Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[woodcutter] 05/9/2013 10:43

i've managed to keep with my traditional philosophy and am only holding about a dozen at present. Although i've got significant holdings in some and i topped up on ANP this week i'm still holding a lot of cash. Looking to find a justifiable reason to add to my current positions, particularly those i've ventured into more recently where i only have a small holding, but the valuations are already historically high.

SIA on the move this morning, gapped up a little, maybe start of a breakout we'll see.

Nice to hear news on IGR, well done. I sold out for a small loss and missed the move up from 30p after the seller had gone, just goes to show it's hard to keep your eye on everything, got distracted looking at other stocks sadly.

b2 is in there so good luck to you both.

WC

[aleman] 04/9/2013 11:29

Good luck with them. I agree SIA looks set for a healthy dividend for a while but I've decided I'll stick with what traditionally works for me. I picked up a few IGR on the recent dip, by the way. Might pick up some more if they dip again but I already have a few minnows frying for now. If anything, I need to cut my total number of shares back as it's got too high. I've been pushed into several illiquid tiddlers recently in the hunt for value and think I am spread a bit too thinly now. I need to trim one two and increase weightings in others, if possible and depending how interim results go, so I'm not really looking to expand the total number.

[woodcutter] 04/9/2013 08:50

Aleman - Thought you might like SIA the figures are looking good, 10% yield now and 50% of FCF future divi. Very good quality oil reserves too imho. Sorry didn't know your feelings about diggers;-)

I've always been wary too but on a return basis i've bought into two, SIA (I've been toping up on dips in share price for a while now) which has now given over to income streams for investors and GPK which i expect to do the same at prelims. But like yourself i'm not usually very keen primarily due to geopoliticals. History is filled with governments nationalising commodity companies operating within their territory. However both SIA and GPK look interesting, they are throwing off cash and i know we both like that.

Woody

[spaceparallax] 03/9/2013 12:35

coming alive again - presumably some PIs getting in before the probably strong results and further rerating

[spaceparallax] 02/9/2013 13:31

Looking solid today

[aleman] 30/8/2013 11:57

Thanks, Woodcutter. A quick look suggests SIA would probably meet my requirements for potential investment on the numbers. Unfortunately, I am not keen on diggers. I find their prospects volatile and unpredictable for political as well as geological and meteorological reasons. I might look some more but will probably pass.

[spaceparallax] 30/8/2013 09:38

Indeed, how things change

[woodcutter] 29/8/2013 18:27

Aleman just a thought as i recollect as well as a value investor you're a keen dividend seeker have you looked at SIA. Started to return cash and announced a progressive dividend policy today. dyor etc

Woody

Space i think they're very short of stock imv and any sales are getting mopped up briskly. This is now providing something of an abnormal market and the share price is rising on mimimal buying. Amazing really that three years ago these volume levels had almost nil effect on the share price

[spaceparallax] 29/8/2013 12:35

here we go, 80p coming up in the next week methinks

[spaceparallax] 27/8/2013 13:00

another leg imminent in the sp's upward journey

[spaceparallax] 23/8/2013 12:24

sp rebounding nicely after the recent modest selling

[woodcutter] 19/8/2013 09:29

Aleman

Yep dividends do look sustainable an i'm comfortable with the synopsis that balance sheets have improved considerably as companies have reduced debt, FIF is a fine example. I think the days of leveraging your balance sheet for growth and paying less tax by incurring interest on your P&L are perhaps behind us.

However the volume of QE has added liquidity to the market and with realtive yields depressed, i guess quite a bit of that money has found it's way into equities. I suppose the scenario painted is one of improved earnings growth followed by reduction in QE, maybe a small rise in inflation and consequently a rise in interest rates. If all of these occur in a realtively short time frame then yields on other investment vehicles will have to rise and then there'll be a flight of cash to safer asset classes, bonds etc.

The downside will be a fall in share prices and i guess there are a few institutions sitting on cash waiting for that to happen and will load up on equities when it does. I'm not comfortable myself at present and although i'm not earning anything on my capital i'm heavy in cash at the present, around 35/40% having sold quite a bit recently. I only kept my longer term players where a believe significant value still exists and FIF is one of them.

It's a very odd economic environment, do you buy for the divi on offer and risk capital or do you sit and wait and possibly miss a bit more share price upside and divi.
I'm a little more risk averse these days unless i find something of real value or am prepared to take a punt on a possible growth stock i'm kind of on the sidelines a bit.

