Forterra Share Discussion Threads

[thrumptasious] 20/3/2020 16:20

Edmundshaw - happy to have your attention here and thanks for the character assassination, Wait for the pending announcement - manufacture will cease at a number of plants as mentioned and livelihoods are at risk.

[edmundshaw] 20/3/2020 12:32

Thrumptasious something of a perma-bear here for 6 months. Only stock on which he comments. He also made allegations about Forterra last year but nothing the company has said since bears them out. I'd be very wary of this poster's comments...


UK Housing Shortage - Post 115

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 20 Mar 2020 12:00

Thrumptasious

NPP62 - I suspect that there will be an announcement soon as Forterra like to keep the city informed. All starts week commencing 30 March. Trade
UK Housing Shortage - Post 112

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 19 Mar 2020 15:05

Thrumptasious

The construction industry is going to be hit hard over the next few months - It is rumoured that Forterra are closing all of their manufacturing
UK Housing Shortage - Post 88

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 06 Feb 2020 07:19

Thrumptasious

Thanks D - I 100% agree with you that the share price has been good over the last 6 months - Nothing personal on my part other than seeing what was
UK Housing Shortage - Post 86

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 04 Feb 2020 13:32

Thrumptasious

Some Key personnel are leaving the Forterra Bespoke business - I am of the opinion that purchasing the Bison business was a BIG mistake on Forterra's
UK Housing Shortage - Post 85

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 23 Jan 2020 00:41

Thrumptasious

Forterra masonry business is going through an extremely difficult time, mainly driven by poor outputs which in turn is affecting their ability to
UK Housing Shortage - Post 76

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 22 Oct 2019 07:55

Thrumptasious

The trading update is disappointing considering most other precast businesses are thriving at the moment in part due to Bison Precast inability to
UK Housing Shortage - Post 71

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 12 Aug 2019 18:01

Thrumptasious

Hi Damanko - I sold a large number of Sirius Minerals shares a day before the shares plummeted to single figures (I got caught out earlier this Year).
UK Housing Shortage - Post 69

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 09 Aug 2019 21:24

Thrumptasious

e
UK Housing Shortage - Post 68

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 09 Aug 2019 21:24

Thrumptasious

I personally don't think Forterra will hold onto their Precast business in the long term. Their CEO (Harrison) stated shortly after the Bison
UK Housing Shortage - Post 66

FORT Forterra Plc
Author: Thrumptasious Posted on: 04 Aug 2019 16:06

Thrumptasious

Thanks Husbod - Forterra are in he process of making redundancies within their Precast bespoke business (Bison), they are clearly looking at cutting

[thrumptasious] 20/3/2020 12:00

NPP62 - I suspect that there will be an announcement soon as Forterra like to keep the city informed. All starts week commencing 30 March. Trade Unions will have no doubt been notified.

[damanko] 20/3/2020 00:18

Thrump is almost certainly correct. Each and every construction site is waiting for one person to declare they have the virus, once that happens the site will close. Until further notice. Whatever 'further notice' means.

None of us know, or has any idea what any of this stuff means.

Just keep the faith, if you're able to.

[npp62] 19/3/2020 21:09

Where have you read this? Care to share the source?

[thrumptasious] 19/3/2020 15:05

The construction industry is going to be hit hard over the next few months - It is rumoured that Forterra are closing all of their manufacturing plants for the next month potentially placing many jobs at risk. There have already been a number of job losses in their precast business, with key and experienced employees having many years service leaving the business.

[npp62] 18/3/2020 12:22

Tick up in a sea of red... hmmmm

[m_kerr] 16/3/2020 22:08

i like forterra, well run business in an oligpolistic market with high barriers to entry. fly in the ointment is that it's a cynical one. they seem to have burnt through shareholders funds on the bison precast business though.

