Forterra Share Discussion Threads

[purplepelmets] 16/5/2023 07:37

Not exactly what i was hoping to read. At least we still get this divi

[essentialinvestor] 27/4/2023 15:59

Bought a small amount of IBST, would guess the
cycle lows may be seen within the next 6-12 months.

[edmundshaw] 27/4/2023 08:15

Solid trading statement from Ibstock today, marginally ahead of expectations and the great majority of energy needs hedged for the year.

[essentialinvestor] 26/4/2023 12:58

Renewed weakness in many cyclical stocks over the last week or so on expectations of a H2 slowdown, whether that's valid or not..

[purplepelmets] 26/4/2023 08:09

Nice results from Brickability sales well up yoy

[dope007] 25/4/2023 10:15

Keeping an eye on these with a view to adding them to my ISA. Not buying yet as I think there is more weak news from housing to come, but definitely looking at them for a long term but and hold

[gswredland] 24/4/2023 15:37

Thanks for your contribution

[essentialinvestor] 24/4/2023 15:33

IBST started turning down last week.

£1.50 might need a wider market sell off.

[gswredland] 24/4/2023 15:15

Back towards 150?

[purplepelmets] 17/4/2023 08:29

This looks to be heading back above 200p pronto. MBH had an upbeat TU not sure why were expected to disappoint

[essentialinvestor] 13/4/2023 16:25

Although there's a significant difference on the 12 month FORT v IBST respective share prices, their 5 year share price performance is very similar.

[essentialinvestor] 12/4/2023 20:15

Ed, thanks, yes read when recently looking at FORT again. Perhaps there is no hard and fast answer, all be it there appears to be domestic undersupply.

I attempt to account for downsides when looking at an investment and the only non cyclical factor I could think of is a change in domestic v import dynamics.

[edmundshaw] 12/4/2023 20:01

And

"We know that our customers would rather buy
British wherever possible because we can ensure
provenance and quality supplied directly from
stock, for prompt delivery with lower transportation
costs. These market dynamics leave us ideally
placed to substitute imports with production from
our new brick factory at Desford"

[edmundshaw] 12/4/2023 19:56

Also

"Total UK brick consumption in 2022 is estimated
at 2.5bn bricks of which a record 570m (representing
23% of total market demand) were satisfied by
imports due to a continuing shortfall in domestic
production capacity.
UK housebuilding continues to fall short of
Government targets with 204,061 new build homes
estimated to have been completed in Great Britain
during 2022, a slight increase on the 2021 total
of 201,251 compared to the recently reiterated
Government target of 300,000 new homes annually
across the UK."

[edmundshaw] 12/4/2023 19:55

Not quite an answer, but this from the recent Annual Report:

"We remain confident that Forterra is well positioned
to face these uncertain times. With our new Desford
brick factory now operational, we also expect to
benefit from the industry-leading efficiency this will
offer, manufacturing a range of products ideally
suited to displace imported bricks. We begin the
year with minimal inventory, and are well practised
in managing our capacity utilisation and cost base. "

[essentialinvestor] 12/4/2023 17:11

Important bricks in to the UK currently at record levels.

If anyone could clarify on any pricing differential between imported v domestically produced it would be appreciated.

[purplepelmets] 12/4/2023 11:33

couldn't resist. substantially added

[gswredland] 09/4/2023 09:49

Thanks Edmund

[essentialinvestor] 07/4/2023 23:05

Bricks are also imported, it's not just a question of housing demand, it's whether demand holds up for domestically produced bricks v imported product.

[damanko] 07/4/2023 21:04

RCT, difficult to argue with your post... However I'd add the following caveat:

'Anyone involved in UK housing' - needs to be a well run company.

d.

[rcturner2] 07/4/2023 07:16

In the last 20 years the UK population has increased by 8 million. That is 400k a year almost entirely from inward migration. Even if take the slightly absurd view that migrants will live 4 to a house, we need to build 100k houses a year simply to house people migrating to the UK. Anyone involved in UK housing has a license to print money.

[essentialinvestor] 06/4/2023 17:20

Ed, would tend to agree with you on not buying in quantity atm.

You appear to have a handle on supply dynamics,
So if longer term need for
domestically produced bricks remains strong
then this should pay off nicely given a UK housing shortage.

My own concern (besides cyclicality) is could
there be a situation where imported bricks
erode demand for domestic product?,
potentially lower cost imports etc..

[edmundshaw] 06/4/2023 17:08

Last two dividends are 4.6p interim paid on 14-Oct-22 10.1p final to be paid on 07-Jul-23. Total for 2022 is 14.7p.

I'll let you do the maths based on the share price of your choice! :))

[essentialinvestor] 06/4/2023 15:56

Had a little nibble, but we've not seen FORT trade through a UK recession, eh.

[gswredland] 06/4/2023 15:55

ADVFN has the yield at5.6% although probably incorrect Edmund
Looks like it is going lower!