Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[woodcutter] 04/4/2013 09:09

jp

have you read dr alexanders "trading for a living" it too is a good ta read.

as is murphys "technical analysis of the financial markets"

not read marben will take a look.

WC

[jpjp100] 03/4/2013 16:15

I have just been re reading Brian Marber's excellent book Marber on Markets

Marber has a long history of delivering highly regarded technical analysis and the book is a a gloriously good insight into technical analysis

I think even he might start to get a bit excited at the current FIF chart

The more I consider the situation just now, the more I think it is possible that someone will - maybe even as you read this! - be weighing up the possibility of a bid for FIF

I don't know who, but maybe one of the PE houses with form in the food sector.

[dashton42] 03/4/2013 14:59

Today's share price tick-up despite going xd? Pretty impressive.

[woodcutter] 03/4/2013 14:13

i said the TA indicators looked good.

Don't think there's much stock about, tried a dummy order for buy 6000 shares and couldn't get an electronic quote with TDW

WC

[s34icknote] 03/4/2013 14:02

About to break out me thinks!

[spaceparallax] 03/4/2013 13:59

continuing to look very promising

[s34icknote] 03/4/2013 06:18

What would be the yield at 53 p?

[aleman] 02/4/2013 23:01

Without the updated dividend forecast, though. Should be 0.75p and 0.83p.

[woodcutter] 02/4/2013 16:34

several TA indicators are looking favourable for a breakout. some quite supportive buying today so maybe we're ready for the next leg up.

WC

[spaceparallax] 02/4/2013 14:42

....which in one respect confirms strong support. Interesting to see what some fresh news might bring

[this_is_me] 02/4/2013 13:22

Still in the same trading range that it has been since the end of February.

[s34icknote] 02/4/2013 13:14

Bought back in this morning .

[spaceparallax] 02/4/2013 12:45

hallelujah, the share price returns to rightful progression

[aleman] 30/3/2013 15:15

"We've already received a lot of calls and walked away from one deal because the price wasn't right

[dashton42] 28/3/2013 18:34

Interesting idea, dennis russell; Shire Foods looks like it would make a bite-sized acquisition, but as it concentrates on pies and pasties, and FIF concentrates on cakes and bread, I don't know that strategically it fits?

Unless they want to get into the pie and pasty market, of course, but I don't recall any mention of this in the results, or in the brrmedia interview.

[spaceparallax] 28/3/2013 15:53

I suspect the Mms are trying a tree-shake - anyone selling atm is bonkers IMHO.

[dennis russell] 28/3/2013 12:02

Here's a suggestion: Volvere, (VLE), a turnaround specialist, has a business called SHIRE FOODS, which might be an interesting fit

[dashton42] 28/3/2013 10:47

It's unfortunate you can't see the brrmedia video mrbluesky - I'd guess you have a browser, software or cookie issue? It may be worth contacting them, to see if they can help out.

Very useful little site, that.

[mr_bluesky] 28/3/2013 09:47

dashton:

Cant run the Video.

I have noticed that FIF like to use the phrase "generate returns for share holders" alot.It almost sounds a little desperate to get people to invest in FIF,just my observation!

Lets hope they actulay mean it and do not issue many more shares as this kills the value for the share holder and kills confidence as well.

Having read the latest RNS things do look well in hand and it will be interesting to see what "bolt on" acquisitions they are considering.

Mr Bluesky

[dashton42] 28/3/2013 08:45

Interview with John Duffy on brrmedia:



He does touch on the acquisition strategy.

[mr_bluesky] 27/3/2013 17:45

Any comments on Ruffer LLP buying up shares on behalf of their discretionary clients?

They are holding 12% of the company now.Does anyone have any idea who these clients are and what the intention might be i.e a take over bid in the making.

I know there has been rumours in the past about take overs here so could this be renewed interest?

Mr Bluesky

[aleman] 27/3/2013 14:36

oldnotbold - margins improved a fraction and the outlook says they are trading "comfortably" in line so far in H2. Food commodities prices have been easing and the company did okay despite much moaning a couple of years ago. The fundraising was for capex expected to cut costs by £2m and improve technical capability which should help margins. I agree acquisitions often destroy value but this will be debt financed rather than cheap equity and the return on capital will almost certainly by higher then the debt interest, making it earnings enhancing. I've seen several companies make small acquisitions recently and they've all been instantly earnings enhancing. It seems market valuations have yet to catch up with the low interest rate environment. (Granted this could change abruptly but the B of E suggest not.) Strategy since the new directors took over seems pretty sound so I fancy suitable acquisitions but will reserve judgement until they are announced. I don't know where you expect a big food manufacturer to sell if they don't sell to the big 5 which have 80% of the market! Being big didn't help RHM.

[spaceparallax] 27/3/2013 11:54

I don't see a margin problem. The substantial increase in profitability in the results was achieved with ongoing debt reduction excluding the sale of Free From. Also, their continued focus on internal efficiency is a positive way to improve from within, even in the face of the tough times.
On the acquisitions, I share your caution. For several years now FIF's share price has been pinned down by the indebtedness that arose from their acquisition spree of the late noughties. To my mind, it would be madness to increase indebtedness except for a few modest complementary bolt-ons that are genuinely too good to turn down.

I'd be happy for FIF to grow organically for a couple of years during which time debt will continue reducing and perhaps when we're down below the £5M debt level it might be time to buy wisely but to keep debt below £10M.

[oldnotbold] 27/3/2013 11:40

I like this story for the cheap valuation but would like to get your thoughts on margins and acquisitions, both of which seem to be risks to the story. Firstly,it seems that FIF are competing with much deeper pocketed players; a limited number of big supermarkets as clients; and rising raw material prices. In a Porters Five Forces analysis, these are three big problems. But I am very new to the story. Does FIF have any unique products or brands that can help it to keep ahead of the margin pressure? Secondly, everyone seems to be assuming that they can make accretive acquisitions, but how likely is this? Most acquisitions turn out to be value-destroyers; and this is particularly true when the acquirer has a low PE multiple as it is difficult to find acquisitions which are accretive. I'd love to be told I'm wrong on both fronts...