'This overriding importance of balance sheet equity growth, not many investors realise that, it was Ben Graham's most important lesson and yet it is rarely discussed now. Fort is a compelling buy, no doubt about that, and an honest up front business as well, the management talks to shareholders straight, just what I like to see.'. bogdan bratislav. do you know what graham said about cyclical companies? he didn't value them on PE ratios when times are good, he looked at average earnings over a business cycle. we don't have figures for forterra, but a quick google reveals 20% compound volume falls from 2007-9 when it was hanson brick. and about 600 staff redundant and sites mothballed / closed, that's just from one article. i think over a 10-15 year period, it will deliver plenty of cash, just that it's not going to be steadily increasing profit year in and year out.

[pugugly] 12/3/2020 12:24

Carnage seems to have reached FORT- Not so much I suspect COVID19 but the miserable wet weather - storm after storm - flood after flood after flood - Ground sodden - It must (imo) make life very difficult on building sites and progress far slower than planned - Hence usage rate of bricks dropping- PLUS no major specific help that I could see for domestic housing in the Budget - Hospitals and Infrastructure - big users of cement, concrete and steel - not bricks. However pull back starting to look interesting provided revenue not hit too badly by the weather. share price 247/249 at the moment.

[npp62] 26/2/2020 12:48

Holding up well considering the carnage in the rest of the market, especially airlines etc. I'm pretty much out of everything except FORT and COST until the dust settles. When I think there will be plenty of opportunities out there!

[npp62] 21/2/2020 10:07

Thanks damanko. That sounds like my kind of logic :-)I'm quite glad it's a quiet board. Slow burn continues. I'm in Paris with her indoors at the moment so will respond properly when I get back.

[damanko] 20/2/2020 17:58

NPP62,

Have faith, there are not just the 2 of you (in terms of posts...) on this thread.

Since starting the thread 4 years ago I've been surprised (and perhaps relieved) that rampers, the usual suspects and various others have stayed away. And surprised even more that not many 'proper' private investors seem to have joined the party.

To reiterate some stuff I wrote years ago here: Britain needs houses. Houses need bricks. All new housing developments use a certain amount/proportion of Forterra's product.

About this rocket science... A buying price of c£1.70 shortly after flotation in 2016 doesn't make me too unhappy.

d.

[bogdan branislov] 20/2/2020 11:35

MGNS results today. Despite a strong run, as shown by the post on the MGNS board, MGNS is still selling very cheaply. The growth in balance sheet equity over the year, given the challenging sector backdrop, is remarkable. The cash adjusted PE is just down into single figures, despite the balance sheet strength and growth prospects. Bogdan

[npp62] 19/2/2020 12:42

Quite a lengthy post? But informative as always!?... possibly posted about 8:30 ish last night? Yes I can see it

[bogdan branislov] 19/2/2020 11:59

npp62 - did my post of 18 Feb show up. i can't see it but sometimes that is what happens on this board, i.e. I can't see my own post but others can. Can you see my post from 18 Feb?

[brummy_git] 19/2/2020 06:38

All the latest building product valuation multiples and KPIs can be downloaded from here, including FORT

[npp62] 18/2/2020 15:46

BB Just ordered the book you recommended. Value investing.

[npp62] 17/2/2020 10:49

I hear what you're saying and it does make sense. I'll tell you what doesn't make sense though. Why do we appear to be the only ones on this board? Not that it bothers me at all.. in fact it makes a nice change from some of the awful behaviour on some of the other boards!

[bogdan branislov] 16/2/2020 10:17

CSP is still my largest holding, but has had quite a run and I will probably top slice a little if we reach or approach 700 pence and progressively so thereafter. CSP is still a clear buy but I would evenly buy between CSP, MGNS, LGEN and GLE, given you already have FORT and COST. GLE has a very strong business model, grows very dependably, is highly cash generative, divi cover goes into shareholder funds. LGEN has a very low PE of c10, has consistently grown at c10% pa, is forecast to do again for each of the next 2 years, has a divi of c5%, which is very well covered, the divi cover goes into shareholder funds year after year - compelling and for once IC and the DT both agree with me. If CSP appeals then that makes sense, but I would definitely buy evenly between those four stocks in addition to COST and FORT.

