Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 15/11/2022 19:04

Bottomfisher - oooops!

finger trouble.

Tou are quite right I wrote down the (adj) eps figures for FSJ rather than the PE!!

No wonder I was quite surprised! More haste less speed.

FSJ
FY21 (adj) eps 57.2p
FY21 PE 5.3x
Forecasts
FY22 (adj) eps 26.4p
FY22 PE 11.6x
FY23 (adj) eps 44.5
FY23 PE 6.85x

Not long to wait now before we find out whether FSJ will hit these (much reduced) forecasts.

cheers

[bottomfisher] 15/11/2022 18:33

Many thanks Illiswilgig for your thoughts on the difference between FSJ and Ashstead Technology. I am a shareholder in both companies, although my heart lies with Fisher (not the best investment test I know). Agree with your point about the problem of FSJ’s large net debt relative to its market cap although a bit less clear about the profit comparisons. According to the Stockopedia figures (not always reliable) FSJ is trading on a p/e of 11.6 times current year’s earnings falling to 6.85 times in 2023, compared with 18 times for Ashstead's 2022 earnings which falls to 15.7 times for 2023. (Both companies have December year ends).

Ashstead’s performance to date look good and it has attracted an impressive list of institutional shareholders. But its appetite for acquisitions makes me a tad nervous, as was the recent placing by its biggest shareholder only days after a bullish write-up by Simon Thompson, the Investor Chronicle’s top share tipster.

[illiswilgig] 15/11/2022 07:46

'Any thoughts on why there is such a difference in the relative share price performance of the two companies?'

I'll have a go. One word.

Debt.

Two words.

Debt and Profits.

Ashtead debt is small relative to market cap 10% Fisher debt is large relative to marketcap > 100%
Ashtead profit forecasts have been rising whereas Fisher profit forecasts have been falling.

Slightly longer comparison.

AT.
Mcap 240m
net debt 22m
revenue (historic) 56m

FSJ
Mcap 154m
net debt 205m
revenue (historic) 499m

Ashtead Technologies is a global subsea equipment rental business. More than likely that James Fisher is a customer of Ashtead.

AT has been growing faster than FSJ in recent years 14% annually over the last 5 years. Whereas FSJ turnover has gone backwards. Slightly.

AT is highly rated (for a bear market) at 54x historic profits and 18x forecast profits for FY22.

FSJ is rated at 57x (historic) profits and 26x (adj) forecast for FY22.

Arguably FSJ is current;y more highly rated than Ashtead?

Rental businesses have been doing well through the last couple of years. James fisher rental business in its offshore business has been its most profitable in this period.

Ashstead has to keep growing fast to justify its current high share price - even faster for the share price to grow.

FSJ has to succeed in its turnaround to justify its current share price and it can rise substantially IF it can fix its problems, return to growth and pay down debt.

At the moment with interest rates on the rise - FSJ share price has been held back by lack of news on recovery and the perception of cashflow being diverted into rising interest payments instead of paying down debt and investing in growth.

Fisher looks the higher reward but is clearly higher risk until there is news on current cashflow and debt.

I couldn't resist it - bought a few more FSJ at recent lows

cheers

[hamhamham1] 15/11/2022 07:03

The share price here climbed strongly from 290p area to 2100p area between 2009 and start of 2020 (covid).
This is not a share which was in decline before covid.

[bouleversee] 14/11/2022 15:52

That's a bit better!

[bottomfisher] 12/11/2022 12:54

The recently floated Ashstead Tecnology (AT), the sub-sea technology service provider, goes from strength whilst James Fisher (FSJ) struggles. Both companies operate in different areas of similar markets. Any thoughts on why there is such a difference in the relative share price performance of the two companies?

[hamhamham1] 12/11/2022 12:19

Who's got a tick, a down tick that is. Yawn, let's see where this is in 18 months then.

[hamhamham1] 10/11/2022 18:50

18 months this will be 1000p IMO.

[hamhamham1] 05/11/2022 12:18

Just hold for a couple of years and it'll be back to over 1000p IMO.
Patience is the hardest thing ;)

[our haven] 05/11/2022 11:23

The possibility of all those new contracts and a re- rating of the share are my guesses, but beyond that I have no insight bouleversee.

[bouleversee] 04/11/2022 18:48

Excellent indeed! What prompted the rise?

[our haven] 04/11/2022 17:24

Excellent day. Re-rating was overdue IMO

[orbit007] 21/10/2022 12:25

It is fairly thinly traded, if you lower your order size it usually gets filled.

Still keeping an eye out for contract wins or disposals here. Price has drifted down last few weeks.

Noticed in the new today that France and Spain are going ahead with building an undersea energy network - this type of work would be great if they can get it.

[linton5] 20/10/2022 14:21

Wont let me trade here

[bouleversee] 29/9/2022 11:59

That must be why the share price has shot up this morning. LOL.

[blue377] 29/9/2022 10:17

Does FSJ do sub sea pipeline repairs, bit of work about at the moment.

[r2oo] 08/9/2022 07:47

We'll if Liz Truss gets her way with increasing North Sea oil and gas that's surely a good sign for FSJ...!

[brucie5] 07/9/2022 08:19

Good coverage on stocko. One to watch, maybe not buy quite yet. I'm not currently holding, since dividend to keep me. But I feel bottom must be hereabouts. Like Scsw, I was just a tad early.

[lloydypool] 07/9/2022 07:42

Debt down from a year ago, cost savings of £3m p.a being targeted, h2 expected to be materially stronger than h1, substantial undrawn credit facilities available which would guide the company through what is obviously tough period and a market cap of 150m with net assets quite a bit higher. All time highs are a long way off but I think the negative is baked in here (not to say the current market couldn’t punish further but I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom).

[r2oo] 07/9/2022 07:21

OuchAt least it seems they are recognising and addressing their problems. A reduction in debt is welcome but still over £170m of it on FY profits of maybe £10m, they will really need to offload some major parts of the business to get that down.Can't see many investors wanting to put their money into this until the debt is less than 3x profit and sales, profit and margins notably increase.

[terminator101] 07/9/2022 06:37

Those results don't look good. Might have 2%revenue increase but profit is down almost 50%. Markets are unforgiving at the moment.

[brucie5] 22/8/2022 12:58

Looks like a return to £3.