Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 29/3/2023 09:30

Roddie,

Had not seen your message when I wrote mine.

Yes, I think you are right, bank covenants are complicated things which I know little of. I expect that Odyssean will know much more than us - in addition to having the ear of management.

cheers

[bouleversee] 28/3/2023 18:34

Yes, I received that notification and found it somewhat reassuring, too. I'm afraid I don't have a long-term future but I gave my children and grandchildren my certificated
shares quite a while ago and bought some back in my ISA, which I expect are showing a loss but never mind. We'll just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best.

[illiswilgig] 28/3/2023 17:51

Boule,

I didn't mean to appear unduly negative or harsh. To provide some balance James Fisher has a number of good businesses, market leaders in their niches, with significant potential for growth. It had become clear that JFN was not one of them. But you're right it has certainly been a painful journey over the last few years and the turnaround is taking much longer than I'd anticipated.

Interesting that you should ask what the institutional investors think?

Today Odyssean Investment Trust has spent best part of a million quid to buy another 327k shares taking its holding to a round 5%. Odysseans managers are reputedly very shrewd, as is their top shareholder Harwood Capital. I have no doubt that they would sell and go if they thought this was going the wrong way.

I find that reassuring. But they are long-term investors so yet more patience is required..........

cheers

[roddiemac2] 28/3/2023 17:42

boule

Odyssean Investment Trust have increased from 4.35% to 5%.Perhaps they have better info than us.

[bouleversee] 27/3/2023 10:43

Thanks, Illis. Not much to cheer about there! I should think sparks will fly at the AGM whenever it is. I wonder what the institutional holders make of all this, if there are any left. Heart-breaking that things have come to this pass after holding them for so many years. Up a few pence today but flatlining now. Anyone seen any press comment?

Bouleversee (name gets more appropriate every day)

[illiswilgig] 27/3/2023 09:57

Boule, for what its worth:

No I'm not happy with them! Seems to be a rather unnecessary act of self-harm to me.

The statement is - probably deliberately - vague. It's not clear whether getting bank agreement to retaining these guarantees has the potential to be a big and/or costly deal, or whether its more of a formality.

Uncertainty is not good. Hence the sharp fall in share price.

To be clear - this deal selling £8m of tangible assets for £3 - doesn't make a lot of sense unless its financial engineering and there are no details of this to evaluate. Net debt up and risks retained set against reduced losses. Hope it makes sense. But not getting bank approval doesn't lend credibility to it?

Shame, because the trading statement is the same as stated at the time of sale so that's not got worse, and the revenue is ahead of previous expectations. Unfortunately the profit is not - and the company really does need to start generating more profit to get on top of its mountain of debt,

cheers

[bouleversee] 26/3/2023 16:11

Illis - What did you think about their announcement about the accounts being held up for a month and revenue and profits had not risen for 2022? S.p. down 8% at one point on Friday, closed at 5.91% down. Rather worrying.

[illiswilgig] 07/3/2023 15:58

Agreed. They are paying (in retained risk at least) for the VC to take the business off them. I was more than a little sceptical of handing over to a VC but after a quick google and read of the Rcapital website it seems that they are genuine and successful turnaround experts.

Good luck to them. And I mean it, cos if they don't succeed it might well cost FSJ some more. Shame that FSJ could not bring it back to profit before selling - but I hear that the customer (UK government) is busy delaying decommissioning contracts to reduce annual funding at the moment. On that basis probably not a big market for loss-making businesses in the industry.

Given that FSJ are highly limited in capex for their growth businesses - and UK nuclear decommissioning can't be a growth industry right now - it's a hard decision, but most likely a rational one.

cheers

[garth] 07/3/2023 06:59

Topvest,

I thought the same - although they make a point of saying they have safeguards of some sort in place.

G.

[topvest] 06/3/2023 18:30

It's a bit of a Kinovo style disposal with financial support and parent company guarantees in place. Could always come back to bite them unfortunately!

[bouleversee] 06/3/2023 15:28

Thanks, Illis. I was already feeling depressed.

[illiswilgig] 06/3/2023 14:55

Hello Boule, no simple answer from me I'm afraid.

Sold for £3 (which is £1 for each of the 2 trading cos and the holdco as far as I can see).

