...?

Just a thought, and regards.

d

[thrumptasious] 06/8/2020 10:29

Forterra results will follow soon - I think Ibstock is a much better managed company

[edmundshaw] 06/8/2020 09:00

Ibstock H1 out today. Operational gearing has led to a big loss, but current trading is not too bad.

[thrumptasious] 05/8/2020 16:02

Personally I would wait for the 1/2 year results to be published - I suspect these will not make for good reading and as a result could adversely affect the share price further.

[sphere25] 05/8/2020 12:20

Sentiment beaten down enough here to allow a bounce?

Price is miles off pre-C19 highs as well as an enormous 22% off the recent placing price of 195p.

You don't often see that in this market, it's clearly bad but I just wonder if it is too bearish now in terms of a short term play.

Taken a few at 153p. Stop at just under 150p if the market still has some bears to sell out.

[loki74] 31/7/2020 17:28

The Bison precast factory at swadlincote was never designed for residential properties, the ability was available but on a much smaller scale.

It was purely designed for commercial properties,as we have all seen in the past ten years government policies always lean towards house building with no consideration for local schools hospitals or doctor's surgery's. This has been more telling during the recent pandemic.

Don't get me wrong, it's ok to build new housing as long as infrastructure runs alongside it.

I'm sure you'll agree that this is sadly not the case nationwide.

[lefrene] 31/7/2020 09:24

Thrumptasious, I guess it's always plain with hindsight, but at the time of that purchase the world looked a very different place, and growth was being pursued. They have now swiftly got to grips with the world we are currently in and would seem set to make it through and survive the bad times, they didn't just bury their heads in the sand. I said "well run" because they got on and did the necessary, although it doesn't hide the Bison error. My guess is that the building industry is going to have a hard time for quite some while. The only contact I have in new build is someone I know who for at least the past decade has been providing cleaning services to a number of building companies. His people go and do the final clean up and presentation before the keys are handed over to the first owners. That work is now about 20% of the level of this time last year. Luckily for his business, care homes have become a big source of income, as hotels and restaurants have hit the buffers.

[truthbetold] 31/7/2020 09:08

Word on the street is that there is a shortage of brick and pavers. That is always good news for brick pricing. The high brick prices led to the rapid increases in ebitda for the 2 major brick businesses in 2014/2015, followed by their buy outs and subsequent IPOs.

[truthbetold] 31/7/2020 09:05

Bison was always a difficult business - and had been for sale for quite some time.

[npp62] 08/7/2020 12:40

Sunak on his feet. Are we getting lower or removed stamp duty?

[thrumptasious] 06/7/2020 16:03

It's nice to see Forterra CEO Stephen Harrison's siblings capitalising on the lower share price last Friday - they purchased their shares at a really good price. In fact it appears that most of the BOD had a dabble on the 02nd July - I don't recall seeing any RNS distributed for a number of these transactions. They probably just got in before the 1/2 year closed period approaches

Stay safe everyone

[thrumptasious] 04/7/2020 18:33

Lefrene you mention in your blog above (191) that Forterra seems to be a well run company, they spent 20 million acquiring the Bison business at Swadlincote just a couple of years ago. It seems that as prospective buyers they may not have completed a comprehensive appraisal to establish its commercial potential and liabilities(Due Diligence).

That said it's history now and their Hollowcore factory is set to close - It's a large site and will be costly asset to the Forterra business even when mothballed or indeed closed. They do of course have the option of selling however if they ever did I suspect they wouldn't get anywhere near what they paid for it.

A well run business - I'm sure there are many share holders ,private investors and the poor souls that are losing their livelihoods whom may think differently

Just my humble opinion and written without predjudice

[lefrene] 03/7/2020 21:55

m-kerr, I feel they are being circumspect, no one knows how this surge of money creation is going to work out, if inflation suddenly takes off we could see rapidly rising interest rates to head it off. They have placed themselves to ride out bad times, and yet also prepare for a recovery coming out of the bad times. Taking on more debt would have been riskier than issuing more equity. The share price is falling because the market is anticipating less capital available for mortgages, due to unemployment, and lenders currently reducing their range of lending 'products', and hiking minimum deposit requirements..

[m_kerr] 03/7/2020 18:30

the £55m is what was raised in the placing, my point is that they could have gone £55m into debt instead. it's a shame for previous shareholders, as a part of the company has been sold for around half the pre covid valuation.

[npp62] 03/7/2020 15:38

Which all sounds great... Meanwhile back at the ranch... the share price is falling like a stone!

[edmundshaw] 03/7/2020 15:13

Why are you adding the placing proceeds to the net debt? The reasons for the placing are given as follows:

The net proceeds from the Placing will enable Forterra to:

-- maintain a strong balance sheet that can support the Group's continued investment programme, including the completion of a new brick manufacturing facility at Desford in Leicestershire, which is expected to generate attractive returns over the medium term and position the Group to benefit from the long-term growth in the housing market;

-- benefit from an accelerated recovery in the housing market but also withstand a range of downside scenarios as a consequence of COVID-19; and

-- secure a refinancing of existing bank facilities which provides (i) an extended maturity by two years to July 2024; (ii) an increase in the facility of GBP20 million to GBP170 million; and (iii) a package of covenant relaxations

I do not read this as aiming simply to maintain net debt at the same level.

[m_kerr] 03/7/2020 12:34

net debt is about £83 million - in the firms first published results in 2016 it was £119m. could a rights issue have been avoided? £55m + £83m = £138m, which is a high for comfort, but with suspending dividends (which would have saved about £20m a year), could have been manageable in the medium term.

[lefrene] 03/7/2020 12:20

There could well be a government sponsored building surge, not only to provide much needed housing but also to create much needed jobs of the sort that actually add to the common wealth. If that becomes apparent then it will be good for FORT, but while they wait for HM Gov inspiration, they can now remain solvent.

[edmundshaw] 03/7/2020 12:13

Lefrene, good comments. I am encouraged that Forterra has got their placing away soon and at a relatively small discount to the pre-placing price, and I have added a tad more than the equivalent of my share of the placing at a 10% discount to it.

I am reasonably bullish for the medium term, not too worried that the short term hit to the business is impacting the price.

I think the government is learning to learn from other countries in reacting to COVID - so am hopeful they can avoid any large second wave. I think the COVID problems will be solved well within a year and then the country has to work back to normality, but I am confident we shall, ceteris paribus...