Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[garth] 07/1/2022 09:09

Nice rise again this morning. Sentiment certainly seems to be returning. Good to see.

G.

[illiswilgig] 06/1/2022 21:54

bottomfisher - thank you for sharing the cannacord note.

'chastened buyer' - I know the feeling.

I notice that Fisher was top of the leader board again today.

Not unhappy with a target of 625p for the next step, seems reasonable for now and its more than double my recent buys, which will help to dull the pain,


cheers

[roddiemac2] 06/1/2022 20:16

Porsche,

Your modus operandi, constant repetition of an "argument", is a sure sign of unconscious doubts.

White van man.

[bottomfisher] 06/1/2022 18:23

Sharecast news reports: Analysts at Canaccord Genuity slashed their target price on marine engineering services provider James Fisher from 1,375.0p to 625.0p on Thursday but said they remained "chastened buyers" of the stock.

Canaccord said James Fisher had "a challenging 2021", with three profit warnings triggered by a mix of Covid-19 pandemic-related demand slowdown, marine oil and gas slowdowns, specific customer challenges, and "a broader sense of the long-standing particularity of Fisher being lost".

However, while the Canadian bank stated it was shifting forecasts, updating earnings to "more straightened circumstances" and "taking a more cautious view on dividends and cash generation", it also highlighted that the key markets Fisher was exposed to were "starting to improve".

"In particular, we see strong upside from the wave of activity in offshore wind, mostly going into 2023, and in the shorter term from recovering oil and gas markets globally. One early sign of this - the settlement of a dispute with a customer in Mozambique (we believe a group led by Total) - resulted in an extraordinary 30% jump in the share price in the twilight zone of trading between Christmas and New Year," noted the analysts.

"Given the softer markets, and the need to rebuild trust, we are moving our target multiple down to a much more sober 7x/6x 22/23E EV/EBITDA (at the peak of its pomp Fisher used to enjoy a double-digit EBITDA multiple) and our price target moves accordingly, to 625.0p (was 1,375.0p.) We remain chastened BUYers."

[bouleversee] 06/1/2022 08:59

Indeed. Up a bit today and hopefully it will keep going in that direction.

[blue377] 06/1/2022 07:52

No idea what value it adds to the company but it can only be more good news for the share holders.

[bouleversee] 05/1/2022 20:15

3 cheers for that! Let's hope for a happier new year so far as FSJ is concerned. Anyone have any idea of what that adds to the value of the company, assuming they manage them well?

[bouleversee] 05/1/2022 20:15

3 cheers for that! Let's hope for a happier new year so far as FSJ is concerned. Anyone have any idea of what that adds to the value of the company, assuming they manage them well?

[blue377] 05/1/2022 19:59

James Fisher has just won 3 Multi Million 13 - 15year Wind Farm Contracts apparently.

[illiswilgig] 30/12/2021 13:00

1aconic - yes I agree.

Team effort indeed.

well done.

[1aconic] 30/12/2021 08:12

Don't apologise - I wasn't even going to dig myself until your comments inspired me to share the workload and see if I could find anything else. Team effort!

The unpaid invoices to April would have been included in underlying EBITDA regardless I think - work done and invoiced. If they thought they weren't going to be paid they'd perhaps be treated as exceptional items and might not move underlying EBITDA at all.

The costs afterwards when they weren't working on the project (that will now be paid) I'm not sure about - that might have been a grey area. Probably explains why the dial on underlying EBITDA hasn't moved.

Accounting intracacies aside, I think it's safe to say that the cash position is a least several million healthier though and the state of the company is!

Afterwards I looked a bit closer at the whole project and the Mozambique insurgence as a result too - a $60 billion project isn't one that's just going to be forgotten about! Might take a while but hopefully the work will eventually restart in the future if things become more stable in the region.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 20:07

1aconic - Ouch! Wrong again. Not doing well today.

Yup. Project not suspended until April21 when Totalenergies declared force majeure. Strange I thought it was last year. Seems a long year I guess. I should have checked before replying.

Which means I don't have a clue.

But I was probably closer with my earlier guess - that work would have been invoiced and paid normally until April - invoices unpaid after that are likely not large enough to shift the dial on the underlying ebitda? The work postponed over the last 8months is likely to be much larger.

sorry for confusion caused, I'll get my coat....

cheers

[1aconic] 29/12/2021 19:09

I do get the impression the Mozabique project is large but after reviewing the last annual and H1 reports myself, I'm not convinced it formed part of the 19.3m provisions.

In the interims:
This division was also affected by the suspension of projects in Mozambique following an insurgency in the region.

That implies (and a couple of other comments) imply that the issues only started in H1 so maybe wouldn't have been one of the three projects that formed the 19.3m provisions in FY20.

But in the Marine Support section it also states:
"suspension of projects in Mozambique due to an insurgency in the local area has adversely affected performance" ... "there are on-going dispute resolution discussions with our clients to seek recovery of amounts contractually due for work completed to date, and this could provide some variability to 2021 performance."

Segmental revenue for Marine Support in H1 was 97.7m. If it's noted as potentially causing some variability to performance it surely suggests that it's a project of notable magnitude?

There's also another note in there about being hopeful to resume the project once the situation stabilizes.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 15:17

1aconic - yes, that is a good point. I think you might well be right there.

On a quick look at the 2020 accounts they declared an impairment of £19.3m against a number of projects where they felt it was necessary. How much of that is against the Mozambique project - who knows. But it might well be a large chunk of it - if not most of it - in which case my previous thinking was way too low.

Thanks for pointing that out,

cheers

[1aconic] 29/12/2021 14:52

Illis - isn't it likely that the settlement would form part of seperately disclosed items anyway and therefore not in the underlying EBITDA figure that guidance is given for? It might be the case that it's just be the ongoing costs (that will now be agreed will be covered) that would no longer be a hit to underlying EBITDA going foreward.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 14:46

Thanks Roddie,

thats my reading as well. Backed up by some googling and it looks as if there is a lot of good will in Southern Africa to get the project back on track again.

Good luck all and here's to a prosperous 2022 - resurfacing if not flying!

cheers

[1aconic] 29/12/2021 14:44

As I said when the CEO put 100k of his own cash in at the start of November, the probabilities of the covenants being breached doesn't seem anywhere near as high as the market is pricing in.

We've now had two concrete steps away since then and hopefully that sets us on the road to a brighter place. Even so, we're still well below the 420p that he was willing to stump up. If the market stops pricing this for death, today's move should hopefully look like buttons.

[illiswilgig] 29/12/2021 14:44

'Does anyone know what they were due under this contract?'

No Elsa I don't - I expect that the sums that they settled for are subject to an NDA. I'd be surprised if not!

As they've not increased the ebitda range from 27-32m I'd guess that its less than 5m and in the range £2m-£3m in terms of cash to be received now - with maybe more for 2022 - but more likely a resumption in operations in 2022 which would be much better news.

cheers

[roddiemac2] 29/12/2021 14:35

illis,

"Seems likely there is some movement on the project to cause that?" Yes, it looks like FSJ may be dealing with a postponement , as opposed to a cancellation.

A happy and prosperous New Year to you and all other holders.

[elsa7878] 29/12/2021 14:26

Does anyone know what they were due under this contract? Thanks

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2021 14:20

24 months ago this was 2055p

[r2oo] 29/12/2021 14:18

Looks like a pretty strong rebound, this will also squeeze out the short sellers.

[hamhamham1] 29/12/2021 13:37

Bit of resistance at 396p, but then clear though to double that.