Good or Bad?

Bad in that its an(other) asset write down which won't improve the balance sheet.

But more good than bad I think in that it removes a complex and underperforming business. Without the losses ebitda increases and removes the need to keep putting more capital in and raising debt levels. It improves the debt covenent situation as well as removing one big problem which has lower prospects than other parts of the company?

Trading update looks just about ok on a continuing basis, in that revenue is above expectations where as profit? Who knows? Probably about in line but its hard to forecast financing and tax.

But most of all I see this as the new CEO getting his feet firmly under the table. Sold off a bunch of testing companies, the Swordfish DSV (For a much better price than the previous sale) and now removed a large non-core (in that its not a marine ) business.

I'm disappointed it wasn't better, but not as much as I am relieved it wasn't worse. Don't think it affects the medium term prospects very much, so now we wait to see how the CEO handles the coming year? The rns didn't waste any time trying to talk up good news, so this was most likely about ditching the past and setting the scene for the future? He won't want another year of write-offs he'll be looking to show good progress by the end of the year? And claim the credit.

I expect the buy the rumour mob will now be selling the news - but I can't see how that wasn't going to happen anyway?

I'll be paying close attention over the next few months. I hope he's successful!

cheers

[alfred] 06/3/2023 12:24

Given it away haven't they? Why couldn't they make the nuclear services division work?
Now a leaner cleaner company if anyone is interested in making an offer.

[bouleversee] 06/3/2023 10:49

Anyone got any views on today's RNS reporting sale of James Fisher Nuclear Holdings and related companies? S.p. down over 5% when I looked a few mins. ago.

[newbold120] 24/2/2023 08:53

Read across from John Wood?

[hamhamham1] 23/2/2023 20:10

Nice finish

[hamhamham1] 20/2/2023 06:32

As another Fisher (Carrie) once said,..
"My The Forth Be With You!"

[bottomfisher] 15/2/2023 13:03

A couple of dates for the diary. FSJ is due to publish its annual results on March 14th and its AGM is set for May 4th.

[bscuit] 01/2/2023 22:16

I had been thinking we were getting back to historic levels but a 12% fall in 2 days isn’t a confidence builder.

[se81] 20/1/2023 13:32

Trying to break through 400p which has acted as resistance since Apr 22

[illiswilgig] 13/1/2023 07:42

Bottomfisher - my thinking is the same. And the reason I've been adding to my holding at lows last year before the share price started to recover.

I think the CEO is a good choice and I think he will be a better deal-maker in FSJ's key marine markets than the previous CEO. But he's not a business integration or operational efficiency expert. The previous CEO is - and I think that this is the reason he is still working (until June) to complete the work. With one working on the key deal-making and one working on improving the operations and integration I think we are likely to make good progress at last. The kudos will go to the new CEO, and that's normal, but in my view he will be succeeding in large part due to the hard work across the company before he joined.

cheers

PS - I see a press release confirming JFD has been awarded the next NATO submarine rescue 5-year contract worth £63m on their website. Seems to be a lower-key approach to announcement of regular contracts than in the old days? Hopefully a good thing.

[bottomfisher] 12/1/2023 14:08

My faith in the long-term recovery of James Fisher (FSJ) has been bolstered by the decision of Odyssean Investment Trust (OIT), a small cap investor with a good track record, to take a 4.3% stake last July, and make FSJ one of the trust’s top ten holdings. Its investment came a month after Aberforth, another trust with a strong value bias, took a 5% stake.

OIT was attracted to FSJ because it holds “leading positions across multiple niche marine services”, is focussing on improving its capital allocation, integrating past M&A, and improving operational efficiency.

In its latest quarterly report to shareholders, OIT notes that FSJ has “announced three non-core business disposals and sale of a dive support vessel. Expected proceeds will de-gear the balance sheet easing near term covenant and re-finance pressure”.

Whilst all of this is well known, I take some comfort from OIT’s comment that “we remain positive on early interactions with the new CEO and the scope for material operational improvement across the group.”

The key to the long overdue recovery in FSJ’s fortunes is the new CEO who only took over in September. Early days yet, but it is reassuring to learn that one professional investor believes that the new CEO may be able to turn this ship around.