Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 15/3/2013 11:37

Maybe one's family and the friends one chooses will tend to have a similar outlook to one's own. I simply don't give a stuff about the horsemeat issue so maybe the same might be expected of my friends and family but, perhaps, that is not representative of the populaton at large.

I am concerened about it highlighting how lax monitoring is in this country. I've always had doubts about nutritional labelling due to coming across very salty food was not labelled with high salt content. I suspect that side of monitoring is also probably way off the mark and can be highly misleading for companies where strict quality control is not enforced. I'd like to see more random testing.

[spaceparallax] 15/3/2013 10:46

I know many people who have significantly altered behaviour - generally moving away from processed meat whose contents are not patently obvious.

[aleman] 15/3/2013 09:47

I don't know anyone who has changed behaviour due to the scandal. It's affected the cheapest products and people buy those on price. THey know the poorer parts of animals end up in these products and don't seem too bothered so long as they're cheap and taste okay. I think the effects are exaggerated. The products that are passing are not free from horse DNA anyway; they're just under the 1% limit. So your burger has 4% horse in instead of 0.9%. What's the big deal? I thought the funniest thing was that sales of horse meat have trebled as people have discovered it tastes like beef but is healthier for you so many are trying its on its own for the first time! I had a horsemeat stew years ago. It was fine. You wouldn't know it wasn't lean beef.

I think it's more likely that Cenkos have weak forecasts due to the never ending winter we have been enduring. It's been cold with occasional snow showers all the way from the start of October to March here. (March is the 7th consecutive month of below average monthly mean temperatures which makes 2013 look likely to be the 5th below average year out of the last 6 in the UK - It's worse in parts of Europe where 6 out of 6 looks to be on the cards unless it warms up soon.). The last few years have been getting less summery. Perhaps, Cenkos have assumed summers will be shorter in future.

[woodcutter] 15/3/2013 09:22

it's not me, i've enough.

going back to Alemans note regarding reasons for eps forecasts being a little low, perhaps the horsemeat scandle has resulted in footfall reductions in supermarkets so maybe sales of other products will be effected.

It's certainlly had an impact on meat and poultry, my local farm shop owner has seen his sales of meat products go up threefold since the scandle and i'm sure he's not alone in that sector. He says he's never been busier and it's continually growing to the point he's struggling to meet demand. Indeed many of our friends have begun shopping for most of their weekly fresh produce at the market too. So fewer visitors to supermakets equals fewer sales of cakes perhaps.

I guess it's a difficult one to judge as i figure the kind of people that i'm chatting too probably aren't likely to buy a finsbury cake anyway.....i can't ever recall buying one myself......oops!

Anyway roll on results and more importantly outlook statement.

Woody

[spaceparallax] 14/3/2013 09:35

you might be right

[aleman] 14/3/2013 09:21

Do we still have a buyer paying up to 52p setting a floor on the price? It seems to have been that way since results. Could be just a coincidence, I suppose.

[spaceparallax] 13/3/2013 14:44

Good to see the share price looking so solid and with the prospect of decent results and a strong outlook given the post results disposal.

[boffster] 09/3/2013 11:30

I can't believe you're all over here entertaining this strange character.

It must be quite sickening for him to watch the share price go up (and us get richer) despite his twisted ramblings

[markt] 08/3/2013 17:45

must admit the FIF trend recently seems quite +ve

the Dow graph being strong recently....even lifting Italy and Spain.....I'm long on a few things, so hopefully the Dow wont ruin the party in the next few days at least...but Dow has had a fast largish run up from last dip around 13800

(FIF, still think that dilution has been wildly excessive !)

(I'm more into tech. stocks, more of a roller coaster ride, and normally no tangible assets ....
but recent one has doubled since start of the year, and I piled in very hard, whereas FIF seems to have taken a long time to double....difficult for us tech. fans to stay interested that long !)

[jpjp100] 08/3/2013 15:34

markt you said (to me I think)

"I was hoping you may give some reasons why you think the shares are a buy now at over 50p...other than 'plans afoot' or 'more attractive as a takeover candidate'.....not good buying reasons in my opinion....."

The only 'reason' I can give for buying at those levels (50p+) is that the trend is up and I like up trends.

(see my post #153 though too)

[jpjp100] 08/3/2013 15:32

someone posted on the other thread that there is a bit of a buzz about the company now - it is being repeatedly tipped (maybe read ramped) and has (even) been discussed on CNBC !!! (a sure sign of retail punters being dragged in to book some profit for institutions imo)

That, to me, is a warning that the top might not be too far away now.

You know, once a taxi driver gives you a share tip, take it as a warning, when the elevator bell boy gives you a tip on the same day as the taxi driver, sell every share you have... that sort of warning.

I have some pretty tight stops in place on my holding now - well above the average cost of my holding and not far below 50p. If I have a chance to move my stops up above my last buy in price and leave 10% or so clear, I will (stops to 53p as soon as there is a trade at 59p).

If I get stopped out, I may come back in. If I don't get stopped out in the period between now and the day after the interims, I will relax things a bit.

[dashton42] 08/3/2013 13:34

Presumably this is on the printed Investors Chronicle hitting the newsstands today. On re-reading the tip update, it was pretty bullish.

There does seem to be a bit of a "buzz" around this company at the moment; I never thought I'd hear it discussed on CNBC.

[spaceparallax] 08/3/2013 11:21

or more likely you're simply on the wrong track

[markt] 08/3/2013 11:17

maybe the longs should pay me a retainer, looks like when I post the price goes up !
(maybe it brings out a defensive streak in the longs.....triggering them to buy a few more !)