[npp62] 15/2/2020 09:14

BB, I'm certainly going to have to read that again! I'm going to order Glen Arnold's value investing as suggested. Sounds good. I've only ever read The Naked Trader, and that was quite a few years ago now. By the way I bought a few COST yesterday and will go for CSP next.

[bogdan branislov] 14/2/2020 13:52

np..62 - My primary influence in stock picking is he writings of Peter Lynch. Glenn Arnold's value investing gives a good analysis of the value investing approach of several investors including Lynch - that book is well worth a read, a good starting point, although the final third of the book is less useful, it is the analysis of the investors that is the important bit. Like Neff and Lynch I start off with the total return ratio, or what I call the Neff cash/debt adjusted total return ratio. An inverted PEG ratio that factors in the divi and cash/debt. The ratio is the sum of the projected average annual growth for the company for the next 2 years and the current yield, divided by the current (i.e. previous full year, cash/debt adjusted PE ratio). This may sound complex but it is not. If a company is projecting 12% growth in the current year and 8% the year after, the average is 10%. If the current yield is 3, then the top of the equation or the total return is 13. I take the cash debt as a percentage of market cap. Now, assessing debt as a proportion of market cap is seen as dangerous, obviously because if a stock is over priced, the debt could be crippling but a high market cap could misleadingly make the debt look safer when it is not. But I am not assessing debt risk at this point, just adjusting the PE accordingly. So if the the net debt is 10% of market cap, then I multiply the PE by 1.1, if there is net cash of 10%, I multiply the PE by 0.9. This makes the bottom half of the equation. Obviously the higher the Neff ratio the better. A figure of 0.5 is around fair price, 0.7 would begin to interest Neff but he had a huge fund to manage and needed more holdings than the private investor, the private investor is looking for a figure of close to or even above 1. Obviously this is just the start, how profits feed into balance sheet equity, or often don't, is the most important consideration of all, but i don't want to overload in one post. For now, is the Neff ratio clear from the above. Bogdan

[npp62] 13/2/2020 08:45

BB, many thanks for your recommendations, I like the look of CSP, MGNS, and COST... Will probably take a modest position in these. Not quite so tempted by GLE or LGEN. I must do some more reading on the fundamentals... for example PE calculations and why they are a good indicator, etc. Just as a matter of interest, I guess you have a mental check list you need to complete, even to a certain level before you decide to invest? Obviously we don't just punt into the darkness. But what do you look for on every occasion?

[bogdan branislov] 12/2/2020 15:21

np.. I have not held Dart since 2013, looks pricey to me now. MPAC, don't know much about it but don't like the numbers at all, no earnings, balance sheet equity going nowhere. Why risk it when you could buy CSP, MGNS, GLE, COST, LGEN, all high quality with real earnings and very under priced.

[bogdan branislov] 12/2/2020 12:14

npp62 - my biggest and most consistent mistake over the years has been taking profits too soon. In c2013, I identified Dart group as the most undervalued stock in the UK, correctly so. Dart was an odd mix of airline operator, travel agent and road haulier. Low single figure PE, consistent annual growth of c15% or more, the crucial balance sheet equity, i.e. shareholder funds grew strongly each year, cash pile was about 85% of market cap I recall, albeit some cash related to forward bookings, i.e. services not yet provided, so adjusting for that the cash was c50% or market cap - compelling. I bought in heavily at around 70p and sold less than a year later having made just over 150% gains. Nice gains, but what happened after I sold is part of the history of this long slow bull market. I should have top sliced, maybe only a third on double bagging and another third on triple bagging. I also bought Barratt heavily for c£1 in 2010 and sold for around £2, early in 2013. Again I should have top sliced each time the stock bagged. You might think that with 14x gains I am constantly raking in profits. Not so, gains seem to come in a rush, most of the time my holdings shunt sideways or drifting downwards. 2010 to 2012 was a particularly poor spell, as was early 2017 until the end of the summer of 2019. If my holdings are building up their balance sheet equity are well run and have solid easy to understand plausible prospects, then I am content regardless of what the share price does in the short term, if the company is building up its equity has good prospects and is cheaply priced then the share price will take care of itself in time.