| Date | Subject |
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15/7/2020
12:50 | essentialinvestor: space, ultimately earnings drive the price. Yes there may be long timeframes
where fundamentals may be out of sync with a share price.
At £1 a share the rating arguably asked a lot, it looks more reasonably priced atm.
That's just on a rudimentary intial look.
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31/3/2019
21:22 | remslie: I find it amazing that the remuneration committee allow such large salaries and benefits to be paid to the two senior directors. Surely the senior Directors should receive a market rate salary and options which can be excercised at a share price well north of today’s share price. Their current remuneration is equivalent to a FTSE 250 company. Indeed the Directors hold relatively few shares which is always a concern.
I am surprised the major shareholders allow these enormous pay packets whilst delivering such a poor return to shareholders.
Miton and Ruffer etc should get involved imo
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25/2/2019
20:01 | topvest: The results were indeed pretty good. Obviously pleased that I'm out directly, but still hold indirectly through LONFIN which have a holding. Its difficult to understand why the share price has declined so much as the story hasn't changed. Brexit worries I guess.
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16/1/2019
10:00 | topvest: Its difficult to understand the drop in share price today. Results didn't look too bad, but revenue is no doubt below consensus which is about a 5% increase for the full year. Was it a profit warning or not? Difficult to know.
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15/1/2019
19:15 | powerhouse: Why the significant drop in share price today?
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05/11/2015
20:02 | jakedog2: NT bought in. May give price a boost ....
From his lastest blog today.
An interesting one that came up at the seminars is Finsbury Food (FIF) which provides high end bakery, cakes and the like.
With the success of Bake Off, demand for high quality bakes has risen (gettit?)
and the company is certainly making a lot of dough.
Profits are rising fast and forecast to rise strongly this year - looks like a share to me that rerates higher, stops for a while then goes up again.
Looks like this one is about to get a sudden rerating higher again and I'm looking for a rise of a further 25% to get the share price up to about 125p. Pretty low risk too unless people really stop eating their kind of stuff.
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31/3/2015
14:42 | jpjp100: Judging by the share price in the last few days, I would say that the results roadshow has been well received
It has been pointed out to me that the dividend promised equates to 4% yield at the 59p price of the equity raise last year. Buyers back then will like that number and potential buyers that missed out on that opportunity might be kicking themselves - especially as the story is a good one - and looking for an entry.
Maybe more associated with the industry will be looking at FIF as a leader of the necessary industry consolidation?
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01/12/2014
18:52 | smithie6: not sure whether the acq. of Fletchers is perhaps over priced a bit
FIF looks to have a reported EBITDA of 10.7M
giving a low ratio to cap. value of 3.7- 4 (with share price at 60p)
EBITDA/share looks to have been around 16p (10.7M/66M)
(that ratio would reduce even more if one removed the recent large investment in new machinery, phps 6-8M, and the property held and considered a value of EV wrt EBITDA, perhaps reducing the ratio to 3 !)
and FIF was roughly debt free or would have been phaps in 1 yr
while Fletchers EBITDA was 6M
(59M new shares issued)
yet Fletchers valued at 56M
a ratio of around 9
(and had debt)
a valuation ratio MUCH higher than the FIF ratio
EBTDA/new share is 8.5....much lower than the 16 for 'old' FIF !!!!!!!
(for this value I have deducted 1M as estimated interest cost for the 21M debt used with shares to obtain the 6M EBITDA from Fletchers)
The large difference in EBITDA per share ratios between old FIF and Fletchers makes me wonder if FIF has over paid to acquire Fletchers, compared with options choices to benefit shareholders, such as perhaps increasing the divi for the old FIF to drive up the share price (towards 120p for the old FIF)....for a low risk solution to benefit shareholders.
(from the summary info available...it looks difficult to me to calculate the expected EPS and debt. in 1 years time...although the cash generation should reduce the debt level and hence the finance costs...I guess some people will have enough data and have calculated some numbers...)
I guess part of the idea is to increase the EPS over coming years by reducing the increased debt from cashflow.....(not going to attract many tech sector investors !)
(I wonder if the shareholders would have done better if a larger divi was paid or share buybacks done....instead of using the cashflow to make this acquisition....last big acquisition was over priced and shareholders lost a lot of money as a result....)
one can see possible cross selling benefits etc....but perhaps a lot of that was already included in the price paid for Fletchers...and cross selling possibilities is perhaps only in the direction from FIF to Fletchers rather than in the other direction
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one might argue that FIF was 50% undervalued at 60p....as its takeover value...
issuing a large number of FIF shares as part of the acquisition cost could be argued to be like giving away assets to the sellers of Fletchers, ..and one wonders whether FIF could have done something to have got the share price up before doing the acquisition, such as presentations, higher divi, a bonus divi announcement for X months in future etc.
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Risk
one might argue that FIF could have stayed as it was, and could have increased its divi to say 3p (from 6p EPS, after tax) which would have been a 5% divi wrt 60p share price. Or even higher if the cash was not needed.
If all of the 6p EPS was paid out as a divi then one could argue the share price would have gone to 120p to give a yield of 5%.
With little risk to FIF shareholders.
Whereas the acquisition infers a level of risk, as well as opportunities perhaps.
Be interesting to see how the share price and EPS performs over coming years and how it compares to a share price of 120p, if 6p divi had been paid from the old FIF.
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Last big acquisition that FIF made, 5 or so years later....and with turnover doubled after the acqusition of each part to the merger....
the share price was 2/3rd of the price paid for the acquisition !!
(some ppl have had doubts about the legality of that deal, whether to benefit shareholders (ref. the LAW) or the chairman.....who gained by selling X Million shares at arguably a false high price....to make him richer. Using his votes and those of David Marshall (LFI). London mkts are a cesspit (Quindell, Cupid, MOS, Lamprell, Sefton Res. the list is endless !.....with few or no prosecutions)
Will this be the same ?!, share price of 2/3rd in 5 years time, 40p ?!
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22/9/2014
08:24 | topvest: Results out. Solid but nothing to cause too much excitement. Looks like they are definitely on the acquisition trail, but biding their time for the right deal. They could do with getting the share price up first though so they are able to use shares as part of any deal. Overall, a good recovery over the last couple of years but they now need evidence of some growth to move forwards.
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17/7/2014
07:12 | el1te: Results ahead of expectations. Great stuff. 1p dividend for the full year is expected. Margins still under pressure from ingredient price rises (probably still cocoa as wheat and sugar have fallen), but they seem to have shaken that off anyway
Good to see some progress after 6 months of a static share price.
El1te
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