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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Finsbury Food Group Plc LSE:FIF London Ordinary Share GB0009186429 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.50 0.56% 89.50 88.00 91.00 89.50 89.50 89.50 39,349 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 313.3 17.0 9.8 9.1 117

Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3776 to 3799 of 4825 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
27/3/2013
17:45
Any comments on Ruffer LLP buying up shares on behalf of their discretionary clients?

They are holding 12% of the company now.Does anyone have any idea who these clients are and what the intention might be i.e a take over bid in the making.

I know there has been rumours in the past about take overs here so could this be renewed interest?

Mr Bluesky

mr_bluesky
27/3/2013
14:36
oldnotbold - margins improved a fraction and the outlook says they are trading "comfortably" in line so far in H2. Food commodities prices have been easing and the company did okay despite much moaning a couple of years ago. The fundraising was for capex expected to cut costs by £2m and improve technical capability which should help margins. I agree acquisitions often destroy value but this will be debt financed rather than cheap equity and the return on capital will almost certainly by higher then the debt interest, making it earnings enhancing. I've seen several companies make small acquisitions recently and they've all been instantly earnings enhancing. It seems market valuations have yet to catch up with the low interest rate environment. (Granted this could change abruptly but the B of E suggest not.) Strategy since the new directors took over seems pretty sound so I fancy suitable acquisitions but will reserve judgement until they are announced. I don't know where you expect a big food manufacturer to sell if they don't sell to the big 5 which have 80% of the market! Being big didn't help RHM.
aleman
27/3/2013
11:54
I don't see a margin problem. The substantial increase in profitability in the results was achieved with ongoing debt reduction excluding the sale of Free From. Also, their continued focus on internal efficiency is a positive way to improve from within, even in the face of the tough times.
On the acquisitions, I share your caution. For several years now FIF's share price has been pinned down by the indebtedness that arose from their acquisition spree of the late noughties. To my mind, it would be madness to increase indebtedness except for a few modest complementary bolt-ons that are genuinely too good to turn down.

I'd be happy for FIF to grow organically for a couple of years during which time debt will continue reducing and perhaps when we're down below the £5M debt level it might be time to buy wisely but to keep debt below £10M.

spaceparallax
27/3/2013
11:40
I like this story for the cheap valuation but would like to get your thoughts on margins and acquisitions, both of which seem to be risks to the story. Firstly,it seems that FIF are competing with much deeper pocketed players; a limited number of big supermarkets as clients; and rising raw material prices. In a Porters Five Forces analysis, these are three big problems. But I am very new to the story. Does FIF have any unique products or brands that can help it to keep ahead of the margin pressure? Secondly, everyone seems to be assuming that they can make accretive acquisitions, but how likely is this? Most acquisitions turn out to be value-destroyers; and this is particularly true when the acquirer has a low PE multiple as it is difficult to find acquisitions which are accretive. I'd love to be told I'm wrong on both fronts...
oldnotbold
26/3/2013
16:16
Boffter:

thanks!

And very good.

I think this will start getting the attention it deserves now and alot more liquidity and good trade volumes.

I never arrive at the party early but I tend to get there just as the bowl of punch comes out ;)
Mr Bluesky

mr_bluesky
26/3/2013
14:58
boff

lol

your an evil woman :-))

woodcutter
26/3/2013
12:04
Welcome to the boards Mr.Bluesky, its just a shame you weren't here a couple of years ago.

Why did you have to hide away for so long, so long?

;o)

boffster
26/3/2013
07:02
IC reckons the forward p/e is 8, but I'm not sure where they get this figure from.

Meanwhile, we get a mention in today's CityAM:

http://www.cityam.com/article/finsbury-food-sets-sights-acquisitions-earnings-jump

dashton42
26/3/2013
00:54
It looks like Cenkos have upgraded the dividend forecast to 0.75p but left eps at 6.3p then 6.1p.
aleman
25/3/2013
23:58
Woodcutter don't knock mis-valuation, it's why we're investors :-) The wait is sweet.
smartmoney100
25/3/2013
18:13
Sector enterprize value/EBITDA is around 6.5 to 7. EBITDA looks set for around £12m without Live Well. That should give a market cap of around £75-£80m less debt of about £6-8m come June. That suggests market cap of over £1 per share. EPS looks set for 7-8p. Strong cashflows and low debt should give a p/e of at least 10, maybe 12, so 70-96p. An acquisition would almost certainly enhance earnings, given food company prices and interest rates. Whichever way, it's well undervalued and there should be plenty more to be had here. It's still at a very big discount to peers (as was noted when Zetar was taken over).
aleman
25/3/2013
18:06
what an astute move selling "free from" sales growth has gone from 14%, 10% to 7% (H1 this year, includes all bread sales) that Duffy seems a smart cookie to me.

More wine wench!

remove me from my computer before i post something i'll regret.

woodcutter
25/3/2013
17:52
given the reduction in debt, sale of free from, the results today and the cash generated from operations it's only a matter of time before some other business or private equity group is crawling all over it doing due diligence imv, unless we see a substantial re-rating in the share price

It's got to be one of the most undervalued stocks i've ever had the fortune to be invested in and i'm completely puzzled as to why it so difficult for investors to see it. Valuation..........bonkers!:0)

I'm sitting on over 100% profit now and i've given up on share price appreciation after today, mr market is not in tune with events. So i guess i'm here for the buyout now!!

