Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 26/4/2022 09:58

FSJ RNS yeeterday on 300k new share options for execs to vest in 2025 based upon 2024 performance - 2 years from now.

I don't normally pay much attention to the detail of share award criteria regarding them as a salary topup system with the thresholds generally set far too low - but in this case it is very clear on the criteria and makes useful reading for an insight into the boards current assessment of future eps.

The criteria cover eps 50% of award, total shareholder return 30% and ROCE 20%.

Below 66p eps zero shares vest. From 66p to 76p a sliding scale from 25% to 100% vest.

Similarly for TSR cf FTSE250. Below FTSE250 median zero vest. From median to upper quartile 25% to 100%

and for ROCE below 11% zero vest. 25% - 100% from 11% to 13%

If the current challenging environment extends - then 66p eps is an ok result and 76p is a modest improvement. I'm ok with that.

At a multiple of 12x (well below fishers historic multiple of 20x) that corresponds to a shareprice of 792p to 912p in two years time. Over 2x return on current share price

As it happens I expect more - because I expect the environment for renewables, nuclear, defence, decommissioning and even O&G to improve. My share price target for 2024 is 1200p

These criteria seem well set, the award is modest abd most of all its very clear. Best of all it gives some insight to board thinking right now - that 66p eps and 11% roce is their base case. Below that management get null points!

Its hard to find funds right now - as I live off my investments - but when funds allow I will continue to add below 380p as I rarely see profitable companies with good products in growing markets at such low valuations. Seems mispriced to me,

cheers all,

[kinwah] 29/3/2022 11:27

I've played this stock in the past when it was a highly-rated growth stock which only ever seemed to go up. I think some fund managers are still stuck with it in their portfolios from those days and are taking opportunities to exit whenever there is some volume. There are undoubtedly some good businesses in the FSJ portfolio and I can see corporate interest in acquiring them. It's probably too early but I've started tucking a few away for an eventual recovery/break-up. £3.60 seems a bargain compared to the £15 or so at which I exited last time.

[porsche1945] 28/3/2022 09:20

Buy US mega cap while its on offer. Both Goog and Amzn have announced share splits, that will 25pc on the shares over 12 months anyway. Nvidia at under 200, Roblox Affirm Enphase, screaming buys. Why do people keep flogging a dead horse with UK shares? Even UK oil companies trade at a 30 pc discount to European and US rivals. The gap has never closed since brexit, plus sterling in terminal decline which puts off foreign buyers. Its capital destructive scary, uk now a high tax low growth region circling the U bend. The BOE and wheezing fat bunter are worse than hopeless and most of the uk’s sanctions against russia will end up damaging the uk, alot.

[illiswilgig] 14/3/2022 13:53

Hello Boule,

good to hear from you. Optimistic. Hah! Right now that feels a little way off.

Sorry you've been depressed, but then its hard not to be. I have. Hard to be making money in the UK markets over the last few months. Very few will have. I hear a lot of pain and anguish. Emotionally stressing if you live off your investment as I do.

I try not to anchor my expectations to previous prices and losses. That was then and today is different.

I think it was Warren buffett (or someone similar) who said - the stock that lost you money is unlikely to be the one that makes it back for you.

The question I ask myself is always - is the share a good buy now. Would I buy it if I didn't already own it?

For the me the answer is yes. You have to make your own mind up. I have been buying recently from 290p but stopped at 390p as the price ramped up. It's on my buy list at the moment. But so are a lot of other shares! Spoilt for choice. And no funds spare.

I think this is the turning point for Fisher. For the business not necessarily for the share price. Though if the H1's don't meet my expectations I may have to change my stance.

I think the opportunity is huge and they have managed to keep the businesses intact.

At the moment my longer term forecasts are for 1200 - 1400p in 2-3 years. Maybe a little longer if the global situation doesn't improve. That's a long way from today and much lower than the 2000p+ it was some years ago - but its still 3 or 4 times the current price.

Right I'm off to check down the back of the sofa and see if I can find a few more quid to buy some shares,

I may well prove to have been a bit too previous - it wouldn't be the first time - so Don't forget to Do Your Own Research and Good Luck All,

cheers

Illis

[bouleversee] 14/3/2022 12:52

Oh, Illis, what a lovely optimistic temperament you have. I had been feeling very depressed (not just about this) and your rational resume of the state of play at FSJ has lifted my spirits. Let's hope your predictions are correct. Money is not the most important thing but it has been very saddening to see what was a great and profitable company decline in this way so I am hanging on in the hope that FSJ's reputation will be restored and my one time large gains will gradually be clawed back. Renewables are even more essential now and thanks to Mr. P. I think there is justification for regenerating North Sea activity so hopefully there will be more opportunity for FSJ to pick up work. You have provided some cheer; let's hope the good luck follows!

[illiswilgig] 14/3/2022 11:48

Well that was a wild ride. Well done to anyone who sold some at close to the £5 - seems to have been a classic case of buy the rumour and sell the news.

Perversely I am quite reassured by the results. Given the context.

Only 3 months ago the share price was below £3, the risk of a placing seemed high - and the statement that they would remain within the covenants always seems to promote the risk of the reverse.

The underlying results were as expected. Revenue and operating profit were in line with my (reduced) expectations and the net debt/ebitda as well so the headroom on the covenants was also as expected. Which under the circumstances - is a lot better than people were expecting just a few months ago. Not great - but I do find it reassuring when figures are consistent. It's a start.

Cash generation was good under the circumstances (delivery and milestones on 4 large projects delayed over the year together with new contract signings). £58m which allowed them to pay down some debt, invest £20m in their growing businesses and reduce net debt by £25m due to the growing cash figure. NB - net debt including leases reduced by only £12m - due to new leases signed on tankers which obscures the progress.

