Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 25/3/2013 08:57

I'm struggling to see what acquisitions would be if they are already number 2 in cakes. I'd expect something to broaden the business - but what?

FIF has been tipped several times in Shares this year. I would have thought these results will virtually guarantee coverage. SHares does not have IC's clout, though.

[this_is_me] 25/3/2013 08:52

I would see an increase in capex with some smaller aquisitions more likely than one big aquisation.

[dashton42] 25/3/2013 08:50

I think it might even get a mention in Investors Chronicle today - they do seem to be "across" this company...

[woodcutter] 25/3/2013 08:37

might need to be tipped at end of this week in IC or sunday papers to get it moving.

[aleman] 25/3/2013 08:27

I thought they could manage an acquisition up to about £20m or so. I now reckon £30m and maybe end up with a company with EBITDA of £18m+ and debt of £30m or so. Debt/EBITDA would still be no higher than peer average at 2 or under and EPS around 10p and rising. I know I'm getting ahead of myself a little but I'm just wondering what sort of acquisition(s) they are thinking of.

[woodcutter] 25/3/2013 08:13

it seems you can't please everyone, some sells on these results!!!

WC

[woodcutter] 25/3/2013 08:09

well i might be a little late to the party this morning chaps but all-in-all i think the results are pretty damn good and concur with the general feelings of the wider community on here.

I would have liked to have seen 0.5p for the divi now and maybe 1p/1.5p at H2 which is easily affordable but beggars etc.

Well done boff, aleman, dash, space, T-i-m for hanging in there when many have gone. Surely we must see an share price re-rating from now.

Woody

[this_is_me] 25/3/2013 08:06

It seems to Me that the placement and elements of today's statement showed that they were constrained by debt and pressure from the banks from essential capex. Normally I strongly object to companies that sell off the fastest growing part of the business cheaply when under cash pressure. (eg. FDL recently) but in this case they were able to sell at a fair price to the brand owners. Failing to sell to them could have caused very strained business relationships that would have caused too many problems.

I think that the management now have room to breathe and we should see progress in the medium term going forward.

[boffster] 25/3/2013 08:01

0.25p?? Not going to quit the day job just yet then. Debt down more than I expected though

[aleman] 25/3/2013 07:55

EPS is stronger in H2 and cashflow much stronger. I would not expect a 50/50 split of the dividend for any other company with such seasonality. I'm wondering if we will get 0.25p + 0.50p.

[aleman] 25/3/2013 07:52

They could have paid the small dividend and managed the capex without the disposal. It certainly has transformed the balance sheet.

[this_is_me] 25/3/2013 07:42

The disposal has transformed the balance sheet, allowed small dividends and allowed investment in upgrading and replacement of old plant.

[aleman] 25/3/2013 07:40

Stronger numbers than I was expecting. EPS of 3.1p fully diluted for November fundraising in the weak half. Debt still down £2m in the weaker half if fundraising is ignored. (Once again, why did we need it? Debt/ENITDA now looks around £27m/£13m= 2.1.) H2 will show minimal turnover growth but profit growth has come from margins. The big improvement in the balance sheet is mostly current assets going from -£17m (which worried some investors) to -£12m. Deferred payments is now down to only £400k. Negative assets ex-goodwill looks likely to be close to elimination in H2.

So EPS and cashflow look a bit stronger than I was expecting. How on earth did Cenkos get such weak forecasts? Last year was 2.1p in H1 and 5.9p in H2 to give 8.0p full year. This year we have 3.5p (3.1p fully diluted) for H1 so we should be looking at 5.9p (5.0p fully diluted) with no improvement after the disposal in H2 to get a minimum of 9.4p (8.0p fully diluted) - and even more if H2 is strong. Cenkos will have to raise forecasts, surely.

[skinny] 25/3/2013 07:11

Highlights
· Group revenue up 1% to £103.3m (H1 2011: £102.0m)
· Profit before tax up 32.8% to £3.0m (H1 2011: £2.2m)
· Sales in the UK Cake division up 2% to £67.8m (H1 2011: £66.6m)
· Sales in the Bread division up 7% to £27.4m (H1 2011: £25.6m)
· Net debt down 27% to £27.4m (H1 2011: £37.7m)

Operational Highlights
· New celebration cake venture in Australia
· Position as second largest manufacturer of ambient cake in the UK maintained
· Licensed cakes continue to perform well - strong performance from Spiderman and Moshi Monsters, plus addition of Me to You range
· Continued growth in Bread brands
· Placing to raise £3,779,300 after expenses for capital investment projects in UK Cake business

Post period highlights
· Sale of Free From business for £21m
· Approved interim dividend of 0.25p per share

[dashton42] 25/3/2013 07:02

Divi reinstated, debt down, now to pour over the report in more detail...

[dashton42] 25/3/2013 06:58

Here we are, moments to go...

[spaceparallax] 19/3/2013 15:50

roll-on monday, then the share price rise can continue

[markt] 19/3/2013 11:30

definitely not, I suggest to buy it because I have shorted it !

doh

[spaceparallax] 18/3/2013 11:30

and surprise, surprise you just happen to have an interest

[markt] 16/3/2013 20:15

jp
if you like trends

PTEC is perhaps worth a look...rocket driven trend recently...

[aleman] 15/3/2013 17:09

I didn't realise how close we were to results. THey are a week on Monday, for those not already in the know.

[woodcutter] 15/3/2013 16:56

Interesting debate and nice to hear a range of differing thoughts and experiences. My guess would be that those consumers who are buying the value range of products are most likely not changing their habits at all and i would figure these are also the finsbury cake buyers maybe?

Whereas the more discerning consumers are probably moving away from any supermarket meat products but most likely don't buy the cake stuff anyway.

fwiw i've happily eaten horse meat on the continent and found it fine. I figure jpjp's comment just about sums it up really. When i was chatting to our local farm shop butcher his view was siimple "If your paying very little for your lasgne then what do you expect it to contain. All food is produced to a price end of story really."

I guess you shop according to your principals and income so you pay your money and take your choice. But it's been very overdone imv, no ones dropped dead because they ate a bit of horse meat. As has been stated by others here the more worrying thing is the lack of traceability and quality control.

I await the FIF figures with interest, roll on end of March, might be warm enough to get some golf in.

Woody

[this_is_me] 15/3/2013 16:22

The horsemeat is only the tip of the iceburg; the real issue is that animals unfit for human consumption eg. because of disease ,can just as easily be used.

[jpjp100] 15/3/2013 16:16

The comment that I thought summed up this meat scandal (it isn't the first and it won't be the last)...

'If you are buying (insert retailer name here) value burgers, the type of meat that is in those burgers is really the least of your worries'

[spaceparallax] 15/3/2013 12:32

Me too ale, I don't discriminate between animals and have no sentimentality whatever towards horses. The issue really has been about whether we can trust what food says on the packet and particularly the lengths to which immoral producers are prepared to actively compromise standards and control simply to maximise profit. In many respects it's the food industry's version of the sleaze that we've seen in politics, media, banks, ambulance chasers, accountants who all seem to operate without moral compass.

Sadly, the current Tory majority seem to prefer to allow such practises because they too appear to have no sense of greater good. The recent ignoring of the recommendations of Leveson and the EU proposal to restrict bank bonuses to an excessively generous one year's salary are ample demonstration of their mentality of looking after number 1 and most certainly not being all in it together.