Woody

wtf do they have to do? sorry wine speaking........heavy lunch

woodcutter
25/3/2013
17:44
I'm sure this has already been posted here - apologies if so...

http://www.just-food.com/interview/uk-baker-finsbury-eyes-ma-following-free-from-sale_id122351.aspx

dashton42
25/3/2013
17:40
imho, even better than a bit of a share price rise is raising the profile of the co among the investment community. Mind you, I'll take the share price rise as well!!!!
dashton42
25/3/2013
17:34
An IC "buy" is should be worth a few pence on shares of a company like FIF. Might not happen until Friday when the magazine hits shelves, though.
aleman
25/3/2013
17:17
dashton:

Very nice indeed mate ;)

Mr Bluesky

mr_bluesky
25/3/2013
17:15
Investors Chronicle has covered the FIF results today ("Feast on Finsbury Food"), and maintained its Buy recommendation:

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/03/25/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/tips-of-the-week/feast-on-finsbury-food-q1iLzNy92QkO9mHNIzcJ8J/article.html

dashton42
25/3/2013
15:26
I DON'T MIND IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT
spaceparallax
25/3/2013
13:25
very valid point WC
jpjp100
25/3/2013
13:13
if the share price doesn't show some movement i'd be inclined to think there'll be an acquisition alright but not by FIF. It's looking very much a take over target itself.

WC

woodcutter
25/3/2013
12:05
WELL I'M IN ;)


http://imageshack.us/f/259/image002pco.jpg/ FIF chart 22/03/13:

I have chosen to draw up this chart as I find it interesting!

FIF has recently (28th Feb) had a break away gap up form a low of 42.7p to a high of 53p.The gap up was caused by the news of FIF selling two subsidery companies for £21 million see RNS below....


Finsbury Food Group plc

Sale of Free From Business for £21 million

Finsbury Food Group plc (AIM: FIF), a leading manufacturer of cake, bread and bakery goods, announces today that it has sold its Free From business for a total value of approximately £21 million to focus on its core Cake and Bread businesses.

The Free From business consists of two subsidiaries, Livwell Limited ("Livwell") and United Bakeries (Holdings) Limited ("UBH") (the holding company of United Central Bakeries Limited ("UCB")). These subsidiaries, which account for 14% of Group revenues, have been sold to Genius Foods Limited ("Genius"), on a debt-free, cash-free basis.

The sale will transform Finsbury's balance sheet with a cash balance of approximately £17.7 million paid to the Group on completion, and a further £3 million payable by the second anniversary of completion. This will allow Finsbury to focus on growing its cake and bread businesses, to further develop its licensed brand portfolio, and to take advantage of the right bolt on acquisitions to drive longer term value as opportunities and circumstance allow. In addition to the investment in its current businesses, the Group will also continue to pay down its outstanding debts.

The Group will continue on its stated strategy of generating returns for shareholders by building a crafted bakery group focused on premium, celebration and well-being that delivers for its customers and the end consumer.


Back to the charts:

The price now seems to be in a variation of a bull flag with a high of 55p.A break over 55p and an advance onto c.70p should ensue for a first target.In order to turn bullish again from this preiod of consolidation the MACD needs to cross back over (fast over slow) and the RSI needs to trend up again for confirmation.

Personaly I would wait for 55p to be broken through preferably with a wide range candle and higher volume to enter the trade.

Switching back to fundamentals again,there has been alot of interest from Ruffer LLP which has been buying up shares for its "discretionary clients".Thier holding has gone from below 5% from November 2012 to 12% now.Thats alot of buying in a short period of time.This could well be an attempt to accumilate shares before a take over bid...who knows!

FIF have an interim statement release tomorrow and this could well be the catalyst to take the price over 55p and onwards.with a p/e of around 2.9 it is also looking very under valued.

Mr Bluesky


25/03/13:

Finsbury Food, the cake and bread maker reported a sharp rise in half year profit and said the outlook for the group is stronger than ever.

Pre-tax profit jumped 32.8% to £3.0m for the six months ended December 31 from £2.2m the year before. Group revenue for the period rose 1% to £103.3m.

Sales in the UK Cake division rose 2% to £67.8m and sales in the Bread division gained 7% to £27.4m. The group sold its free from business for £21m in February.

Chief Executive John Duffy said: "The group has proved its resilience and continued to drive growth, productivity and efficiencies in what remains a difficult trading environment."

"The outlook for Finsbury is now stronger than ever. The sale of the Free From business has transformed the group's balance sheet, giving us the opportunity to catalyse our stated strategy and accelerate further growth through investment and market consolidation whilst reinstating the dividend."

Net debt was reduced by 27% to £27.4m and a dividend payment of 0.25p per share has been reinstated.

"We will continue to build upon the foundations we have created, and look forward to the next stages of the company's development with the ultimate goal of driving value for our shareholders," Finsbury added

mr_bluesky
25/3/2013
11:00
maybe there will be an acquisition / site opening in Australia?
jpjp100
25/3/2013
10:17
Impressive results especially the increase in profits.

Interesting to read the statement concerning future growth being focussed upon organic development, whilst not closing the door on appropriate acquisitions.

With the recent divestment of Free From the debt level must be dramatically lower, which should in turn magnify the profitability significantly in the current FY. Given the current EPS of 3.6p, the forward EPS is likely to grow dramatically, which will mean that the current share price looks very modest.

I can't see us remaining sub 60p for long and who knows, pending the current HY results, we could even see £1 next year.

spaceparallax
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