I'm also driving more and more of my decsions on charting techniques whilst still looking hard at the fundamentals and this is opting me out of many shares i would normally have bought in the past without hesitation.It's a very strong filter but as i'm uncertain i'm willing to live with it at present.

Woody

[aleman] 17/8/2013 16:37

Woodcutter - that article sounds way too pessimistic. A forward p/e of 12 is slightly lower than the long term average of around 13.5. (I grant this is to be expected with lower inflation.) FTSE 100 dividends should total about £73bn for 2013 compared to a market cap pushing £1700bn, with about £78bn expected for 2014. What's more, those dividends are well covered and record amounts of cash on balance sheets means the dividends are less likely to be cut in the next slowdown than in previous ones. I wouldn't say shares were cheap (after single figure P/Es of 2009-2011) but they still seem pretty reasonable value overall. The real question is why yields have not compressed more if we are in an extended low interest rate environment (and why companies continue to hoard cash).

[spaceparallax] 17/8/2013 11:07

It is an interesting note and probably highly relevant to many stocks. However, as long term followers of FIF we are well aware of the crazy PER at which the share price languished for years; the recent recovery was long overdue and fully supported by the continually strengthening finances of the Company together with the big sale.

I recently mooted and EPS of 10p for the coming results, some of which would be a continuation of the growth of recent years and some a result of the sale upon the balance sheet. If that figure's about right, we remain on a very meagre PER.

I think for the note quoted to be relevant, the EPS would need to be nearer 5 and we would be operating in a much less predictable sector.

[woodcutter] 17/8/2013 10:34

No problem aleman.

i think we're probably going to tread water for a while now until the results.

I thought you might be interested in this part of the recent results from FKE so i post it here as a general note.

Although the London market is close to an all time high this buoyancy has not been accompanied by improved volumes which are currently at levels reminiscent of bear markets. One of the principal reasons for this situation is that markets have been driven artificially with liquidity created by Central Banks rather than by economic fundamentals. Interest rates, at historically unheard of levels, have meant that investors have been driven to invest in higher risk equities to achieve any worthwhile yield. Corporate earnings have enjoyed an unusual boost as overall profits as a percentage of GDP are at their highest level for decades; a level that history suggests is unsustainable. When, rather than if, profits as a percentage of GDP return to a more normal and sustainable level, interest rates return to their long term historical trend of 2%-3% in real terms, and when the risky experiment of quantitative easing ends, then markets may have quite a wake - up call. This will hopefully push volumes up to more normal levels.

I noted on a few threads that i've been a little wary for a while now and continue to hold significant cash, although i've had a few nibbles lately on a number of smaller plays.

Anyway make of it what you will it's quite an interesting note from a small independant stockboker.

FIF may well be seen as a reasonable defensive play particularly with the improved divi so if we do see a major sell off FIF might not be hurt as bad as others.

WC

[spaceparallax] 16/8/2013 09:54

Roll on 23 sept - an eagerly awaited result set.

[aleman] 13/8/2013 23:21

I thank you both for that. I keep forgetting FIF is AIM as it doesn't have many of the typical characteristics I associate with AIM stocks. Perhaps I should have been asking about the AIM 100 index. The lowest market cap there is about £10m but that will drop out. Indeed, several often drop out at a time. If we assume several will drop out next time, which leaves the smallest remaining market cap at around £50m, that would mean a stock with a market cap of £40m+ might well be in the running to join.

[smartmoney100] 13/8/2013 17:56

Small cap index entry currently 110.9m

hxxp://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ See FTSE ranking. Not for AIM listed co's I presume though.

[woodcutter] 13/8/2013 17:51

Not sure on that one aleman.

FTSE small cap smallest constituent is currently IFL at just over £47m market cap according to telegraph so FIF at £47m is close.

If they can make this index then that'll push more tracker fund institutions into taking a slice maybe.

Would an AIM share qualify for this index i'm uncertain, perhaps it would have to be one of the aim indecies.

some significant sells again today is lightbody offloading more i wonder.

woody

[spaceparallax] 13/8/2013 11:28

imminent tick-up under buying pressure.

[spaceparallax] 12/8/2013 13:03

Tremendous patience was required; however, the chart looks so strong currently with supporting fundamentals and debt reduction that the share price could take another rapid step-up to 80p this week even

[this_is_me] 12/8/2013 10:50

Yes, patience has been rewarded already.

[aleman] 12/8/2013 10:49

Is this reaching a market cap where it is going to join one of the indices?

[woodcutter] 12/8/2013 10:36

wish all my investments went like this!

WC

[spaceparallax] 12/8/2013 10:05

Lively again this morning