Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 16/7/2013 21:37

Remember when the shares were stuck at 52/ 53 p .
I can see why from the director sell. Even directors have to spend the money eventually to enjoy life !!

[s34icknote] 16/7/2013 21:35

Hi Woody
Well done chaps for sticking with this one.
? is it still worth buying or topping up at these levels ?
Sicknote

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 21:29

Mozy there are over 7.7m options on the table at 30th june 2012 exercisable at 20.5p so they're going to be traded at some point as i doubt we see 20p again. That's over 10% dilution if they're all traded.

However many of these have been exercisable since june 2010 and are available to exercise until 2016/17 in some cases.

Clearly in june 2010 you wouldn't have exercised them as the share price was still around the 20p mark. However it's then a matter of whether they believe the share price will continue to improve. If they start exercising then you know what action to take.

Crawford Currie has roughly over 1m options yet he bought 41K shares recently at 56p so i'm comfortable with it. Despite the volume of options i think the directors will manoeuvre this very carefully not to p*ss shareholders off. They've as much as said so today. aimho.

WC

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 21:00

Aleman............ i think it's likely we might see a deal sometime in the next 18 months in which case all future figs beyond this year may well be revised. I'm only guessing here but with debt down i think a return to "sensible" acquisative growth is highly likely and i think if Duffy and Boyd continue to drive the business, particularly productivity improvements then we're in good hands.

From recollection Duffy and Boyd came from Mars and based on my own experience of working with people who been trained or worked in some capacity at Mars then they're usual pretty switched on and it's no surprise that the business is gaining traction.

We're never likely to see explosive sales growth so the acquisition and productivity route seems to be the most likely for eps improvements

fwiw i'd conclude that Lightbody has been fortunate to have two exceptional directors looking after his interests. But then again he probably recuited them.

WC

[aleman] 16/7/2013 20:43

Cenkos have revised to 8.0p for 2013 and 6.4p for 2014.

[mozy123] 16/7/2013 20:10

How many options are outstanding currently?

[topvest] 16/7/2013 19:18

This is very good news medium term as it diversifies the shareholder base. Lightbody has a lot of wealth tied-up with this and must have been biting his nails at one point when the share price was on the floor and the debt through the ceiling. He now has some serious money to spend and half his holding still intact. Be interesting to see who is on board. MAM may have added more I suspect, but there will be others.

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 19:09

back from golf to find it was lightbody selling. Not so sure there's any need to begin to unwind your holding boff.............mind you it's probably bigger than mine and i've a few:-0

He must have had in mind to unwind some of his holding at some point and these next set of results do appear to be likely to show the final leg of the turnaround.

Agree with aleman if he's wanted to unwind this many he'll have had to find a buyer and the insti's would be expecting a decent deal too. Who knows why he's selling he might have to...........divorce pending? it could be any number of reasons.

I would be more concerned if he couldn't get them away to someone. Remember too an ED ex FD was a buyer recently at 56p. It's hard to judge what the pi's reaction might be but i'm at least waiting for the rns's and also the results figures. It might dip a bit in the short term on this news but i think it will recover and more.

I think we also have to be mindful that Duffy who, at least in part, appears to have been the architiect of this turnaround has taken over 360K shares in exchange for his options and is unlikely imv to have done this without some knowledge of Lightbody's intentions. So i'd expect him to be pretty sharp.

Woody

post note

If i had to place my trust in either Lightbody or Duffy then i think my preference would be Duffy. Lightbody if i recall correctly (it's so bloody long ago now) was before my time as an investor here but unless i'm mistaken presided over aggresive expansion and extensive debt. Since Duffy (and his FD) has arrived the business has grown from strength to strength. Debt down and productivity clearly up. I'll stick with Duffy for the time being.

[aleman] 16/7/2013 16:36

It would take time to sort this series of deals. The price would always move on a bit and it has only been over 60p recently. It's also worth waiting for more news as I think we might get some buying RNSes. I would not fret over the slight discount and concentrate on the coming results, although you may wish to sell a few if it is making you nervous to have so many. I sold a few recently either side of the tax-year end as my holding was getting a bit too large a part of my portfolio for my liking.

[boffster] 16/7/2013 16:24

Lightbody is no fool though.. I have to ask myself the question, why would he sell half of his holding at such a discount to the market price? The man hasn't become a multi millionaire by making daft decisions, this is (partly) the business he inherited and made prosper?