[markt] 08/3/2013 11:16

BTW
I had some around 21-24p area.....
I was hoping you may give some reasons why you think the shares are a buy now at over 50p...other than 'plans afoot' or 'more attractive as a takeover candidate'.....not good buying reasons in my opinion.....

but if you buy/hold 'cause you are a fan of the MD, or have made money so far, so hoping for more, those are valid enough reasons I guess

5.7p diluted EPS....without including any gain from possible product. cost reductn. (which may be eaten up by increased wages or reduced margin and never arrive).....for 52-54p share price ..I cant see the attraction....(maybe the attraction is to people that exclude the 10M new shares recently issued and the 12M share options, ie. exclude reality)

[spaceparallax] 08/3/2013 09:34

Looking very positive

[this_is_me] 07/3/2013 23:49

Another tick up

[jpjp100] 07/3/2013 21:17

If I had done the analyses that you are suggesting when the share price was 11p, 14p and 21p I might never have bought even a single FIF share.

Which would have been a shame.

As to my thoughts on the value of the shares above 50p... I will repeat from my previous post...

...the share price nudges over 50p. I add some more to my holding as I think that either there are plans afoot or (maybe more likely) the company has just become massively more attractive as a takeover candidate itself. In either case, maybe I can make a few bob.

Nowhere have I said that I think the shares are cheap (at any price), nor have I made any reference to the EPS or P/E ratio.

I may well be proved right and make a few bob, or I may well be proved wrong and lose the potential profits in my holding just now, or even the whole value of the holding. I don't know any more than you do about what will actually happen compared to what I think are the most likely scenarios and I am not in the business of making recommendations about where other people should invest their hard earned.

The only thing I would say to you (markt) is that I think you are letting the past (i.e. pre the current CEO) cloud your judgement. Whether that proves to be sensible or not, only time will tell.

For me, buying in at 11, 14 and 21 were (with the benefit of hindsight) good calls. Will buying more above 50p be a good call.... I don't know.

[markt] 07/3/2013 16:38

Just had a look at the Cenkos broker note

Interesting that they have reduced forecast EPS for 2013 and 2014
to 6.3p and 6.1p...reduces to approx. 5.7p when diluted for all options.

5.7p !

( 5.7p if use adjusted profit from 2012 account, 4.3M and diluted number of shares of 75M (ouch !), 53M (2012 shares +10 new shares issued+12M options)

(I gave rough guesstimate of adj. EPS of around 6p, by adjusting previous adj. EPS by the increased number of shares (which in fact reduces to approx. 5p when you take into account the many options to be added, 11.4M options ! )) (maybe FIF should change its name to "Dilution" !)

If likely diluted EPS is in fact around 5.7p, P/E of 9.1) then I cant understand why anyone would want to buy FIF shares at 52p, looks to me like P/E of around 10....which looks approx. fairly valued (and if ingredients go up in price, or gas or wages, then the P/E looks to high)
(noting this includes no profit increase in the future if new machinery does in fact reduce costs and increase op. margin...one assumes it wont be bought, installed and up and running for a while yet, especially if need to build a building for it first...)

jp, you think FIF is cheap at 52p and EPS of 5.7p ? can I ask why ? (apart from your confidence in the 2 exec. dirs)

(nett tangible assets is low imo but gone +ve for first time in a while; current assets were -ve last year !; the share issue may have been pushed by the banks imo noting that large repayment was getting close to due...and debt went up last year and combined with -ve current assets in last accounts)
-----

JP
you're not concerned about the wages topic ?
wages cost up 6% last year, approx. 3M.....60% of the PAT
on tight margins.....a possible problem area for FIF
(imo FIF should be making, or needs to make, much higher profits from its increased turnover than it is achieving...)
If wages costs go up 3% per year but sales stay flat....easy to calculate the big resulting reduction in PAT.
The profit per worker, profit wrt labour costs and profit wrt to sales, not good imo. But everyone has their own preferences.

risk of 1 year of bad results is very real imo, due to 1 of numerous factors.
over at SWL for example 2 big customers have reduced orders slightly and massive effect on all the numbers, debt up, moved to loss making etc.
Not saying it will happen at FIF, but the share price needs price in something for risk imo.
(Danone sales are down, laying off 900 staff, tabacco cos. report lower sales in Europe.....)

[spaceparallax] 06/3/2013 20:06

Can you be more specific on how many years back?

[markt] 06/3/2013 16:40

jp
if you have bt. more....what do you see the EPS as ?
I estimated as 6p adjusted EPS...as 1/5th lower than last year
more shares, 10.4M more. to have 64M (ADVFN number, may be wrong)

and the number of shares also needs to be checked to include large option packages
-----

raised millions at around 90p X years ago.
50p now.

'nuff said (ie. terrible performance for shareholders).

[markt] 06/3/2013 16:25

"current CEO "
....perf./manag. of the new 2 main execs. seems fairly OK, but so much use of the word "challenging" in accounts....that if co. performance stumbles, they'll just say 'we'll we kept warning you of the risks, not our fault'

(new acquisitions may be difficult due to monopoly/competition rules)

retail sector....risky sector imo in the UK...spending seems unlikely to go up...on the other hand, people have kept buying cakes etc ever since the subprime crisis started, so probably not going to stop now.

FIF, share price seems to be related to whether it rains or not in Ukraine and USA wheat fields, interesting.