The exceptional write-offs were much larger than I expected. But again the context is important - the CFO, Chairman and 2 new NED's joined in the second half of the year - a fresh set of eyes is good, and I'd be surprised if a new CFO and Chairman were not intending to reset expecations to a level they can meet and likely exceed. As these are mostly non-cash (though the £3.1m litigation charge was a nasty surprise and I'd like to see more detail upon this - and any future expectations) then the written down asset values should help reduce future write-downs and provide a tail-wind of profits in the event of asset sales.

I expect the 4 project milestones to increase cash generation in 2022 as working capital is unwound and accelerate the paying down of debt - which has to be the top priority alongside increasing ebitda and operating profits. I think this much reduces the risk of a placing to raise fresh capital. It would make sense, but the large shareholders, particularly the Sir John Fisher Foundation which is not in a position to participate,are unlikely to support the dilution unless absolutely necessary. And from these figures results its not. I'd prefer they pay the debt right down before returning to paying a dividend, to maximise investment in the business and future growth, but again I expect the large shareholders will be influential in a return to dividends as soon as possible. I'd not be upset provided it doesn't materially affect reducing debt and investment.

I keep an eye on the web-site and monitor the number of vacancies and press releases. Job vacancies have increased recently, either because everyone is leaving or because they are taking on new staff, you choose, and are now running at around twice the recent lows. They've also just chartered am 80m support vessel for their North Sea work this season - which may indicate significant increase in renewable work this season.

It's been a difficult time for Fisher shareholders. I previously stated I expected the share pice recovery to start this spring. I think these results support that but the share price got ahead of itself at 520p last week. It will take a while to get over that - and I imagine that brokers who were caught out are scrambling to reduce their forecasts which won't help. I expect steady progress in the next few months and am looking forward to the H1 trading update.

Cheers and good luck all,

[wunderbar] 10/3/2022 13:21

I decided to exit FSJ today. Reason was very simple. Results were awful, full of write-downs, bad debts, bad acquisitions, litigation costs, underperformance, underestimation of headwinds, not to mention lack of forward guidance. In short, these results were tantamount to a profit warning. Underlying operating profit was £28m. However, Loss before tax was £29m. Notably, Fisher incurred an impairment charge of £29.2m against the company’s marine support and offshore oil divisions. I wasn’t expecting an overall loss and clearly neither was the market hence share price down 23%, -113p @ 386p. What a shocker.

I had high hopes for this stock and it was my intention to hold for at least a year but after reading full year report I just couldn’t find any positives or reason to hold (as hard as I tried). In fact I thought overall tone of the report was very gloomy/negative. As such I decided to bail out.

In my short time as a shareholder it’s been one hell of a volatile ride having initially bought in November @ 370p, Dec @ 308p and Jan @ 405p. I actually sold 30% of my holding on Monday @ 480p as the inexplicable steep rise seemed too good to pass up (with hindsight wish I’d sold the lot). Unbelievably the share price topped out at 527p only yesterday morning! Today I sold the rest of my holding @ 386p. Very galling having a large chunk of my profit wiped out so quickly but given the dire results and magnitude of today’s fall I consider myself very lucky to have come out of this with any profit whatsoever.

I’d now class FSJ as a boom or bust stock. In months/years to come I'll either look back on this share with deep regret for selling out near historic lows or I’ll be breathing a huge sigh of relief should things deteriorate further. As always, time will tell.

My hunch is FSJ at some point will tap shareholders for cash via a rights issue. I certainly don’t see any dividends being paid out in the foreseeable future. Best outcome for shareholders in short/medium term might well be a takeover noting the company is currently valued at only £194m with net debt of £186m. I think the next 12-24 months are going to be critical in determining FSJ’s future.

Peel Hunt have subsequently reduced their financial year 2022 adjusted EPS forecast by 12 per cent to 32.8p, and cut its financial year 2023 projection down by a quarter to £34m. And that seems to be the problem for Fisher, a worrying trend of downward revisions, reduced profits, and a market valuation eroding at an alarming rate.

[bouleversee] 10/3/2022 13:06

Would love to know what Phillis had to say.

[phillis] 10/3/2022 07:48

Good strategic progress”

That should make everyone happy

[our haven] 10/3/2022 07:27

The full year results make for grim reading. Could be a challenging day. Revenue and profit down. Can only hope that the market sees a different outlook.

[greenhat2] 08/3/2022 22:09

sectors: DefenceNuclear Marine Oil and Gas Renewable Energy Mmmmn?

[hamhamham1] 11/2/2022 19:24

It's about change of sentiment, the share price is this low not because of performance but sentiment. If it was performance, it would be 800-1000p. So without sounding rude, sentiment is very important.

[bouleversee] 11/2/2022 19:16

Yes, you rude man, being a long term holder, not a trader. So far on paper only but don't expect me to get excited by that target.

[hamhamham1] 11/2/2022 18:59

A broker upgrade is news you bitter plum, lost money here per chance?

[hamhamham1] 11/2/2022 15:49

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Jefferies raises James Fisher price target to 585 (555) pence - 'buy'

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[roddiemac2] 10/2/2022 12:12

Prelims will be 10/3/22

[spypat] 10/1/2022 13:25

Video starts when FSJ is mentioned:
Share Talk Update Review part 2. Companies 11 to 20
hxxps://youtu.be/4ul9sLihGEI?t=1183

[xxxxxy] 09/1/2022 15:50

Look at this again at 3 ish.But wish the share well though.Like, with caution.

[kfr20] 08/1/2022 01:51

Trading update next week? I see it was around this time last year.

[wigwammer] 07/1/2022 09:19

625p seems highly achievable, at which point I will have doubled my money. Porsche1945 filtered, talks garbage. ATB