[aleman] 16/7/2013 16:16

Just seen it after my last post. Not quite certain but selling by the chairman seems to allow fulfillment of some options maturing and needs of an employee share trust without the dilution and market overhang you might normally expect for next year.

[boffster] 16/7/2013 16:01

Wish I was mate, really quite shocked by that announcement and I've got to say, I'm now considering whether its time to exit stage left on this one. Assume you've read the RNS.

[aleman] 16/7/2013 15:57

I agree with this_is_me. It looks like 6.5m was sold first, if you look at the times, and all the others look like arranged buys with the MMs taking a small cut. It was probably a multiple deal being lined up shortly before the price jumped over 60p that has only been completed recently. Can't be certain, though. I'm sure we'll have notification(s) in due course. I expect some of the directors now own notably more than a week ago. Boff's quiet. He may be in the know.

[this_is_me] 16/7/2013 14:59

I do not think that they were all sells; most were buys arranged by the broker on behalf of the seller of 6.5 million.

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 14:51

The total sub bid sales at around 55p is 13.495m shares not far off the Lightbody holding so my guess would be he's been kindly pushed, all speculation of course.

This could be good news as institutional investment holders pick up the shares and although we might see a few offloading small numbers in the short term it might be beneficial in the longer term and provide potentially a little more liquidity.

To offload that quantity and have as little impact as it has someones clearly picking them up. We might be left with a slight overhang but i'd expect that to clear after such a good TS.

Woody

It may have also been David Marshall at London Finance

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 14:39

TIM there are only a few shareholders with that kind of holding figs from DLook.

London Finance 8m
Ruffer 7.59m
MAM 3.63m
TDIT 2.72m
and Lightbody himself 13.7m

Ruffer, MAM and TDIT have all added recently so i'd be surprised if it was them. My guess would be lightbody has been coerced into selling but i could be wrong.

Interesting few days brewing!

Woody

[this_is_me] 16/7/2013 14:21

It looks to me like the 6.5 million (more than 10% of the company) was the main sell and this was taken up by various large buyers and some broker made serious money arranging it.

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 13:25

someones dropped a shed load and the share price has hardly moved. i guess we'll have to wait for a rns before finding out out who. Wonder if it's lightbody selling to institutional demand?

A whopping 8.5p below the bid too...............wasn't the boffster was it?

WC

[woodcutter] 16/7/2013 08:57

Many of us have been here a long time and it's been a pleasure to be part of a trusted and well informed thread with some great contibutions from solid experienced investors. Along with the odd bit of fun too.

One of a few threads i'm on that haven't been trashed by the lunatic fringe and Boffster deserves some credit here for filtering out the odd nutcase that's turned up on one or two occassions.

Also big thanks to Aleman for his detailed financial analysis which i think has kept me in when i've had doubts on occassion.

It's still got further to go imo and i've always felt true value will arrive at somewhere between 90p and 120p. I beleive we'll get there now. The management also deserve a substantial amount of credit and the BOD have done a truly great job of turning FIF around aimho.

I retain my holding and see no reason to even top slice in the present climate and although i'm a little disappointed the share price hasn't risen further yesterday i feel when the figures are released we'll see further uplift.

Woody

[topvest] 15/7/2013 19:08

I bought these at 40p and 20.75p, so I'm very happy. It's taken a long time though!

[jpjp100] 15/7/2013 16:05

IMO speciality breads expansion is a great use of some of the money that is in the coffers

Dividend news, pitched to be positive but not too aggressive, is very welcome and will do a lot to help the share price continue its rise

Can you imagine how pleased and proud you would be if you were on the Board of a company that had you had led into a position where it could issue a pre-close statement of that nature?

Not that I am in position to advise anyone, but its surely not the time to sell these just yet.

Crikey, only a few more pence upwards and I shall be expecting markt to have something positive to say!

[dashton42] 15/7/2013 15:12

IC has reiterated it's Buy recommendation (unsurprisingly):

[aleman] 15/7/2013 12:37

I always said I couldn't understand how Cenkos got such low forecasts and expected them to be beaten.

[spaceparallax] 15/7/2013 12:13

current sellers will regret their choice (unless to fund the mid year tax bill) when we're heading towards £1 in the not too distant future.

[topvest] 15/7/2013 10:33

Good opportunity for this go a lot higher once the annual report is out and people start looking to 2013/14 and beyond. It would be absolutely fantastic if this could get back to the £1 per share it was 5/6 years ago.